VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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Like a mathematical proof. Here goes, the short version:
----------------The Long Version, for those who want to debate--------------
1. 2014 and 2015 seasons are roughly equal in difficulty. If anything, 2015 schedule slightly easier, because (1) Oklahoma game is at home, and (2) 2015 Arkansas team (pre-season Top 25) somewhat weaker than 2014 Ole Miss team (Top 10 finish, #3 in country at game time).
2. Team 119 seen as more talented than Team 118. Vols return almost all the starters and most of the 2014 two-deep. The few key contributing seniors lost to graduation are more than offset by all the new incoming talent. Additionally, all the 23 freshmen who played in 2014 are now sophomores with a full year of experience and development under their belts.
3. Josh Dobbs in 2014 was worth 10 additional points per game. In the first 7 games of the year, without Dobbs, average Tennessee score was 24. In the final 6 games, with Dobbs, average score was 34. Both halves of the schedule had tough games (Oklahoma, Georgia and Ole Miss early, Alabama and Mizzou late) and easy games (Utah State, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga early, Vandy and Kentucky late). So the extra 10 points did NOT come from the schedule being significantly easier.
4. There is value to the counter-argument that the OLine got better as the year progressed, contributing to higher offensive scores. Okay, I'll give you that. We'll split the 10 additional points in half, give credit for 5 to the OLine and 5 to Dobbs.
5. With 5 additional points per game in the first half of the season, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida (lost by 3 and 1 points, respectively). Even if Josh had only been the backup to Worley in the Georgia game, even if he'd only been in the 3rd quarter, we'd have won ... at least one of Peterman's three futile offensive drives would have resulted in points with Dobbs.
6. Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, we would've gone 8-4 in 2014, rather than 6-6.
7. Combine Point 1 and Point 6 = 8-4 in 2015.
8. And that's the "floor" ... because in addition to having Dobbs, we also have a more seasoned and talented team in 2015 than we had in 2014. Who knows how much more that adds.
9. Conclusion: 8-4 is an entirely reasonable expectation in 2015, with possibility or even more. The Oklahoma and Missouri games, in particular, look to be ripe for reversal in 2015.
- 2014 and 2015 seasons roughly equal in difficulty.
- Team 119 more experienced+talented than Team 118.
- Josh Dobbs worth +10 points per game in 2014. Scored 24 ppg in Worley-led games, 34 ppg in Dobbs' games.
- Even with counter-argument that OLine got better as the year progressed, give half the credit (5 ppg) to Dobbs.
- With 5 additional ppg in early games, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida.
- Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, Vols would have gone 8-4 in 2014.
- Combine Point 1 and Point 6 == 8-4 in 2015.
- That's the floor; with more seasoned/talented team in 2015, could be even better.
- Conclusion: 8-4 minimum reasonable expectation, 9-3 or even 10-2 not outlandish possibilities.
----------------The Long Version, for those who want to debate--------------
1. 2014 and 2015 seasons are roughly equal in difficulty. If anything, 2015 schedule slightly easier, because (1) Oklahoma game is at home, and (2) 2015 Arkansas team (pre-season Top 25) somewhat weaker than 2014 Ole Miss team (Top 10 finish, #3 in country at game time).
2. Team 119 seen as more talented than Team 118. Vols return almost all the starters and most of the 2014 two-deep. The few key contributing seniors lost to graduation are more than offset by all the new incoming talent. Additionally, all the 23 freshmen who played in 2014 are now sophomores with a full year of experience and development under their belts.
3. Josh Dobbs in 2014 was worth 10 additional points per game. In the first 7 games of the year, without Dobbs, average Tennessee score was 24. In the final 6 games, with Dobbs, average score was 34. Both halves of the schedule had tough games (Oklahoma, Georgia and Ole Miss early, Alabama and Mizzou late) and easy games (Utah State, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga early, Vandy and Kentucky late). So the extra 10 points did NOT come from the schedule being significantly easier.
4. There is value to the counter-argument that the OLine got better as the year progressed, contributing to higher offensive scores. Okay, I'll give you that. We'll split the 10 additional points in half, give credit for 5 to the OLine and 5 to Dobbs.
5. With 5 additional points per game in the first half of the season, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida (lost by 3 and 1 points, respectively). Even if Josh had only been the backup to Worley in the Georgia game, even if he'd only been in the 3rd quarter, we'd have won ... at least one of Peterman's three futile offensive drives would have resulted in points with Dobbs.
6. Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, we would've gone 8-4 in 2014, rather than 6-6.
7. Combine Point 1 and Point 6 = 8-4 in 2015.
8. And that's the "floor" ... because in addition to having Dobbs, we also have a more seasoned and talented team in 2015 than we had in 2014. Who knows how much more that adds.
9. Conclusion: 8-4 is an entirely reasonable expectation in 2015, with possibility or even more. The Oklahoma and Missouri games, in particular, look to be ripe for reversal in 2015.
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