The Simple Case for 8-4 or Better in 2015

[Doyle Hargraves]

Tennessee will be 8-4 with loses to Oklahoma,Florida,Alabama and Missouri.

I'm not sure that I agree with you. I can understand having doubts about Florida due to the streak, but what really concerns you so much about Missouri? Aren't they losing a lot of starters from last season?
I will somewhat go along with you on bama and Oklahoma but I feel like we could beat either one of them if we are healthy and play a solid game.

This is the first time in years that I look at the schedule and feel that Tennessee could realistically win most of the games.

 

[casetopia]

Tennessee will be 8-4 with loses to Oklahoma,Florida,Alabama and Missouri.

I agree. Have to assume losses against these 4 teams until we prove we can beat them.

 

[Dave1967]

I'm not sure that I agree with you. I can understand having doubts about Florida due to the streak, but what really concerns you so much about Missouri? Aren't they losing a lot of starters from last season?
I will somewhat go along with you on bama and Oklahoma but I feel like we could beat either one of them if we are healthy and play a solid game.

This is the first time in years that I look at the schedule and feel that Tennessee could realistically win most of the games.

I think Tennessee will beat Missouri in Knoxville in 2016 but I can't see them winning in Columbia,Missouri this season.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

...the stats involving Dobbs are misleading. Dobbs faced the portion of the schedule loaded with defenses that were turds. Except Missouri. And Missouri didn't really have a whole lot of difficulty with the Dobbs led offense.

So you wouldn't count Alabama or their defense. Just Missouri. Ok.

And you think Utah State, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga don't weaken the first half of the schedule, balance it out. Ok.

You may have missed all this, it's in Point 3 of the "long version" of the OP. The two halves of the 2014 season were of roughly equal difficulty, all considered.

The 10 ppg difference between the first half the season and the second half is a pretty solid and defensible stat delta. And you certainly don't have to give Dobbs all the credit for that, but it doesn't take even half of it for him to be the difference between a 6-6 season and an 8-4 one, statistically speaking.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Most people who believe 2015 is shaping up to be somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2 will list Alabama plus some combination of Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas as their 2 to 4 losses. The people who have got Florida inside their heads will add the Gators in that mix.

Those who place high value on venue will mark the Florida, Alabama, and Missouri away games as the particular boogabears. They'll tend more toward 9-3.

Those who extrapolate religiously from past into future will underscore Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and (to a lesser extent) Missouri. These folks will lean more toward 8-4.

However you parse it out, the season looks graphically kind of like this (posted it a month or so ago, so apologies if you've already seen):

However high we can climb each of those hills, it's shaping up to be an exciting year of football. Which is, darn it all, still six months away....

 

[joevol33]

Worley would have been praised as one of the better QB's in the SEC if the OL had been even mediocre in pass protection. Since they were horrible... not so much. Whatever he lacked vs Dobbs in mobility he would have made up for by being a more polished passer... if the OL had played better.

I agree. I don't care how good gurley done that day, Justin was great and I honestly think we win that game had he not got hurt.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I agree. I don't care how good gurley done that day, Justin was great and I honestly think we win that game had he not got hurt.

Or, even if he had got hurt (as he did), if Josh had been his backup instead of Nate. The 3rd Qtr was largely abysmal, offensively. And didn't need to be.

 

[Ericvol2096]

Here is proof that our program is rising. If you took last years ESPN preseason positional ratings you would have this average with a few positional weightings.

Here would have been last years using the x2 QB and 1.5 OL/DL formula

2014
1. Alabama - 121
2. Auburn - 106.5
3. SC - 98.5
4. LSU - 95.5
5. Georgia - 93.5
6. Missouri - 92.5
7. Miss St - 89
8. Ole Miss - 88.5
9. Florida - 88
10. Texas A&M - 78.5
11. Tennessee - 46.5
12. Arkansas - 43
13. Kentucky - 31
14. Vandy - 29

That projected
SEC West
1. Alabama (0)
2. Auburn (-2)
3. LSU (-2)
4. Miss St (+2)
5. Ole Miss (+2)
6. A&M (0)
7. Arkansas (0)

SEC East
1. SC (-4)
2. UGA (0)
3. Missouri (+2)
4. Florida (+1)
5. TN (+1)
6. Kentucky (0)
7. Vandy (0)

Total deviation from final standings was 14 spots (one spot per team)...really not that terrible. Only one team had more than 2 spot deviation.

So if you take this years ratings (granted we don't have DB or ST yet) the standings would look like this.

2015
1 - Tennessee - 84
1 - Auburn - 84
3 - Alabama - 77
4 - Georgia - 74.5
5 - Missouri- 71.5
6 - Miss St - 70
7 - LSU - 68.5
8 - Arkansas - 63.5
9 - Texas A&M - 63
10 - Ole Miss - 48
11 - Florida - 47
12 - South Carolina - 39
13 - Kentucky - 34
14 - Vandy - 16

SEC West
1 - Auburn
2 - Alabama
3 - Miss St
4 - LSU
5 - Arkansas
6 - Texas A&M
7 - Ole Miss

SEC East
1 - Tennessee
2 - Georgia
3 - Missouri
4 - Florida
5 - South Carolina
6 - Kentucky
7 - Vandy

The way Jones has turned around the roster is nothing short of remarkable.

 

[OrangeMagic]

9. Conclusion: 8-4 is an entirely reasonable expectation in 2015, with possibility or even more. The Oklahoma and Missouri games, in particular, look to be ripe for reversal in 2015.[/SIZE]

I don't know about Missouri, they have 175 years in redshirts and their average age is 28

 

[JC61]

Oh, yeah, I agree Worley was brilliant vs. Georgia. But Worley only played 3 quarters of that game. It was specifically the quarter that Peterman QB'd, the 3rd quarter, where Dobbs would almost certainly have made a significant difference.

I mentioned that in the write-up, above, you must've missed it because of small font.

roger...didn't miss it entirely and will agree the 3rd qtr hurt...but it was Gurley who made the difference for UGA in that game...stop him that day and you stop the dogs...JMHO

not sure a cold, limited practice Dobbs would have done much better at that point in the season, but is worth the discussion and probably couldn't have fared worse than Petterman did in the game.

 

[orangeluvr]

The bar is set to low, no room for overachieving . :ermm:

 

[VFL-82-JP]

roger...didn't miss it entirely and will agree the 3rd qtr hurt...but it was Gurley who made the difference for UGA in that game...stop him that day and you stop the dogs...JMHO

not sure a cold, limited practice Dobbs would have done much better at that point in the season, but is worth the discussion and probably couldn't have fared worse than Petterman did in the game.

Well, just look how Dobbs did two weeks later when he came into the Alabama game halfway through the first quarter. For being cold and freshly out of his red shirt, he sure looked pretty good. No reason to think he wouldn't have done the same coming off the bench in the 3rd Qtr at Georgia.

 

[JC61]

Well, just look at how a "cold, limited practice" Dobbs did two weeks later when he came into the Alabama game halfway through the first quarter. For being cold and freshly out of his red shirt, he sure looked awesome. No reason to think he wouldn't have done the same coming off the bench in the 3rd Qtr at Georgia.

As for Gurley, yeah, I'm totally with you. But not just Gurley ... Cooper too, that guy almost single-handedly got the Dawgs off to a 14-0 lead even before our offense got off the bus and into the stadium. I think he had 150 yards and two TDs in the first 7 minutes of the game. Those two guys were the 1-2 punch for Georgia that day.

And yet we still almost beat them, if not for that 3rd Qtr with Peterman at the helm.

I appreciate your efforts putting your position together and not trying to knock it overall....and, I'm willing to concede Dobbs would have been a better option - he was brilliant against Bama after a week of knowing he was going to be in the game. I simply think Gurley was the primary different that given day.

I'm not trying to nitpick, but think you're confusing games a bit...the VOLS jumped to a 10 - 0 lead on UGA last year...then let them score 3 unanswered...Don't think anyone scored in the 3rd...but the 4th kinda became a tit-for-tat as far as scoring....including our own miscue with the endzone fumble.

Cooper about single-handedly beat the VOLS in the bama game....and another Cooper almost did for SCAR.

///BREAK///

I actually like your analysis over all and agree our team should be much better this year. I am not willing to concede a single game this year and truly believe they can be competitive in them all....keeping it close will give more opportunities for victory!

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I appreciate your efforts putting your position together and not trying to knock it overall....and, I'm willing to concede Dobbs would have been a better option - he was brilliant against Bama after a week of knowing he was going to be in the game. I simply think Gurley was the primary different that given day.

I'm not trying to nitpick, but think you're confusing games a bit...the VOLS jumped to a 10 - 0 lead on UGA last year...then let them score 3 unanswered...Don't think anyone scored in the 3rd...but the 4th kinda became a tit-for-tat as far as scoring....including our own miscue with the endzone fumble.

Cooper about single-handedly beat the VOLS in the bama game....and another Cooper almost did for SCAR.

///BREAK///

I actually like your analysis over all and agree our team should be much better this year. I am not willing to concede a single game this year and truly believe they can be competitive in them all....keeping it close will give more opportunities for victory!

Haha, yeah, you grabbed my initial response too quickly for me to pull the 'Bama part of it back. I was indeed getting the two games confused for a minute. Quickly realized, and went back and pulled the Cooper paragraph out, but you'd already begun your reply. My bad.

 

[Ericvol2096]

I can take the illustration further by showing you what OUR point total was for 2012 (supposed to be the breakout year for Dooley and 2013 along with 2014 and 2015 (which we still have DB and ST points to come).

The apostrophe is what those ranked compared to the totals I put together for 2014, can't do all the schools for those old years.



2012
79 points (10th)
2013
54 points (11th)
2014
46.5 points (11th)
2015
84 points with two more groups to go!

FOLKS!

 

[ballou1024]

Absolutely. 1 good scramble by him and we kick the game winning field goal.

If Dobbs would have been inserted into the game instead of Peterman the GA game would have been a victory.

 

[albedo33]

My concern is that Dobbs is not exactly built like an oak. If our only QB with experience goes down in the first quarter of the first game (It happened once before), then we're playing an entire season with true freshmen at QB. And neither one is named Manning.

 

[IndianapolisVol]

Ferguson resurfaced in Juco in KS.

 

[volfaninutah]

That small font tho, needless to say DNR that part. Good proof though, hopefully thats how it works out. I wonder if we win the east with wins over georgia/florida and losses to bama/mizzou/arkansas. Assuming the other loss is oklahoma.

We take Ga, Fla, :thumbsup:Mizzou this year, Arky is a toss-up, OK is close too. Everyone knows we own SC. We lose three at the most.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I'll also say that this reasoning doesn't really work. If I applied the same logic to Florida.....and said the game with Idaho isn't cancelled and give them 5 more points per game because....hey, their offense can't be worse....., they go 10-2 last season.

I think every rational person knows that if Florida had a decent QB the last 2 years, they would be the best team in the East. The problem you guys have, is you don't have a guy like Dobbs on your team.

Dobbs' ability to be the best QB in the SEC is what has many projecting Tennessee to do big things in 2015. Because outside of QB, we're not more talented than Florida or Georgia.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

My concern is that Dobbs is not exactly built like an oak. If our only QB with experience goes down in the first quarter of the first game (It happened once before), then we're playing an entire season with true freshmen at QB. And neither one is named Manning.

you can say that about every team in college football outside of Ohio State. I think everyone who is projecting 9+ wins does so with the assumption Dobbs will be healthy all season. obviously no one expects a true freshmen to lead this team to the SEC championship.

 

[Catbone]

Tennessee will be 8-4 with loses to Oklahoma,Florida,Alabama and Missouri.

I think we take Missouri and lose UGA

 

[Evet Vols]

Here is proof that our program is rising. If you took last years ESPN preseason positional ratings you would have this average with a few positional weightings.

Here would have been last years using the x2 QB and 1.5 OL/DL formula

2014
1. Alabama - 121
2. Auburn - 106.5
3. SC - 98.5
4. LSU - 95.5
5. Georgia - 93.5
6. Missouri - 92.5
7. Miss St - 89
8. Ole Miss - 88.5
9. Florida - 88
10. Texas A&M - 78.5
11. Tennessee - 46.5
12. Arkansas - 43
13. Kentucky - 31
14. Vandy - 29

That projected
SEC West
1. Alabama (0)
2. Auburn (-2)
3. LSU (-2)
4. Miss St (+2)
5. Ole Miss (+2)
6. A&M (0)
7. Arkansas (0)

SEC East
1. SC (-4)
2. UGA (0)
3. Missouri (+2)
4. Florida (+1)
5. TN (+1)
6. Kentucky (0)
7. Vandy (0)

Total deviation from final standings was 14 spots (one spot per team)...really not that terrible. Only one team had more than 2 spot deviation.

So if you take this years ratings (granted we don't have DB or ST yet) the standings would look like this.

2015
1 - Tennessee - 84
1 - Auburn - 84
3 - Alabama - 77
4 - Georgia - 74.5
5 - Missouri- 71.5
6 - Miss St - 70
7 - LSU - 68.5
8 - Arkansas - 63.5
9 - Texas A&M - 63
10 - Ole Miss - 48
11 - Florida - 47
12 - South Carolina - 39
13 - Kentucky - 34
14 - Vandy - 16

SEC West
1 - Auburn
2 - Alabama
3 - Miss St
4 - LSU
5 - Arkansas
6 - Texas A&M
7 - Ole Miss

SEC East
1 - Tennessee
2 - Georgia
3 - Missouri
4 - Florida
5 - South Carolina
6 - Kentucky
7 - Vandy

The way Jones has turned around the roster is nothing short of remarkable.

Pretty neat to see in black and white how the teams lined up last year and this year.

 

[RollerVol]

Ha! I did major in aero engineering in college, but that was a few years (okay, a few decades) before Josh

I thought you had something up your sleeves besides hairy arms. eace2: :salute:

GO VOLS!