SamRebel35
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I really think you should read the book. You are arguing against everything that is addressed there. I can't scribe whole chapters of the book to present the argument with all of the data and intertwined views.
I will quote this. In that paper that I cited above, the author states that:
"..play calling of NFL teams shows "systematic and clear cut" departures from the decisions that would maximize their changes of winning. Based on data from more than 700 NFL games, [the author] identified 1,068 fourth-down situations in which, statistically speaking, the right call would have been to go for it. The NFL teams punted 959 times. In other words, nearly 90% of the time, NFL coaches made the sub-optimal choice."
Now, I am sure you are asking if this stuff is so clear cut, why doesn't anyone use it. The answer is because most people think about football, including coaches and managers/owners, just like you do. There is a prevailing wisdom, no matter how incorrect, that is totally risk-averse. Seriously, this whole book is dedicated to debunking some of the same things you are saying.
4th and 8 from the opponent's 35 yard line. Your QB hasn't completed a pass in 5 attempts. Your O line has given up 6 sacks so far in the game. You have a field goal kicker that has made 88% from inside the 40. What do you do?