Tenn absent from Creme's Bracketology

[gerryladon]

It will be hard (imo) but Rutgers got in one year at like 18-12. There is no room for error at this point and them being Tennessee will give them the benefit of the doubt in the committees eyes. If they don't make it, hopefully it will be a wake up call to Holly that she has to right the ship.

I have been hard on her but I really don't want to see her lose her job because of how much I know this program means to her but the definition of insanity is very clear and we can't continue to do the same things over and over again expecting different results.

Let's get it together ladies! Right the ship and shock the world. It is in you, you have to let it out, play for the name on the front of your jersey and not what would be on the back of it and play together despite what your feel Holly can or can't do. The pieces are there, the execution isn't and that has to be corrected by everyone involved!

Go Lady Vols!

So funny

 

[Volfan2012]

We can definitely get back in need to win the next three at home. We need to beat Stanford. I think it comes down to winning all the non-conference games left except Notre Dame and finishing 8 and 8 in the conference.
That would give us a 16 and 13 record. We would then have to win a couple in the SEC Tourney. It doesn't look like an easy road to prevent missing the tourney but still hope. I think it takes 18 wins to get in.

 

[Amb3096]

Wait, so you say we should expect a lot from a veteran team. Then you say that severe injuries at once to 3 of our most veteran players is making excuses.

Recall that we'd already beaten Cuse earlier in the year whilst we were playing a much lower level of basketball than we were in post season.

And you say that Reynolds and Carter have never been good players. Then you chide HW for not developing or winning with "Top 50 Talent" that includes both Reynolds and Carter.

You're playing both sides with the same facts, Amb.

Tennessee's three best players this year - Mercedes, Diamond and Jaime - are all upperclassmen. They were all starters last year. That's a veteran team.

I wouldn't call last year's team a veteran team because other than Bashaara, their top players were playing key roles for Tennessee for the first time. Sure, Andraya and Jordan were upperclassmen (along with Bashaara), but those two guards were considered the weak points of the team despite the fact that they were upperclassmen. Their spotty play was a large reason why the team was as bad as they were. Sure, they were top 50 recruits, but at the same time, Holly didn't do a very good job of developing their skills. They were terrible. Blaming a loss on the absence of those two would be like if Alexa got hurt next year and the team underachieved, and people blamed it on the fact that Alexa was injured. She is a non-factor as a player, just as Jordan and Andraya were last year.

 

[mike099]

coach sucks. team sucks. nothing new here.

Your avatar gives me the creeps. Looks like Charles manson. Yes it pretty much sucks!

 

[Trixietrouble]

It's early in the season, so I suspect Bracketology will look very different from what the final version looks like.

What's alarming is that there is a very high likelihood that Tennessee will not have a single non-conference win against a decent team if they don't beat Stanford (they have no chance vs. ND). With how weak the SEC is this year, even if they finish above 50-50 in the standings, it's highly likely that they won't get an at-large bid if their best wins are against the likes of Alabama, LSU and Auburn.

This.

The Stanford game is absolutely critical.

 

[mike099]

This.

The Stanford game is absolutely critical.

Agree, but Stanford runs a good offense and plays solid defense. They love to back door on offense.

 

[LA Vol]

UT would be a hugely desirable destination job, and I can't see why anyone would think otherwise. Few programs can offer what UT does-- the resources, the history, the prestige, the fan support, the Lady Vols name and pedigree. The next coach wouldn't be following Pat-- Holly's already done that and, given the opportunity and potential the program offers, almost any elite coach will think they can build on what's already in place.

That said, the new AD is unlikely to replace a female coach his first year OTJ-- even if the LVs fail to make the tourney for the first time in history.

 

[armchair]

yes, let's suffer through another year of embarrassment before letting Warlick go. It doesn't take a genius to see that this should be the first move that the next AD makes.

 

[Franklin Pierce]

Keep one thing in mind about 4 and 5 Star recruits; the majority of them turn out to be Average college players.
Russell was the number 1/2 ranked high school player, but is an average, to slightly above average, college player.

Holly will be around at least one more season, and will return all players from this year's team with the exception of Nunn and Reynolds.

If the Lady Vols have a bad season next year Holly may need to go.

This season just got started and the team could show significant improvement the rest of the way.

 

[LVJeff]

Football and men's basketball pays the bills thru television contracts, endorsement and licensing deals, and big-spending donors. Keeping those people happy is an AD's first job. Athletic departments rake in huge amounts of money and spend every penny of it on an arms-race of athletic venue improvements and football and men's basketball coaches salaries. The current model is unsustainable according to several sports economists - but it's the model the new UT AD will be operating in.

I don't claim to know what will happen to Warlick, but I have difficulty believing that an incoming AD will have as his/her very first task the job of replacing her.

 

[Amb3096]

Keep one thing in mind about 4 and 5 Star recruits; the majority of them turn out to be Average college players.
Russell was the number 1/2 ranked high school player, but is an average, to slightly above average, college player.

These have been the #1 HS players since 2000:

2016 - Lauren Cox
2015 - Katie Lou Samuelson
2014 - Aja Wilson
2013 - Mercedes Russell
2012 - Breanna Stewart
2011 - Kaleena Mosqueda Lewis
2010 - Chiney Ogwumike
2009 - Britney Griner
2008 - Elena Delle Donne
2007 - Maya Moore
2006 - Tina Charles
2005 - Courtney Paris
2004 - Candace Parker
2003 - Brittany Hunter
2002 - Ann Strother
2001 - Shyra Ely
2000 - Diana Taurasi

All of them were college stars and either conference All teams/POY or collegiate AAs with the exception of Lauren Cox (first year), Mercedes (jury still out), and Brittany Hunter (limited due to injuries). Players that were ranked #1 coming out of high school by and large have been standouts as collegiate players. To have a #1 HS player not be a collegiate impact player would be highly unusual.

 

[Pat4life]

Russell 7 touches in the paint, she was average 7 during our losses last year, one span 4 touches a game, and that's not gonna get it done!

This young lady has aspirations, its just sad, she 's not surrounded by guards most of those true back to the basket centers had Courtney, tina, Griner.

Russell has personal goals too, AA, All SEC performer, she has to get double digit touches to be in discussion for All SEC and etc, she needs better guard and wing play.

She needs more space! Go Russell. AA, one or two years, would be nice, and SEC performer would be nice too but she needs help, aye stay on the glass, that'll help.

 

[1CHATTVOL]

These have been the #1 HS players since 2000:

All of them were college stars and either conference All teams/POY or collegiate AAs with the exception of Lauren Cox (first year), Mercedes (jury still out), and Brittany Hunter (limited due to injuries). Players that were ranked #1 coming out of high school by and large have been standouts as collegiate players. To have a #1 HS player not be a collegiate impact player would be highly unusual.

I agree with Amb on this one. #1 HS players tend to do well in college. It usually takes posts longer to develop.

 

[Amb3096]

It usually takes posts longer to develop.

I don't think the theory that posts take longer to develop is true. There have been plenty that have come in ready to play on Day 1, and a lot of them weren't necessarily top 10 players either. Based on the #1 list I posted earlier, there are 11 post players. All of them were immediate impact players as freshmen, with the exception of Hunter/Russell who had injury issues and Cox (who still has time to prove herself this year).

 

[Coffy73]

lmao. I realize this is going to sound like a broken record but Holly needs to go...in a bad kind of way. If she misses out on the tournament, for the first time in UT's existence, God help her. It's beyond embarrassing at this point. Talk about the class she has coming in next year all you want. I have no confidence that she can coach them either.

Doesn't matter who they're getting in next year or the next, either way those players won't get developed! I don't know why anyone worth anything would commit to Tenn.? They won't grow, they'll stagnate with Holly.

 

[madtownvol]

UT would be a hugely desirable destination job, and I can't see why anyone would think otherwise. Few programs can offer what UT does-- the resources, the history, the prestige, the fan support, the Lady Vols name and pedigree. The next coach wouldn't be following Pat-- Holly's already done that and, given the opportunity and potential the program offers, almost any elite coach will think they can build on what's already in place.

That said, the new AD is unlikely to replace a female coach his first year OTJ-- even if the LVs fail to make the tourney for the first time in history.

The problem is that bonafide elite coaches are by definition rare and generally tied to their programs. Is Mulkey likely to leave Baylor or Tara Stanford or Muffett Notre Dame; or let's go there Geno exit Uconn. The answer in all cases is no. Maybe enough money could tempt Brenda Frese away from Maryland but that too seems like a long shot. More likely, a hypothetical replacement would come form someone who has had success at a historically lesser program and the gamble would be that this coach could scale up his/her success. I.e. a situation much like the football vols have been in since Fulmer's exit.

You never know how these things go. I would have thought Nikki Fargas (formerly Caldwell) would have been hugely successful. She did wonders at UCLA but her time at LSU has been a disappointment (a program with history and resources).

 

[teacherdean]

We signed nobody last year--that is a firing offense. And the year before that we signed two players, also not good. Anybody who thinks next year's class is going to make us better is delusional. We've got considerable talent on this team--they just don't perform and don't respond to our coach or staff. When a coach, eight games into a season with a veteran team, tells you after the fourth loss in a row that she's proud that her team competed, you've got major problems. That should not even be a consideration. It's bad enough that our fundamentals and our system and our /basketball/ often stinks, but we have effort problems too! Oh, my.

A lot of our Holly is the greatest thing since can soup must not listen or watch other women's basketball games. Several talke about the talent we have but are not producing positive results. Most seem to be puzzled why we are not playing better with the talent on this team. Unlike male announcers of male programs, they fall just short of calling Holly inept. They say such things as Tennessee will get it together. We need to pull off the blinders and realize that we are going down hill. The sad part is we are headed down hill when we have the tools to stop our downhill slide.

 

[Pat4life]

Most announcers, use the moniker we have talent, just cos it nice to say, but look at our roster, who would any of those coaches love to have on their team besides Nared, Green, Cooper and Russell .

 

[Volfan2012]

From my point of view Dunbar is just as good a defender as Reynolds and a much better scorer. Reynolds is giving us less than five points from the point guard position and Middleton playing there is a lot of turnovers. I think if were going to win this season may have to let Diamond play the point and put Dunbar and Middleton at the shooting guard with Nared at the three. I think we need Nunn inside for rebounding with Russell. Reynolds gets a few minutes relieving Diamond at the point.
I don't see any other option except keeping a three point threat in the lineup at all times. Reynolds has been a big failure as a scorer if she can't come around we'll keep losing.
She has to be able to average 10 to 12 points on less than 10 shots if she can't do that and we can't find someone who can the losses with keep coming in SEC play.

 

[LA Vol]

The problem is that bonafide elite coaches are by definition rare and generally tied to their programs. Is Mulkey likely to leave Baylor or Tara Stanford or Muffett Notre Dame; or let's go there Geno exit Uconn. The answer in all cases is no. Maybe enough money could tempt Brenda Frese away from Maryland but that too seems like a long shot. More likely, a hypothetical replacement would come form someone who has had success at a historically lesser program and the gamble would be that this coach could scale up his/her success. I.e. a situation much like the football vols have been in since Fulmer's exit.

You never know how these things go. I would have thought Nikki Fargas (formerly Caldwell) would have been hugely successful. She did wonders at UCLA but her time at LSU has been a disappointment (a program with history and resources).

Yes, elite coaches are rare and hiring one is challenging. The ones you mention are as indelibly linked to their programs as Pat was to UT. Then you have Dawn Staley, Cori Close, Jeff Walz, etc.-- not easy to land, but approachable. UT is the #2 program all-time in WCBB, and we have a roster of AAs, so it's an enticing job. UT is unlikely to make a coaching change any time soon, but this is a program that positions a coach to recruit the talent to win championships.

 

[lvocd]

I don't claim to know what will happen to Warlick, but I have difficulty believing that an incoming AD will have as his/her very first task the job of replacing her.

Agreed. As some others have said, regardless of how this season plays out she'll have next season, at the very least, to show vast improvement. The outstanding job the staff did to pull in the top-ranked recruiting class bought her at least another season, probably more.

I want very much for Holly Warlick to succeed. No-one I know wants her to go out feeling like a failure after all the love and loyalty she's given the program and the university. But in the end, if there's not drastic improvement over the next 18 months, then we'll have no choice but to thank her for all her many years as a tremendously loyal and well-liked Lady Vol For Life and place the whistle into the next hands to carry the program forward.

 

[mike099]

Agreed. As some others have said, regardless of how this season plays out she'll have next season, at the very least, to show vast improvement. The outstanding job the staff did to pull in the top-ranked recruiting class bought her at least another season, probably more.

I want very much for Holly Warlick to succeed. No-one I know wants her to go out feeling like a failure after all the love and loyalty she's given the program and the university. But in the end, if there's not drastic improvement over the next 18 months, then we'll have no choice but to thank her for all her many years as a tremendously loyal and well-liked Lady Vol For Life and place the whistle into the next hands to carry the program forward.

Not the best solution, but hopefully in the off season, Holly will look at cutting loose one of the assistants(Dean?) and hiring an offensive coach similar to what South Carolina did with Balcomb.

 

[WVU05UT09]

UT would be a hugely desirable destination job, and I can't see why anyone would think otherwise. Few programs can offer what UT does-- the resources, the history, the prestige, the fan support, the Lady Vols name and pedigree. The next coach wouldn't be following Pat-- Holly's already done that and, given the opportunity and potential the program offers, almost any elite coach will think they can build on what's already in place.

That said, the new AD is unlikely to replace a female coach his first year OTJ-- even if the LVs fail to make the tourney for the first time in history.

Largely true, but I think a lot of people would be surprised at the coaches that would turn the other way if this job were open simply due to some of the "extras" that come with this program. For lack of a better terminology there are a lot of potentially problematic entrenched personalities both inside and outside of the program and UT that many people--especially the up and coming generation of coaches do not want to do deal with. Inside the program we are talking both general and sport specific administrative and support personnel. Outside we are talking journalists, boosters, people of special interest who've had unfiltered access going back to the 1980's, and former employees. Many of them now take it upon themselves to defend all things Pat Summit. In some cases that's good. At other times it can drive people away.

As an example, Jeff Walz of Louisville will never be the coach at UT. You will see Jeff Walz at Tennessee Tech before he is ever at UT. Why? If you recall back when Holly was under a lot heat last year certain individuals with fairly significant profiles linked to the LV program took to social media attacking his character and labeling him a cheater. Should these people matter? Probably not, but anyone coaching at UT will have to minimize their influence and deal with them constantly digging around your program if they don't like something you are doing because "its not what Pat would have done".

 

[Hard Knox]

Interesting analysis...

 

[T.J.]

From my point of view Dunbar is just as good a defender as Reynolds and a much better scorer. Reynolds is giving us less than five points from the point guard position and Middleton playing there is a lot of turnovers. I think if were going to win this season may have to let Diamond play the point and put Dunbar and Middleton at the shooting guard with Nared at the three. I think we need Nunn inside for rebounding with Russell. Reynolds gets a few minutes relieving Diamond at the point.
I don't see any other option except keeping a three point threat in the lineup at all times. Reynolds has been a big failure as a scorer if she can't come around we'll keep losing.
She has to be able to average 10 to 12 points on less than 10 shots if she can't do that and we can't find someone who can the losses with keep coming in SEC play.

Good points on Jordan!

I don't get her at all. She's a basketball player wearing a Lady Vol uniform. As a kid she must had watched Candace Parker, Shannon Bobbitt, Alexis Hornbuckle et al play the game?! Why wouldn't she not want to hunt for her shots to score? I don't get it. She's a big guard. She should be given her team at least 10 pts a game AT LEAST! She's actually taken up space and doing the team a disservice by not being offensive minded. I could see if her scoring is down but her assists numbers were up but their not so there is that.

I had such high hopes for Jordan but you are correct. J.R. is a senior and if she's not producing sit her down and put Kortney Dunbar into the game.
Starting 5
Diamond
Jaime
Kortney
Shaquilla
Mercedes
Might as well?