So What ARE the Odds We Win Out??

#104
#104
volfannbama said:
The argument here is that the games are independent, so any mathmatical equation which adds when together would not apply. Also, all these numbers do is make people seem smarter than what they are and make alot of people money in Vegas. But every game is actually 50/50.
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So the odds are even that Vandy goes undefeated next year?
 
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#105
#105
I like our chances to win out, we've already had our annual embarrassing breakdown, hopefully the second chance at Bama we'll give them a fight.
 
#107
#107
volfannbama said:
But every game is actually 50/50.
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Kinda weird how people trying to learn how this works either eventually have the light bulb come on, or they regress even further to the "on/off switch" analogy.

I don't know why the ones who won't get it go backwards that way, but we see it over and over again.
 
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#108
#108
TAF said:
You-play-to-win-the-game.gif
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Well most teams do
 
#109
#109
VFL-82-JP said:
Kinda weird how people trying to learn how this works either eventually have the light bulb come on, or they regress even further to the "on/off switch" analogy.

I don't know why the ones who won't get it go backwards that way, but we see it over and over again.
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Well to me, in a game, stats mean nothing. Unless you are betting money, the only reason stats matter are to make people feel smart about what they are talking about. Prior to the SC game, the vols had nearly an 80% chance of winning, with 4 seconds to go in the UGA game they had a 99% chance of winning, all meaningless.
 
#111
#111
volfannbama said:
Unless you are betting money, the only reason stats matter are to make people feel smart about what they are talking about.
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Yeah, but see that's not really true in your life.

Earthquake hits: you going outside, away from buildings, or huddling inside? Outside, of course. Why? Because your chances aren't 50/50 in both places, they're much better outside, away from structures.

Tornado's coming: you going outside, out in the open field, or getting inside, in the sturdiest and best-protected part of the building? Inside, of course. Why? Because your chances aren't 50/50 in both places, they're much better inside a strong structure.

Gym class, wrestling: you pair up against the 250-pound brute, or the 130-pound guy? The smaller guy, if you can (everyone else is trying to get him, too). Why? Without even knowing how good either of them are at the sport, your chances are just naturally better with the guy who has less physics (mass) on his side. It's not 50/50, and you instinctively know it.

You use probability to make decisions ALL the time, dozens of times a day. And you do it without even thinking about it most of the time.

So to say that all football games are really just 50/50 to you is disingenious on your part. Alabama does not have a 50/50 chance of winning when they play Kent State. Tennessee does not have a 50/50 chance against TTU.

In short, the world is not a light switch. It's a bit more complicated than that. And we all know it, some of us just don't want to wrap our heads around understanding how.

And that's fine, if that's your thing. Me, I'd rather know the real deal. :hi:
 
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#112
#112
volfannbama said:
But every game is actually 50/50.
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You didn't directly answer the question but this statement tells me all I needed to know about your lack of understanding of probability as it relates to outcomes.

Just because there are only two possible outcomes of an event (win or loss in this case), doesn't mean that the likelihood of either occurring is equal.
 
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#113
#113
maotai said:
Last time someone used statistics in a thread I made the mistake of trying to explain statistics to the "that makes no sense" posters. God I wish I had just beat my head against a wall instead.
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I'm beginning to feel the same way. It's amazing. It's a lot like the VCR scene in City Slickers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQGgaI-BcI4
 
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#117
#117
VFL-82-JP said:
Yeah, but see that's not really true in your life.

Earthquake hits: you going outside, away from buildings, or huddling inside? Outside, of course. Why? Because your chances aren't 50/50 in both places, they're much better outside, away from structures.

Tornado's coming: you going outside, out in the open field, or getting inside, in the sturdiest and best-protected part of the building? Inside, of course. Why? Because your chances aren't 50/50 in both places, they're much better inside a strong structure.

Gym class, wrestling: you pair up against the 250-pound brute, or the 130-pound guy? The smaller guy, if you can (everyone else is trying to get him, too). Why? Without even knowing how good either of them are at the sport, your chances are just naturally better with the guy who has less physics (mass) on his side. It's not 50/50, and you instinctively know it.

You use probability to make decisions ALL the time, dozens of times a day. And you do it without even thinking about it most of the time.

So to say that all football games are really just 50/50 to you is disingenious on your part. Alabama does not have a 50/50 chance of winning when they play Kent State. Tennessee does not have a 50/50 chance against TTU.

In short, the world is not a light switch. It's a bit more complicated than that. And we all know it, some of us just don't want to wrap our heads around understanding how.

And that's fine, if that's your thing. Me, I'd rather know the real deal. :hi:
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Thats great but we are not talking about life, we are talking about football. All these stats are is opinions of what people think will happen, and therefore not factual information. So you dont really know the "real deal."
 
#118
#118
VFL-82-JP said:
Kinda weird how people trying to learn how this works either eventually have the light bulb come on, or they regress even further to the "on/off switch" analogy.

I don't know why the ones who won't get it go backwards that way, but we see it over and over again.
Click to expand...

No I dont really care, percentages in football are opinions, not actual mathmatic equations.
 
#122
#122
This thread is reminding me of Chris Rocks bit about the single mothers 6 year old....what's 2+2? Jello.
 
#123
#123
volfannbama said:
The argument here is that the games are independent, so any mathmatical equation which adds when together would not apply. Also, all these numbers do is make people seem smarter than what they are and make alot of people money in Vegas. But every game is actually 50/50.
Click to expand...

I am face palming so hard right now
 
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#124
#124
jlindsa4 said:
I am face palming so hard right now
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Its all in how you view it. I put little if any thought in probability relating to football. So I poke fun, because people seem to care about it so much. Think about what we are arguing, some guy that makes a ton of money off peoples stupidity of the subject says Tennessee has a 87.6 % of bearing Kentucky. I could say Tennessee has a 92.1% chance of bearing Kentucky. You could say they have 68.9% chance.

These three numbers have several things in common..
1. None of them are factually true
2. The are all based on someones opinion. And therefore correct for whoever wants to believe them.
3. None of them matter come noon Saturday.

The only thing these mean is that the lights are not going off in Vegas anytime soon.
 
#125
#125
volfannbama said:
Its all in how you view it. I put little if any thought in probability relating to football. So I poke fun, because people seem to care about it so much. Think about what we are arguing, some guy that makes a ton of money off peoples stupidity of the subject says Tennessee has a 87.6 % of bearing Kentucky. I could say Tennessee has a 92.1% chance of bearing Kentucky. You could say they have 68.9% chance.

These three numbers have several things in common..
1. None of them are factually true
2. The are all based on someones opinion. And therefore correct for whoever wants to believe them.
3. None of them matter come noon Saturday.

The only thing these mean is that the lights are not going off in Vegas anytime soon.
Click to expand...

Ah this is true, but the principles we are using to answer a question about the odds of winning three games are under scrutiny. These principles are what are used to calculate odds. The odds of winning three games, because these games are grouped together in this question, are not independent of one another. You are right about what you have suggested that the odds are typically never what they suggest, but given that experts have suggested Tennessee wins by a certain percentage for three games, we can actually arrive at a number based off of those percentages to satisfy what the odds are for winning all three games. Again, these percentages cannot account for everything as you have suggested, but those percentages in this scenario are not independent of one another and a very specific value can be calculated for determining the odds that Tennessee wins all three games.

Need to edit something. The odds are always are what they suggest. It is the modeling that can be under question. So how the experts arrived at those percentages can be questioned, the odds can not.
 
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