So What ARE the Odds We Win Out??

[CAVPUT]

Defense is decimated. Offensive line is average on a very good day. Berry is out which really hurts the third phase. I don't think we win out. We lose another.....and if it's this weekend, I think we lose two of the last three.

 

[Titan05]

Yes of course the probabilities are subjective.

At least give us some kind of indication that this thread has helped you understand how to calculate the probability of 3 events occurring and that you don't really believe that the two teams in a given game each have a 50/50 chance of winning. That would at least resolve your "that doesn't make sense" post on the first page.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

All these stats are is opinions of what people think will happen...

...some guy...says Tennessee has a 87.6 % of bearing Kentucky. I could say Tennessee has a 92.1% chance of bearing Kentucky. You could say they have 68.9% chance.

These three numbers have several things in common..
1. None of them are factually true
2. The are all based on someones opinion. And therefore correct for whoever wants to believe them.
3. None of them matter come noon Saturday.....

Ah, but now you're railing against specialization.

In the world today, we have specialists. It's how society has advanced, by specializing and sharing our work. One guy is good at farming. Another is good at medicine. A third is good at evaluating sports teams.

So the doctor says, "you have an 80% chance of dying if you don't have this surgery." Now, you could say, "no, I have a 20% chance. And my guess is just as valid as yours." Or you could believe the doc, because he knows a heck of a lot more about medicine than you, and get the surgery.

We acknowledge people who are better than us in many fields: doctors, mechanics, engineers, horse whisperers, and so on. But because football is just a pastime to us, we think of it as unimportant (in the grand scheme of things, it really is)...and then we make the mistake of thinking because it's relatively unimportant, any amateur could evaluate sports programs pretty much as well as the professionals.

When the professional says 88.3%, is that solid? Might it be 88.8% instead? Sure. But whether his precision is as good as he touts or not, his accuracy is almost certainly going to be a heck of a lot better than yours, because he has devoted his life to getting good at it while you're just doing it occasionally, for fun.

And that seems to be just about where you are, at this point in the conversation, Volfannbama. :good!:

 

[volfannbama]

Yes of course the probabilities are subjective.

At least give us some kind of indication that this thread has helped you understand how to calculate the probability of 3 events occurring and that you don't really believe that the two teams in a given game each have a 50/50 chance of winning. That would at least resolve your "that doesn't make sense" post on the first page.

Yes of course I know probabilities. I have the LOVE of math beat into my head because again, I have an ee wife that loves math and two smart kids that share the same.

I simply think that probabilities in football are all crap and put absolutely zero thought into any of them.

 

[Titan05]

Oh good. Glad we could help. :thumbsup:

 

[volfannbama]

Ah, but now you're railing against specialization.

In the world today, we have specialists. It's how society has advanced, by specializing and sharing our work. One guy is good at farming. Another is good at medicine. A third is good at evaluating sports teams.

So the doctor says, "you have an 80% chance of dying if you don't have this surgery." Now, you could say, "no, I have a 20% chance. And my guess is just as valid as yours." Or you could believe the doc, because he knows a heck of a lot more about medicine than you, and get the surgery.

We acknowledge people who are better than us in many fields: doctors, mechanics, engineers, horse whisperers, and so on. But because football is just a pastime to us, we think of it as unimportant (in the grand scheme of things, it really is)...and then we make the mistake of thinking because it's just a pastime, it's all for amateurs, and we're just as good at evaluating programs as the professionals.

When the professional says 88.3%, is that solid? Might it be 88.8% instead? Sure. But whether his precision is as good as he touts or not, his accuracy is almost certainly going to be a heck of a lot better than yours, because he has devoted his life to getting good at it while you're just doing it occasionally, for fun.

And that seems to be just about where you are, at this point in the conversation, Volfannbama. :good!:

All true, professionals that have devotes their life to politics told us Trump had no shot to win.

Ive learned something about America over time. He have the incredible ability to make the simple, complicated which creates "specialized" jobs. For instance, I am remodeling a house and need to replace an 80" door. So I go buy an 80in door, slap it in the hinges and close it, one inch gap at the bottom. So I take it back, tell them this isnt an 80 inch door. He says Yes Sir, an 80 in door is 79 inches. A carpenter buddy of mine explained this idiocy to me. My reply, "Why not call it a 79 in door?"

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Not sure how to decode that last one, Volinnbama. Are you saying that specialists are good to depend on, because a carpenter wouldn't have wasted time and money buying the wrong door? Or are you saying that specialists are not good to depend on, because they can sometimes get things wrong? You kind of made both points, though they're contradictory.

Look, when a specialist tells you, "this team has an 88% chance of winning," or "this candidate has only a 10% chance of winning the election," or "if you don't get surgery, you have an 80% chance of dying," none of them are telling you that something is certain to happen. Not once did they say anything was certain. They only communicated likelihoods.

So if the team loses, or the candidate wins, or you refuse surgery and still live, that does NOT mean the specialist was wrong. It only means that the less likely thing happened. Which happens sometimes; that's why the percentages are bigger than 0%.

That still doesn't make you a better carpenter than the carpenter, or a better doctor than the doctor, or a better political analyst than the political analyst...or a better sports predictor than the ESPN FPI statisticians. They all have you beat in their fields.

But if it makes you feel better, the doctor and political analyst and statistician may all have bought the same wrong door you did. You at least have that going for you.

 

[volfannbama]

Not sure how to decode that last one, Volinnbama. Are you saying that specialists are good to depend on, because a carpenter wouldn't have wasted time and money buying the wrong door? Or are you saying that specialists are not good to depend on, because they can sometimes get things wrong? You kind of made both points, though they're contradictory.

Look, when a specialist tells you, "this team has an 88% chance of winning," or "this candidate has only a 10% chance of winning the election," or "if you don't get surgery, you have an 80% chance of dying," none of them are telling you that something is certain to happen. Not once did they say anything was certain. They only communicated likelihoods.

So if the team loses, or the candidate wins, or you refuse surgery and still live, that does NOT mean the specialist was wrong. It only means that the less likely thing happened. Which happens sometimes; that's why the percentages are bigger than 0%.

That still doesn't make you a better carpenter than the carpenter, or a better doctor than the doctor, or a better political analyst than the political analyst...or a better sports predictor than the ESPN FPI statisticians. They all have you beat in their fields.

But if it makes you feel better, the doctor and political analyst and statistician may all have bought the same wrong door you did. You at least have that going for you.

Im saying it should take a specialist to buy an 80 in door, the 80 in door should be 80 in.