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Date: Saturday, October 27th
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Network: SEC
Well folks, Tennessee made it through the most brutal portion of it's schedule, mostly improving along the way, and snagging a snazzy new victory over Auburn, breaking several rather inconvenient streaks. Before the season, this game looked a bit more daunting, but most people thought the Vols would be a bit better now as well. As it stands, we've got a 3-4 Tennessee who has played an absolutely brutal schedule, and a 3-3 South Carolina, that really doesn't have a quality win at all. However, the Gamecocks have only lost to ranked opponents (UGA, KY, A&M) and played A&M really close. Their win over Mizzou is sorta good, but it came down to a last second FG and featured their back-up quarterback playing the entire game. There is an argument to be had that they many not have won that had Jake Bentley (who I have downplayed since his freshman year) played. This should be a fun write-up. Let us go.
Keys to Victory:
These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I'm going to look at key position/group match-ups this week to try to discern the edge.
1. TN OL vs SC DL: We know the weaknesses of the TN OL, so let's look at the SC DL. The SC defense has done a decent job at rushing the passer, which is terrible news for JG, but has not been great against the run. They lack size, but are quick, and return who many believe is their best defensive player in DJ Wonnum. In the interior, Kinlaw is tough to run past, but TN may have better luck outside of the tackles. With South Carolina giving up 4.2 YPC, Tennessee has an opportunity to do work. Unfortunately, the pass rush will create some problems for JG, and the passing game has been our strength, so this is a mixed bag. Edge: TN... ever so slight.
2. SC OL vs TN DL: South Carolina features a solid 5 on the offensive line. Their strength is pass blocking, and the running game is pretty solid, at 4.6 YPC. The good news is, if Tennessee is able to generate some pressure on Bentley, he is willing to turn the ball over, having thrown 7 INT's so far. Edge: SC... ever so slight.
3. Coaching: In a game of evenly matched teams, it often comes down to coaching decisions and turnovers. Coach Pruitt really wanted SC OC Bryan McClendon to coach WR's at Tennessee, but he took the SC promotion to OC. He hasn't been phenomenal. A lot of the growing pains Tyson Helton has experienced has been mirrored in McClendon. I really like the edge Pruitt has against McClendon, and I think he's going to dial up problems for SC all day long.
Everything I just said, you can flip 100% for Muschamp vs. Helton. That's likely going to be a problem. Edge: Push.
4. WR's vs DB's: WR is likely the strongest position for each team. The Vols would really like to get Josh "catch dem all" Palmer back this week if he recovers from his concussion, and Jennings has begun to come into his own. Callaway needs to step up this week after ghosting against Bama. The Vols will have to go up against two really good CB's in former Vol commit Jaycee Horn, and Rashad Fenton. They are weak at safety though, and this is a big plus for the Vols, as Callaway should be able to boss people around, and Helton should be drawing up ways to target the middle.
The SC WR's are good, but have struggled with some drops. Samuel, Edwards and Smith statistically match Callaway, Jennings, and Palmer on the year, though they are obviously completely different players, it shows you there is comparable production there.
Quarterbacks are a part of this equation, and personally, I'm taking JG over Bentley because of his propensity to not turn the ball over, therefore... Edge: Vols.
5. Variables: As we can see, it looks like it's going to be a very close game, so here are a few completely unknown variables to consider going forward.
a. Night Game: Generally, that's a home edge.
b. Bye-week: South Carolina had one. Generally, that's an edge, but not always.
c. Homecoming: Can go either way. Extra hype for the home team, slight towards the Vols, or absolutely nothing at all.
d. Post Bama Fatigue: It's real. Play Bama, recovery is awful, more injuries, etc. Also, what is the team mentality now? Pruitt chewed a little tail. Does the team bounce back or hang their heads?
Prediction: The goal is for Tennessee to be on top of the SEC East. Last season, we were on the bottom. This season, we should be able to overtake Vandy. Next year, KY and Mizzou will regress, and the Vols will overtake them. South Carolina is that next step, the third rung in the SEC east ladder (outside of KY's run this year). This game has been a nail biter for years. It is a winnable game for Tennessee and I would not be surprised at all to see the Vols take it, but for me, it's just a bit early. The game goes 4 quarters, maybe even final possession, but unless there is a turnover edge (SC does turn it over folks) I think maybe it's just not our week.
TN 21
SC 23
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Network: SEC
Well folks, Tennessee made it through the most brutal portion of it's schedule, mostly improving along the way, and snagging a snazzy new victory over Auburn, breaking several rather inconvenient streaks. Before the season, this game looked a bit more daunting, but most people thought the Vols would be a bit better now as well. As it stands, we've got a 3-4 Tennessee who has played an absolutely brutal schedule, and a 3-3 South Carolina, that really doesn't have a quality win at all. However, the Gamecocks have only lost to ranked opponents (UGA, KY, A&M) and played A&M really close. Their win over Mizzou is sorta good, but it came down to a last second FG and featured their back-up quarterback playing the entire game. There is an argument to be had that they many not have won that had Jake Bentley (who I have downplayed since his freshman year) played. This should be a fun write-up. Let us go.
Keys to Victory:
These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I'm going to look at key position/group match-ups this week to try to discern the edge.
1. TN OL vs SC DL: We know the weaknesses of the TN OL, so let's look at the SC DL. The SC defense has done a decent job at rushing the passer, which is terrible news for JG, but has not been great against the run. They lack size, but are quick, and return who many believe is their best defensive player in DJ Wonnum. In the interior, Kinlaw is tough to run past, but TN may have better luck outside of the tackles. With South Carolina giving up 4.2 YPC, Tennessee has an opportunity to do work. Unfortunately, the pass rush will create some problems for JG, and the passing game has been our strength, so this is a mixed bag. Edge: TN... ever so slight.
2. SC OL vs TN DL: South Carolina features a solid 5 on the offensive line. Their strength is pass blocking, and the running game is pretty solid, at 4.6 YPC. The good news is, if Tennessee is able to generate some pressure on Bentley, he is willing to turn the ball over, having thrown 7 INT's so far. Edge: SC... ever so slight.
3. Coaching: In a game of evenly matched teams, it often comes down to coaching decisions and turnovers. Coach Pruitt really wanted SC OC Bryan McClendon to coach WR's at Tennessee, but he took the SC promotion to OC. He hasn't been phenomenal. A lot of the growing pains Tyson Helton has experienced has been mirrored in McClendon. I really like the edge Pruitt has against McClendon, and I think he's going to dial up problems for SC all day long.
Everything I just said, you can flip 100% for Muschamp vs. Helton. That's likely going to be a problem. Edge: Push.
4. WR's vs DB's: WR is likely the strongest position for each team. The Vols would really like to get Josh "catch dem all" Palmer back this week if he recovers from his concussion, and Jennings has begun to come into his own. Callaway needs to step up this week after ghosting against Bama. The Vols will have to go up against two really good CB's in former Vol commit Jaycee Horn, and Rashad Fenton. They are weak at safety though, and this is a big plus for the Vols, as Callaway should be able to boss people around, and Helton should be drawing up ways to target the middle.
The SC WR's are good, but have struggled with some drops. Samuel, Edwards and Smith statistically match Callaway, Jennings, and Palmer on the year, though they are obviously completely different players, it shows you there is comparable production there.
Quarterbacks are a part of this equation, and personally, I'm taking JG over Bentley because of his propensity to not turn the ball over, therefore... Edge: Vols.
5. Variables: As we can see, it looks like it's going to be a very close game, so here are a few completely unknown variables to consider going forward.
a. Night Game: Generally, that's a home edge.
b. Bye-week: South Carolina had one. Generally, that's an edge, but not always.
c. Homecoming: Can go either way. Extra hype for the home team, slight towards the Vols, or absolutely nothing at all.
d. Post Bama Fatigue: It's real. Play Bama, recovery is awful, more injuries, etc. Also, what is the team mentality now? Pruitt chewed a little tail. Does the team bounce back or hang their heads?
Prediction: The goal is for Tennessee to be on top of the SEC East. Last season, we were on the bottom. This season, we should be able to overtake Vandy. Next year, KY and Mizzou will regress, and the Vols will overtake them. South Carolina is that next step, the third rung in the SEC east ladder (outside of KY's run this year). This game has been a nail biter for years. It is a winnable game for Tennessee and I would not be surprised at all to see the Vols take it, but for me, it's just a bit early. The game goes 4 quarters, maybe even final possession, but unless there is a turnover edge (SC does turn it over folks) I think maybe it's just not our week.
TN 21
SC 23
