Josh Dobbs (merged)

[BigOrangeTrain]

You guys seem to be confused as to what I criticize the so-called "draft experts" for. I don't criticize their sources and connections when it comes to projecting where guys will go in the draft. They have sources in front office and with scouts so their information on that regard is solid.

My criticism has always been about how good the players they are evaluating will be in the NFL. I don't trust their player evaluations because I believe my evaluation skills are better. What I have never claimed to know better than them is where and when guys will be drafted. I've only claimed to know whether the guys will be good or not better than the so-called "draft experts". That is all.

But how can you say your evaluation skills are better when they have been right far, far, far more than you have?

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

But how can you say your evaluation skills are better when they have been right far, far, far more than you have?

They haven't.

Thus far I've only put out 2 full draft rankings. 2017 and 2018. The 2017 class just completed their rookie years and the 2018 class haven't even started training camp yet.

I would wait a few years before you claim they know better than me. There's a lot of football yet to be played.

 

[bamawriter]

They haven't.

Thus far I've only put out 2 full draft rankings. 2017 and 2018. The 2017 class just completed their rookie years and the 2018 class haven't even started training camp yet.

I would wait a few years before you claim they know better than me. There's a lot of football yet to be played.

I think it says a lot that your 2016 rankings no longer count.

 

[TDawg]

I think it says a lot that your 2016 rankings no longer count.

By this time next year, he will probably stop counting the 2017 ones too. Hard to drop the lowest test score when you have multiple good options to choose from.

 

[bamawriter]

By this time next year, he will probably stop counting the 2017 ones too. Hard to drop the lowest test score when you have multiple good options to choose from.

Go back and look at his "busts" list from 2016. It's absolutely unreal.

Oh, and his "Day 3 Steals":

1. RB Jonathan Williams (Bills) - will be a starting RB in the league

Had 27 carries his rookie year, has been cut twice, and didn't make a roster his sophomore season.

2. QB Kevin Hogan (Chiefs) - shocked he went this low...I think he has Kirk Cousins potential...can be a good starter

Got cut by the Chiefs out the gate. Got a start for the Browns. Even in the long, unfortunate list of Browns starting QBs, Hogan's performance made a strong case for the worst of the bunch.

3. RB Kelvin Taylor (49ers) - will be the second best RB from this class...reminds me of Frank Gore

Signed six different contract with five different teams in less than 2 years. Just spent his second straight offseason without participating in OTAs. Has never been active on game day.

 

[hndog609]

Go back and look at his "busts" list from 2016. It's absolutely unreal.

Oh, and his "Day 3 Steals":



Had 27 carries his rookie year, has been cut twice, and didn't make a roster his sophomore season.



Got cut by the Chiefs out the gate. Got a start for the Browns. Even in the long, unfortunate list of Browns starting QBs, Hogan's performance made a strong case for the worst of the bunch.



Signed six different contract with five different teams in less than 2 years. Just spent his second straight offseason without participating in OTAs. Has never been active on game day.

If there was real money to be had betting against all of D4H's predictions you'd be in Jeff Bezos tax bracket at this point.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Go back and look at his "busts" list from 2016. It's absolutely unreal.

Oh, and his "Day 3 Steals":



Had 27 carries his rookie year, has been cut twice, and didn't make a roster his sophomore season.



Got cut by the Chiefs out the gate. Got a start for the Browns. Even in the long, unfortunate list of Browns starting QBs, Hogan's performance made a strong case for the worst of the bunch.



Signed six different contract with five different teams in less than 2 years. Just spent his second straight offseason without participating in OTAs. Has never been active on game day.

Remember, guys like Bosa are still going to be busts....eventually.

 

[TDawg]

Remember, guys like Bosa are still going to be busts....eventually.

And Goff, though D4Hs track record for QBs and QB knowledge is just awful but Goff will suddenly come back to earth.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I think it says a lot that your 2016 rankings no longer count.

Where did I ever say that? Have you yet to see me back off Kevin Hogan becoming a solid NFL starting QB? Have you seen me give up any ground on Jared Goff being a bust? Have you seen me say that Joey Bosa is good? Nope. I still stand by EVERYTHING I said about the 2016 class.

I'm just telling you that I didn't spend that much time actually studying that class as I did with the 2017 and 2018 drafts. Most of those takes were from me just watching those guys on TV during college football season. After I saw how popular my 2016 draft review was I actually became serious in 2017 and started to fully scout almost every player that was at the combine and eligible to be drafted. Its how in 2017 I correctly identified Dylan Cole (Texans) and Matt Brieda (49ers) as steals who went undrafted. I never actually saw them play college football during the season, however, I did scout them in the off-season and saw they were NFL caliber players and cited them in my draft review as guys to watch who could develop into good NFL players.

2017 and 2018 were more comprehensive efforts on my part that I would want compared to the so-called "draft experts". 2016 was just me having fun and throwing some names out there that I liked from what I saw while watching college football. It wasn't me doing actual scouting like I did the last 2 years.

Also if you look at my 2016 draft review and compare it to 2017 and 2018 its clear to see that 2017 and 2018 were far more comprehensive efforts.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Go back and look at his "busts" list from 2016. It's absolutely unreal.

Oh, and his "Day 3 Steals":

Had 27 carries his rookie year, has been cut twice, and didn't make a roster his sophomore season.

Got cut by the Chiefs out the gate. Got a start for the Browns. Even in the long, unfortunate list of Browns starting QBs, Hogan's performance made a strong case for the worst of the bunch.

Signed six different contract with five different teams in less than 2 years. Just spent his second straight offseason without participating in OTAs. Has never been active on game day.

Jonathan Williams is currently on the Saints and looking like he'll be a big time contributor this season. Jonathan Williams working as Saints' No. 2 running back - Jonathan Williams News

I still stand by him as a talent. I believe he'll be a very good running back in the NFL. With Mark Ingram out for the first 4 games, he should get a chance to prove himself alongside Alvin Kamara on the Saints. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays well enough that the Saints trade or release Mark Ingram next season.

Kevin Hogan was traded to the Redskins. I still like his potential to be a starter in the NFL. In 3-4 years, Jared Goff will be out of the league or on the bench while Kevin Hogan is a solid starter. I've very confident about that.

Kelvin Taylor is my only miss among the names you listed. I still stand by my evaluation of his talent. However, I underestimated his desire. I think being the son of an NFL player made him less hungry than his peers to succeed. I'm now gonna have to take into account guys background cause Kelvin Taylor should not be out of the league already. His talent level is good enough to still be in the NFL. But its obvious he lacks the hunger to play the game because he doesn't feel he needs to with a father who played in the NFL and made some good money.

 

[bamawriter]

I still stand by EVERYTHING I said about the 2016 class...

2016 was just me having fun and throwing some names out there that I liked from what I saw while watching college football.

So you stand by everything while you were just having fun?

So, Kelvin Taylor is still the 2nd best back in the 2016 draft, and Jonathan Williams the 3rd best. Kevin Hogan and Christian Hackenberg are the second and third best QBs in the 2016 draft. Williams, Taylor, and Hogan are still the late round steals from the 2016 draft. Myles Jack is the best overall player in the 2016 draft. Jaylen Ramsey is not that great of a prospect. Robert Nkemdiche was the steal of the 2016 first round. Goff, Bosa, Buckner, Floyd, and Decker are all busts.

You stand by all of the above.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

And Goff, though D4Hs track record for QBs and QB knowledge is just awful but Goff will suddenly come back to earth.

Goff will have another good season statistically this year because of all the talent around him. Remember the Rams had the most players named to the All-Pro team last year of any team. They also had the Offensive Player of the Year (Todd Gurley) as well as the Defensive Player of the Year (Aaron Donald). They just acquired a bunch of elite Pro Bowl caliber players like Ndamakong Suh, Marcus Peters, Aquib Talib, and Bradin Cooks. Oh yeah and they have a genius head coach.

The only reason the Rams have been able to surround him with all this talent is because everyone on the team is on rookie contracts right now. They just paid Brandin Cooks. They'll next have to pay Aaron Donald. After that it'll be Todd Gurley. And eventually Jared Goff will have to paid as well. Once that happens, Goff will be exposed because the team won't have the depth it has now. It won't have all this talent making him look good. He'll be exposed as the bum I've been saying he is.

With that said, the Rams are my pick to play in the Super Bowl this year against the Steelers. Dobbs will beat them in Atlanta to start his LEGEND.

 

[bamawriter]

Jonathan Williams is currently on the Saints and looking like he'll be a big time contributor this season. Jonathan Williams working as Saints' No. 2 running back - Jonathan Williams News

And the Saints signed a free agent RB after that blurb was written.

I still stand by him as a talent. I believe he'll be a very good running back in the NFL. With Mark Ingram out for the first 4 games, he should get a chance to prove himself alongside Alvin Kamara on the Saints. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays well enough that the Saints trade or release Mark Ingram next season.

You were convinced that Ingram was getting bounced last season.

Kevin Hogan was traded to the Redskins. I still like his potential to be a starter in the NFL. In 3-4 years, Jared Goff will be out of the league or on the bench while Kevin Hogan is a solid starter. I've very confident about that.

You were convinced that once Hogan started for the Browns he wouldn't relinquish the job. He was a putrid garbage fire, and immediately gave the job back to Kizer. The Browns then traded him for a ham sandwich.

Kelvin Taylor is my only miss among the names you listed. I still stand by my evaluation of his talent. However, I underestimated his desire. I think being the son of an NFL player made him less hungry than his peers to succeed. I'm now gonna have to take into account guys background cause Kelvin Taylor should not be out of the league already. His talent level is good enough to still be in the NFL. But its obvious he lacks the hunger to play the game because he doesn't feel he needs to with a father who played in the NFL and made some good money.

What do you know of the guy's desire? Or any guy's desire, for that matter?

I've asked you, on numerous occasions, to break down some of Taylor's college game film for me. You "like what you saw," but you seem surprisingly unwilling to actually discuss "what you saw."

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

So you stand by everything while you were just having fun?

So, Kelvin Taylor is still the 2nd best back in the 2016 draft, and Jonathan Williams the 3rd best. Kevin Hogan and Christian Hackenberg are the second and third best QBs in the 2016 draft. Williams, Taylor, and Hogan are still the late round steals from the 2016 draft. Myles Jack is the best overall player in the 2016 draft. Jaylen Ramsey is not that great of a prospect. Robert Nkemdiche was the steal of the 2016 first round. Goff, Bosa, Buckner, Floyd, and Decker are all busts.

You stand by all of the above.

That was pre-microfracture surgery. I clearly said after that news came out that Ezekiel Elliott is my pick for being the best player from that class. I know you haven't forgotten that's why Myles Jack went from consensus top 10 pick before the draft to a second rounder.

I notice you didn't mention that I had Sterling Shepard being the best wide receiver even though he was a 2nd round pick. While I also correctly cited Corey Coleman who went in the top 15 as a bust. You're also omitting the fact that I had Carson Wentz as my top ranked QB. If you're going to go back over all my supposed misses, why not mention my hits as well?

With that said, I stand by my picks. ALL OF THEM. However, I never claimed to be right about all of them. For example, I have already admitted that Hackenberg was a huge miss. Same with Dak Prescott. After I saw that, I retooled my QB evaluation methods for the 2017 and 2018 classes. With regard to Jalen Ramsey he's a lot better than I thought he would be. I compared him to Antonio Cromartie before the draft. I thought he would be a decent CB who would make a couple of Pro Bowls. I didn't think he had best CB in the NFL potential. Right now I'm in wait and see mode. I'm waiting to see if he can repeat his 2017 form in 2018. If he does, I'll admit I was wrong about him as well.

But when it comes to Joey Bosa and Jared Goff? HELL NO. I feel pretty good about them being fool's gold right now. Unlike ya'll, I watch tape. And I can tell that these guys are not as good as their current production. However, I can tell that Jalen Ramsey is.

 

[bamawriter]

After I saw that, I retooled my QB evaluation methods for the 2017 and 2018 classes.

What did you change? What did you do differently?

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

And the Saints signed a free agent RB after that blurb was written.



You were convinced that Ingram was getting bounced last season.



You were convinced that once Hogan started for the Browns he wouldn't relinquish the job. He was a putrid garbage fire, and immediately gave the job back to Kizer. The Browns then traded him for a ham sandwich.



What do you know of the guy's desire? Or any guy's desire, for that matter?

I've asked you, on numerous occasions, to break down some of Taylor's college game film for me. You "like what you saw," but you seem surprisingly unwilling to actually discuss "what you saw."

NEWSFLASH: Please cite when I have ever said I am 100% right?

I've only claimed to be much better than the so-called experts. So you can continue to nitpick my 2016 prospect rankings. I'm confident that my efforts in 2017 and 2018 will prove that I'm far better than the NFL at their own game. I've said many times before that 2016 was just a trial run. It was me just throwing it out there for fun. After the response to it, I went for the more serious comprehensive draft analysis in 2017 and 2018.

The 2017 and 2018 classes will be the ones that prove I am FAR BETTER than the so-called experts. I've already got them beat when it came to Alvin Kamara. And there is only more to come. Especially when Josh Dobbs blows, I will have totally beaten the so-called experts given the importance of the QB position and finding studs at the position late in the draft.

 

[Burger]

That was pre-microfracture surgery. I clearly said after that news came out that Ezekiel Elliott is my pick for being the best player from that class. I know you haven't forgotten that's why Myles Jack went from consensus top 10 pick before the draft to a second rounder.

I notice you didn't mention that I had Sterling Shepard being the best wide receiver even though he was a 2nd round pick. While I also correctly cited Corey Coleman who went in the top 15 as a bust. You're also omitting the fact that I had Carson Wentz as my top ranked QB. If you're going to go back over all my supposed misses, why not mention my hits as well?

With that said, I stand by my picks. ALL OF THEM. However, I never claimed to be right about all of them. For example, I have already admitted that Hackenberg was a huge miss. Same with Dak Prescott. After I saw that, I retooled my QB evaluation methods for the 2017 and 2018 classes. With regard to Jalen Ramsey he's a lot better than I thought he would be. I compared him to Antonio Cromartie before the draft. I thought he would be a decent CB who would make a couple of Pro Bowls. I didn't think he had best CB in the NFL potential. Right now I'm in wait and see mode. I'm waiting to see if he can repeat his 2017 form in 2018. If he does, I'll admit I was wrong about him as well.

But when it comes to Joey Bosa and Jared Goff? HELL NO. I feel pretty good about them being fool's gold right now. Unlike ya'll, I watch tape. And I can tell that these guys are not as good as their current production. However, I can tell that Jalen Ramsey is.

You watch highlight films.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

What did you change? What did you do differently?

I actually started watching film for starters. In 2016 I just went off what I saw on TV a couple of times as well as hype. I told you that 2016 was not that serious on my part. I didn't expect you guys to have as much fun picking apart everything I said so I didn't actually put that much time and effort into it. After that year I realized that if I wanted to be right more often that I had to actually watch film and evaluate rather than just going off a couple of games on TV.

I also didn't give intangibles and work ethic a lot more weight in 2016. I was just looking at the athlete rather than looking at the person as well. This is where Dak excelled but Hackenberg didn't.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

You watch highlight films.

Only to start with. My thinking is this, if you can't look good in your highlights, its unlikely you're any good when I start watching full game performances. So yes, I do start off with the highlight tape.

If I like a players highlights, then I look for breakdowns of their performances in full games like this: Josh Allen vs Boise State 2017 - YouTube

Thankfully there is a large community of people obsessed with the draft putting material like this out there on almost every draft prospect (outside of the offensive lineman). Which is why I've said multiple times that I'm not good at evaluating offensive lineman. Nobody actually has tape of them on YouTube like they do the other positions. And I also don't have the time to watch full game broadcasts of every draft eligible offensive lineman to see if they are actually good.

 

[bamawriter]

I actually started watching film for starters.

Let's talk about that. You've posted links to videos of whistle-to-whistle cut-ups of certain players. I would consider that fairly weak film study, especially because you've indicated that you watch a very limited number of games, even in cut-up form.

But aside from that, your take away from watching film or games or whatever raises a lot of questions. Let's take an obvious example:

Following the Georgia Tech game, you pointed out that UT had a bad scheme in place to defend the triple option. I don't think anyone would argue against that. However, you also said this:

I loved the athleticism and pursuit I saw on the field. I loved the fact the coaches have made Micah Abernathy and Nigel Warrior our starting safeties. I love the fact Daniel Bituli and Darrell Taylor emerged as stars. I love the fact KMac was able to play as many snaps as he did showing how much his conditioning improved. Overall I just loved the way our players looked on defense physically. They looked explosive and in great shape. They are set up for a great year in conference play.

I loved the speed and passion we played with. Guys we flowing to the football extremely well. I also loved how our players physically looked. KMac looked in phenomenal shape. I also loved the conditioning of our guys to play as many snaps as they did.

Overall I saw a lot more positives from the defense MOVING FORWARD than negatives...

...There's nothing a traditional offense can point to from Monday night and say we can attack that (other than Justin Martin). Everything else we struggled with was related solely to the option scheme and has no bearing on the rest of our opponents.

And you said these things after claiming to have rewatched the game. In fact, you said you felt even better about UT's defense after rewatching the game.

Well, as we all know, Week 1 was a harbinger of the things to come in Weeks 2 thru 12. The "athleticism" and "pursuit," the "explosive" players "flowing to the ball" with "speed and passion" eventually produced the worst rushing defense in Tennessee history and one of the worst in the 85 year history of the SEC.

So, if you liked what you saw after the Georgia Tech game, and then saw the exact same thing for the rest of the season, did you like what you saw from one of the worst ever SEC rush defenses? If you didn't like it, then what did you do wrong when studying the film? Have you recognized the flaws in your process? How are you correcting those flaws?

I'm sure you'll say you were just being a fan, because what else can you say? Otherwise your film review is not merely flawed, it's abysmal.

 

[hndog609]

NEWSFLASH: Please cite when I have ever said I am 100% right?

It's immensely amusing you act as though the threshold for pointing out your lack of demonstrable accuracy in prediction is anywhere even close to 100%.

 

[TDawg]

Jonathan Williams is currently on the Saints and looking like he'll be a big time contributor this season. Jonathan Williams working as Saints' No. 2 running back - Jonathan Williams News

I still stand by him as a talent. I believe he'll be a very good running back in the NFL. With Mark Ingram out for the first 4 games, he should get a chance to prove himself alongside Alvin Kamara on the Saints. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays well enough that the Saints trade or release Mark Ingram next season.

Kevin Hogan was traded to the Redskins. I still like his potential to be a starter in the NFL. In 3-4 years, Jared Goff will be out of the league or on the bench while Kevin Hogan is a solid starter. I've very confident about that.

Kelvin Taylor is my only miss among the names you listed. I still stand by my evaluation of his talent. However, I underestimated his desire. I think being the son of an NFL player made him less hungry than his peers to succeed. I'm now gonna have to take into account guys background cause Kelvin Taylor should not be out of the league already. His talent level is good enough to still be in the NFL. But its obvious he lacks the hunger to play the game because he doesn't feel he needs to with a father who played in the NFL and made some good money.

AGAIN, you know nothing about judging QBs ... all of us are very confident about that. You just caused fans of teams the Rams play against to get pissed because you all but now guarantee Goff will throw for 4k for the next 5 years and about 30+ TDs.

 

[butchna]

Remember, guys like Bosa are still going to be busts....eventually.

When that “luck” runs out. Or when opposing OC’s quit letting him go unblocked because Melvin Ingram is quadruple blocked?

 

[butchna]

I also wonder when teams will realize that if you just call real good plays that your quarterback will make the Pro Bowl like Jared Goff?

 

[Burger]

I also wonder when teams will realize that if you just call real good plays that your quarterback will make the Pro Bowl like Jared Goff?

Nice! Should of figured that out a very long time ago.