JK ready to be a big bright shining star

#27
#27
VinylVols said:
Yes, but we have more potential unproven talent technically. Butch now has a team full of his guys. And we have much better coaching.

I'm very certain we will surprise people this season with how well we play. I don't know if we're National Title Contenders, but I think we make the SEC Championship, and I think we win a BCS bowl.
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He had a roster full of his guys last year.
 
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#28
#28
BeardedVol said:
You do realize the sheer number of "firsts" for CBJ that would need to happen next season for us to be national title contenders, correct?

Like, beating an SECw team for the first time. Beating a Will Muschamp-coached team for the first time. Beating Florida in the swamp. Beating Alabama. Winning 7+ SEC games in a single season. Win the SECe. Win the SEC.

Taken individually, none of these are impossible (some are improbable in their own right), bur for us to really be an actual contender for the CFP, all of them have to happen...in the same season...for the first time in CBJ's tenure.
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So? Are you going to make a rational point, or just throw random fallacies out and take a stand on that?
 
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#30
#30
BeardedVol said:
You do realize the sheer number of "firsts" for CBJ that would need to happen next season for us to be national title contenders, correct?

Like, beating an SECw team for the first time. Beating a Will Muschamp-coached team for the first time. Beating Florida in the swamp. Beating Alabama. Winning 7+ SEC games in a single season. Win the SECe. Win the SEC.

Taken individually, none of these are impossible (some are improbable in their own right), bur for us to really be an actual contender for the CFP, all of them have to happen...in the same season...for the first time in CBJ's tenure.
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the only thing i would say here is, he's already had to complete some "firsts" up to this point. no reason why we shouldn't think he should be capable of adding some more to the list.

will he? different story. but just because they'd be firsts, that's not the reason they won't get accomplished.

agree on several being improbable. (SEC title, CFP, Natty).
 
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#31
#31
BeardedVol said:
If you can get past being triggered from reading a list of items that CBJ has yet to accomplish, then there's nearly an entire thread where you can learn about compound probability of independent events.
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Then by all means, make a statistical analysis of the "firsts" you mentioned. I dare you.

Because you can't. Because things like "Beat a ***-coached team..." "Beat a West team..." "Beat Florida in the swamp..." aren't really useful statistical analysis.

And further, any statistical argument that relies on something happening for the "first" time isn't, by definition, a statistical argument. It is a logical fallacy, which I'm pretty sure is mentioned in the actual thread you linked to. Look into the "Hot Hand" and associated fallacies.

So... Again... You want to make that statistical analysis? I dare you. Do it. Dig yourself a little deeper, eh?
 
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#33
#33
Doberman said:
I hope so, I love the guy, and how hard he plays.

Still not sure why so much praise (much of it unearned thus far) is heaped upon him, other than he's "our guy".

I hope he can live up to the lofty expectations being set forth for him.
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Here's what he done 2016 you decide, the 6.4 YPC is very good .
Games =11
rush att= 98
yards= 630
APC= 6.4
TD= 5
receiving= 6
yards= 51
AYC= 8.5
 
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#35
#35
sechamp2012 said:
Here's what he done 2016 you decide, the 6.4 YPC is very good .
Games =11
rush att= 98
yards= 630
APC= 6.4
TD= 5
receiving= 6
yards= 51
AYC= 8.5
Click to expand...

I wasn't aware of his stats...not bad for the 3rd back. :good!:
 
#37
#37
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
We have the talent. We have the experience. We also have a favorable schedule.

As long as Butch doesn't eff it up, we should be national title contenders.
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Favorable schedule? Lol we draw the 2 best defenses in the West. It's well documented how running backs fare against Bamas D. That will be a game if JK hits 50 yards on 20 carries would be about as good a day you could ask for. LSU side to side may be as fast as any defense in the country. Good luck getting to daylight against that defense.
 
#38
#38
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
We have the talent. We have the experience. We also have a favorable schedule.

As long as Butch doesn't eff it up, we should be national title contenders.
Click to expand...

Talent? Maybe. Experience? Not remotely close. How is the schedule favorable? Start at GaTech, still have Bama, Florida and Georgia.....and SCar and Vandy.

This team, with a brand new qb that's never taken so much as a snap from center in a relevant game, an iffy at best OL, an awful returning defense, questions all over the field....hell, with a brand new staff that still has to show it can jell and work well together, especially on game days, still needs to show it can contend for an SECe division title.

Stop with the national title talk, it ain't happening....you're even more ridiculous talking about it this year than you were last year. You were only off by 6 wins and 4 losses last year. My guess is you'll be off similarly this year.
 
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#39
#39
sechamp2012 said:
Here's what he done 2016 you decide, the 6.4 YPC is very good .
Games =11
rush att= 98
yards= 630
APC= 6.4
TD= 5
receiving= 6
yards= 51
AYC= 8.5
Click to expand...


I already have.

I've decided that I'll need to see more, and against the meat of our schedule, before I anoint him ALL-SEC.

His numbers are great, but in limited work. I just feel like many are considering Kelly the next Jamal Lewis, and I just can't get my expectations that high.....yet.
 
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#40
#40
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
John Kelly will be a Heisman finalist next year. He's that good.
Click to expand...

281.jpg
 
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#41
#41
This thread got comical real fast! Side note: John Kelly is a great back IMO but will he have any decent running lanes? I love the way he runs and especially the way he finishes runs I just hope he can get up to speed, which doesn't take long IIRC
 
#42
#42
Orange_Crush said:
Then by all means, make a statistical analysis of the "firsts" you mentioned. I dare you.

Because you can't. Because things like "Beat a ***-coached team..." "Beat a West team..." "Beat Florida in the swamp..." aren't really useful statistical analysis.

And further, any statistical argument that relies on something happening for the "first" time isn't, by definition, a statistical argument. It is a logical fallacy, which I'm pretty sure is mentioned in the actual thread you linked to. Look into the "Hot Hand" and associated fallacies.

So... Again... You want to make that statistical analysis? I dare you. Do it. Dig yourself a little deeper, eh?
Click to expand...

You could have just said, "I don't understand statistical models".

The fact that you seem to be arguing in favor of D4H's national title prediction says enough in itself.
 
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#43
#43
BeardedVol said:
You could have just said, "I don't understand statistical models".

The fact that you seem to be arguing in favor of D4H's national title prediction says enough in itself.
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Stop deflecting and give that statistical analysis you were trying to mention.

I dare you. You can't.

Did you look up the associated fallacies you're inadvertently furthering?

(Just because I point out your inabilities to form a rational argument does not mean that I am agreeing with D4H per a natty run. To infer that I am is just one more of a long line of proof that your reasoning leaves something to be desired.)
 
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#44
#44
Orange_Crush said:
Stop deflecting and give that statistical analysis you were trying to mention.

I dare you. You can't.

Did you look up the associated fallacies you're inadvertently furthering?

(Just because I point out your inabilities to form a rational argument does not mean that I am agreeing with D4H per a natty run. To infer that I am is just one more of a long line of proof that your reasoning leaves something to be desired.)
Click to expand...

*imply😁
 
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#45
#45
Orange_Crush said:
Stop deflecting and give that statistical analysis you were trying to mention.

I dare you. You can't.

Did you look up the associated fallacies you're inadvertently furthering?

(Just because I point out your inabilities to form a rational argument does not mean that I am agreeing with D4H per a natty run. To infer that I am is just one more of a long line of proof that your reasoning leaves something to be desired.)
Click to expand...

Jesus man...the math really isn't that hard. Choose whatever set of predictions you want to use as a data set, FPI, Oddshark, or whatever, and I'll do the math for you.
 
#49
#49
armchair said:
I don't think he's as good as Kamara, and he's not as big. I think Kelly is somewhat overrated, but hope I'm wrong.
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He can take it to the house. AK was a 5* special talent. I like that JK can bust through and go 70 or 80 yards. It's been a long time since we've had that type of talent.
 
#50
#50
BeardedVol said:
Jesus man...the math really isn't that hard. Choose whatever set of predictions you want to use as a data set, FPI, Oddshark, or whatever, and I'll do the math for you.
Click to expand...

If you understood statistics and the fallacy you've furthered, you would understand the problem with the above post.
 
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