Interesting Clay Travis Quote

#28
#28
esarmstrong said:
Vegas' goal: get betting action relatively evenly distributed on both sides of the line. If they accomplish that, they win. Infallibility is never their goal.
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Yep - and to do that, they factor in far more than the play on the field and final score. They factor in psychology (everyone loving Colorado), popular teams with loyal fan bases (skewing betting, and all sorts of things that I probably can't even understand.

However, purely anecdotally, when a line seems "way out of whack" it has proven to be a tell more than not. This line seems way out of whack and so I'd bet UT even though my gut reaction is "run".
 
#30
#30
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
On usce +12.5

“By the way, this is one of these Vegas lines that is so terrifying I understand if you don’t bet it at all. I’d bet 90% of the bets here are going to be on South Carolina. Which means every site is going to need the Vols big. When that happens, Vegas doesn’t lose big very often. I’m just saying.”

Vols by 13 plus. Vegas and Vols win big this weekend 🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊
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If 90% of the money is on SCjr. then the line would go down. This line says less of the money is on SCjr.
 
#31
#31
You're kidding yourself if you do not think the amount Vegas has riding on a certain outcome of the game is in play. It 100% is! Especially if it ends up being close.
 
#34
#34
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
On usce +12.5

“By the way, this is one of these Vegas lines that is so terrifying I understand if you don’t bet it at all. I’d bet 90% of the bets here are going to be on South Carolina. Which means every site is going to need the Vols big. When that happens, Vegas doesn’t lose big very often. I’m just saying.”

Vols by 13 plus. Vegas and Vols win big this weekend 🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊
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Travis is probably trying to skew bets so Vegas wins bigger. I personally think we are in trouble. Our stats look better here, but that’s misleading. USC has already played North Carolina, Georgia and Mississippi St. I mean they have to have the toughest schedule this year. In fact they do:


That said, our numbers are barely better and we have played three patsy teams and one average Florida team which we lost to.

www.espn.com

South Carolina vs. Tennessee (Sep 30, 2023) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Tennessee Volunteers NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

We shall see. I hope Cooper and Mincey are back in full form and give us another look!
 
#35
#35
knox-townVOL said:
So this is a bit confusing but I wanted to learn about this as well a while back, even though I don't bet/gamble. So this is how it works:

90% of the time, yes, this is the case, Vegas wants the money to be even. But a few times a year Vegas will make a "sucker bet" where they are very sure of a certain outcome, and equally sure that the money will come in on the other outcome. Vegas can make a killing if the overwhelming majority bets the wrong way and everyone loses a ton of money.

So in this situation for example, Vegas is very sure of 2 things:

1. Tennessee wins big
2. The big majority takes South Carolina to cover

The result will be that the big majority is wrong, so the big majority loses to Vegas.

The Tennessee-Georgia game last year did this, and it's why I was trying to convince people that it was going to be a bad night for us. Georgia opened as huge favorites, all the money came in on Tennessee, and Vegas never moved the line, they were more than happy for everyone to lose their arses betting on Tennessee to cover. When you see that happening to your team, watch out. It's going to be a rough night.

If I'm a South Carolina fan, I don't like what I'm seeing at all with this line.
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Lord please let this be true. There’s nothing I’d like more than to witness a yardbird curb-stomping in Neyland at night!
 
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#36
#36
I always find it risky to go against the people who feed their family by gambling. It's their actual job so they don't need to be right every time but they need to be right a lot to feed the kids.

We've dragged Nathan Peterman on this board but he's a professional QB and making 7 figures or near it playing QB. I'd not want to challenge his throwing skills vs mine. He's a pro. He's good with a football.

It's the same with pro gambling houses. You may think they suck, the line is wrong, but this is what they do every day to feed the kids. They aren't perfect but they definitely aren't starving. They're good with odds.
 
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#38
#38
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I always find it risky to go against the people who feed their family by gambling. It's their actual job so they don't need to be right every time but they need to be right a lot to feed the kids.

We've dragged Nathan Peterman on this board but he's a professional QB and making 7 figures or near it playing QB. I'd not want to challenge his throwing skills vs mine. He's a pro. He's good with a football.

It's the same with pro gambling houses. You may think they suck, the line is wrong, but this is what they do every day to feed the kids. They aren't perfect but they definitely aren't starving. They're good with odds.
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Exactly. This opening line was no accident like Travis is trying to imply. LV has their formulas, inside info., etc to determine these opening betting lines. If you don't think these guys know what their doing take a walk down the strip in LV and just look around, $ are flowing everywhere.
 
#40
#40
OrangeBeachVol said:
Exactly. This opening line was no accident like Travis is trying to imply. LV has their formulas, inside info., etc to determine these opening betting lines. If you don't think these guys know what their doing take a walk down the strip in LV and just look around, $ are flowing everywhere.
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Yeah, Vegas has been gambling a long, long time. Sports betting, legally, may be relatively new but they've got a lot of experience with odds, betting trends, etc.

Thinking you can get the better of Vegas regularly is like thinking you could read defenses better than Peyton. You'd better start studying because he made millions doing it.
 
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#41
#41
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
On usce +12.5

“By the way, this is one of these Vegas lines that is so terrifying I understand if you don’t bet it at all. I’d bet 90% of the bets here are going to be on South Carolina. Which means every site is going to need the Vols big. When that happens, Vegas doesn’t lose big very often. I’m just saying.”

Vols by 13 plus. Vegas and Vols win big this weekend 🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊🍊
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**** Clay Travis!
 
#43
#43
2023 football...Vegas wont be playing...tho...their refs might....It is big boy ball from here on out. Candy games are behind us with the exception of 2.....We need our back end to e shutdown ....give rattler a window and he will smoke u...Our kids need to grow up and go have sum fun...
 
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#47
#47
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Wouldn't they just keep moving the line down until the bet money evens out if that were the case? That's how I always understood booking to be profitable, i.e. even out the bets so that the house wins either way.
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Yes, something like that. People think they are betting against the house. But, the house hedges to win either way. One group in this transaction is getting rich while the other in the transaction is going broke. I'll let the readers take a stab at which one is which.
 
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#48
#48
Vegas knows Milton will be out with a knee injury and they are banking on Nico coming in and lighting it up, SC not having an answer for him.
 
#49
#49
If I don’t win emotionally, at least there’s financial gain to ease the pain. Betting the Cocks ML.
 
#50
#50
unfrozencvmanvol said:
I think that is how the professionals do it. Now maybe some amateur book run out of a fraternity house works different but those guys don't tend to stay in business real long anyway.
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Taking the vig would seem to be the most mathematically sound way to maximize profit long-term
 
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