Good looking team

[orangebloodgmc]

Not any more. Forget the tax?

Senior coffee

 

[sjt18]

ESPN FPI predicts every game on Tennessee's new 2020 schedule
Please just read this article. It explains everything I've been saying.
The only thing it was wrong about was switching USCe and Kentucky outcomes (but both fell under a toss-up category), and it predicted we'd beat Arkansas, who was supposed to be horrible. The other 7 games were right though. It predicted 4-6.

Here's what you need the most from the article
"The preseason FPI is determined by four factors: Team performance over the past four seasons with the greatest emphasis on this past season; returning starters at quarterback and on offense and defense overall; Whether a team has a returning head coach; and recruiting rankings over the past four seasons."

So... like I said, they use the previous season to predict the upcoming season. So you really have to wonder if those are truly how they come up with those numbers.... how they ended up giving UT 4 wins last year. There were 7 or 8 returners on both sides of the ball. A 4 year starter at QB. The recruiting rankings would have been significantly better than UK, USCe, Mizzou, and Arkansas. Based on all those factors, UT should have been projected at least 5 wins, right?

Even if you want to say our QB issues are magically fixed, which is a huge question mark,

Magically fixed? This is the most talent UT has had in the QB room at one time in my 30 years of following the team closely. When there were four, you had a whole room of guys with SEC starter caliber physical tools. You had 4 guys with P-5 starting experience. It won't take "magic" to "fix" that position... just good coaching.

we don't have many returning starters overall.

About 8 or more deep on the DL with guys with P-5 starts. ILB's with multiple P-5 starts. I believe UT is two deep with guys who've started in the secondary plus a couple of transfers that are expected to help. Both Mayes bros have starts. Wright has been a starter since he showed up. Carvin has started games and played a ton. Fant started games last year. That room has more depth of talent than it has in quite a while. Two of UT's top 3 WR's are back and I'm pretty comfortable saying that there is more speed and raw talent at that position than UT has had in a while. I'm not saying the top 2 are as good... but the top 5 or 6 look better.

I am comfortable with the RB position. They may shock most of us and just suck out loud... but I expect them to be pretty good. I would love to have Gray back. As much as I appreciate Chandler, Small appeared to be passing him even last year.

As for winnable vs should win, I assume USCe is in the should win category, which is fine. It is always a close game no matter what with them. I think the most likely scenario is 6-6, but I can see 5-7 or 7-5. I've been pretty consistent about that from the get go, I just scoff at the people thinking it should be fairly easy to get to 9-3 or even 10-2. I don't see a chance in that. I'll feel a lot better about the team if they can beat Pitt.

I just as readily "scoff" at 5 wins as 10. I've been absolutely consistent in saying this is a 6 to 8 win roster against this particular schedule.

So that seems to leave the two of us quibbling about the margins at this point.

 

[rocytop2624]

Are you good bud? UT didn't lose to UK by 3. We lost by 24 in our own place. What are you talking about?

Missouri still finished the year better then we did. Missouri lost key players, but then again we lost about 4 times as many so I say that evens out. Missouri isn't some world beater, but I stand by the reasons I gave. That same Arkansas team they beat by 2 had just beat us by 2 touchdowns.

Coaching. QB.

 

[LowKey]

So, a lot of fans just don't get consider the psychological aspect of football.

Oline success is very dependent on how many people they have to block.
In the run game, those lanes will get clogged if there;s too many defenders- Even just one extra...
In the passing game, you can lose containment if two guy are coming at you.

The key is to make the defense play honest. The ONLY way that happens is if the QB creates CONSISTENCY throwing the ball downfield. This makes those safetys have to play deep. it makes the LBs "hesitate" which slows down penetration. This makes your flex 3rd level defenders (CB, NB) have to focus on the WRS and paying more man, which put the "in the box" numbers more favorable to the Oline.

So in regards to psychology: Imagine if the majority of the time you were blocking for a guy, who couldn't move the offense forward. Who couldn't consistently complete the football downfield- so you were most of the time playing outnumbered.
And you had to do this game, after game, after game. Season, after season, after season. They went into each game knowing they had the lesser QB than the opposition.

QB is key.