Experience comparison of Vols vs opponents starting lineups

[trion23]

We will have a puncher's chance to win the East next year. Will depend on O line and Dobbs progressing this offseason.

Agreed.



Go Vols!!!

 

[smokeyeatsgator]

So take this line of thinking a step further then. Does it mean it'll be 2016 or later before we can beat the better teams.

I think in 2016 we'll be the measuring stick, and other teams will be asking "how long until we can beat the Vols again?"

 

[RockyTop1384]

I started putting some weekly analysis together on this part-way through the season for my own education, as Butch has continued to harp on just how young this team is. If you stop to think about it, the facts really do back up his statements. The following indicates the average player's talent (based on 247 composite) and experience (# of years in fbs program, not necessarily by class designation...i.e. Von Pearson is in year 1 although a JR) of UT's weekly starters vs. their opponents:

vs. Ole Miss

UT 1st-Team OFF: .9034 (2.36 years)
OM 1st-Team DEF: .8848 (3.45 years)

UT 1st-Team DEF: .8785 (2.91 years)
OM 1st-Team OFF: .8892 (2.91 years)

vs. Bama

UT 1st-Team OFF: .8842 (2.73 years)
UA 1st-Team DEF: .9683 (2.82 years)

UT 1st-Team DEF: .8785 (2.91 years)
UA 1st-Team OFF: .9210 (3.64 years)

vs. USCe

UT 1st-Team OFF: .9024 (2.27 years)
SC 1st Team DEF: .8527 (3.18 years)

UT 1st-Team DEF: .8785 (2.91 years)
SC 1st-Team OFF: .8859 (3.73 years)

vs. KY

UT 1st-Team OFF: .8906 (2.55 years)
KY 1st-Team DEF: .8262 (2.91 years)

UT 1st-Team DEF: .8919 (2.73 years)
KY 1st-Team OFF: .8578 (3.00 years)

vs. MIZZOU

UT 1st-Team OFF: .8842 (2.45 years)
MZ 1st-Team DEF: .8501 (3.45 years)

UT 1st-Team DEF: .8946 (2.18 years)
MZ 1st-Team OFF: .8662 (4.18 years)

vs. VANDY

UT 1st-Team OFF: .8842 (2.45 years)
VU 1st-Team DEF: .8603 (3.09 years)

UT 1st-Team DEF: .8847 (2.45 years)
VU 1st-Team OFF: .8106 (3.09 years)

Talent-wise, we match-up or best every team above except Bama (which when you look at their roster, the talent they've accumulated is other-worldly). However, we were as young or younger vs. every team above on each side of the ball. In several cases, some teams had more than a whole year more of experience, and the extreme is Mizzou's offense, whose starters have been enrolled on average more than 4 years in an fbs program (several RS SRs).

 

[sjt18]

So what you guys are effectively saying is that this "reason" for losing is gone next year, right? It looks like UT won't have to start ANY Fr next fall to replace the 3 guys who will be gone from the Mizzou starting line up. Presumably one of the back ups will step in for Willams at DT and if one of the Fr is THAT good then all the better. I don't think many believe that UT will have a difficult time replacing Coleman though losing Williams isn't good. I think most of us should agree that the staff has had enough time to adequately replace a walk-on OT playing on a torn ACL by year 3, right?


UT WILL go from one of the least experienced teams to one of the more experienced teams.

 

[sjt18]

So take this line of thinking a step further then. Does it mean it'll be 2016 or later before we can beat the better teams.

Probably. And though it is an absolutely illegitimate notion... you probably won't convince them otherwise.

Even "if you stay, you play" Fulmer acknowledged that it is only a matter of time before young talent overtakes experience.

Next year's team will have good depth by SEC standards. It will have above avg talent by SEC standards. It will have experience. Yet we have folks that refuse to expect the staff to compete with the top tier programs with it.

The low bar many accept is very disappointing.

 

[Crazy Ivan]

Quote:
Originally Posted by trion23 View Post
Fine - so here's the breakdown of UT's starters at Oklahoma (the first of in series I'm comparing):

Tennessee starting lineup (at time of Oklahoma game):

Freshmen - 5
Sophomores - 6 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 5




Georgia starting lineup:

Freshmen - 4 (1 redshirt Freshman)
Sophomores - 5 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 4
Seniors - 9

Seriously, is this really THAT large of a disparity??

Barnett has more SACS and TFL's that 2 or 3 typical Seniors combined. Medley has kicked as well as most Seniors. Hurd has run, caught and blocked as productive as many Seniors. Robertson was the only true Freshman on the OL (or maybe not ?), but had 4-5 upper classmen around him on the Line. TJKr had several INT's early on and has played quite well/ as well as many Seniors (I think?). Evan Berry can return kicks better / is more prolific than Senior D. Young, and fans are crying for him to be use MORE. Helm has avg 6.2 ypc, but maybe hasn't been used as much as initially publicly planned by the Staff. Etc.

I may be totally incorrect, but it seems our Freshmen have been fairly productive overall...

And Special Teams has likely played multiple Freshmen, but we've really had no problems in this area.

Matt Darr, AJJ, Worley, Lane, D. Young and Coleman all have played pretty well, especially Darr and AJJ.

I haven't touched on the Soph's and Jr's, but this is a fairly talented and productive group overall -- it's just not showing up with W's. Some are wondering why not, others are suggesting it's experience and age.

I think our true freshmen have done a great job overall, but most of them also still make a few mistakes each game - they have dropped critical passes in the endzone, or on 3rd downs, missed critical blocks by young WRs, or missed communication on blocking assignments on the OL, missed key gap assignments on D, or missed communications in the secondary, and in most of our losses it has been 4-5 key plays each game that have cost us. If you just look at the OU game it was 3 critical plays that made the difference in the game. That's not to say upperclassmen don't also make mistakes, but a lot of those issues will correct themselves with experience.

 

[RockyTop1384]

So what you guys are effectively saying is that this "reason" for losing is gone next year, right? It looks like UT won't have to start ANY Fr next fall to replace the 3 guys who will be gone from the Mizzou starting line up. Presumably one of the back ups will step in for Willams at DT and if one of the Fr is THAT good then all the better. I don't think many believe that UT will have a difficult time replacing Coleman though losing Williams isn't good. I think most of us should agree that the staff has had enough time to adequately replace a walk-on OT playing on a torn ACL by year 3, right?


UT WILL go from one of the least experienced teams to one of the more experienced teams.

Just about every program loses game(s) each year, so virtually every team will have a reason to lose at times throughout the season. I would phrase it as the reason for improvement will be there, and should be expected.

We will likely have as much or more recruited talent next year than every team except Bama, UGA, & maybe FLA. As the experience gap closes, we should start to look more like a top tier program again. We'll still likely be playing a lot of young talent next year, so I don't think saying that we'll be one of the most experienced teams is fair, but the "we're the youngest team in the history of Tennessee football" won't carry much weight either.

 

[trion23]

So what you guys are effectively saying is that this "reason" for losing is gone next year, right? It looks like UT won't have to start ANY Fr next fall to replace the 3 guys who will be gone from the Mizzou starting line up. Presumably one of the back ups will step in for Willams at DT and if one of the Fr is THAT good then all the better. I don't think many believe that UT will have a difficult time replacing Coleman though losing Williams isn't good. I think most of us should agree that the staff has had enough time to adequately replace a walk-on OT playing on a torn ACL by year 3, right?


UT WILL go from one of the least experienced teams to one of the more experienced teams.

I wouldn't go quite as far as to say we'll be one of the "more experienced teams" next season. We still only started 6 Juniors (both vs Oklahoma and vs Missouri) and started more Freshmen than Sophomores. Those eight teams I looked at all started more Juniors than we did, and all started more Sophomores than Freshmen. But our "experience gap" versus most teams should be much tighter, and should be non-existent by 2016.


Go Vols!!!

 

[sjt18]

Just about every program loses game(s) each year, so virtually every team will have a reason to lose at times throughout the season. I would phrase it as the reason for improvement will be there, and should be expected.

Not talking about having reasons... I'm talking about one specific reason that has been overused IMO.

We will likely have as much or more recruited talent next year than every team except Bama, UGA, & maybe FLA. As the experience gap closes, we should start to look more like a top tier program again. We'll still likely be playing a lot of young talent next year, so I don't think saying that we'll be one of the most experienced teams is fair, but the "we're the youngest team in the history of Tennessee football" won't carry much weight either.

Why isn't it fair? The disadvantage of playing a Fr is that he's a Fr and has no experience or development. The advantage is that the next year you get an experienced Soph with a full year and a half of development. Looking at starts, quarters played, and lettermen returned... UT will have one of the more experienced rosters.

Player development is an inverse exponential curve. Steep progress is seen within the first year or so then it begins to level off. Player development when 12 to 15 starters will be 3/4/5 year players should not be an excuse. Most if not all of others will be sophs... again, not a very good excuse if they cannot play like experienced, well developed players.

 

[sjt18]

I wouldn't go quite as far as to say we'll be one of the "more experienced teams" next season. We still only started 6 Juniors (both vs Oklahoma and vs Missouri) and started more Freshmen than Sophomores. Those eight teams I looked at all started more Juniors than we did, and all started more Sophomores than Freshmen. But our "experience gap" versus most teams should be much tighter, and should be non-existent by 2016.


Go Vols!!!

I am talking specifically to playing experience when I say "experienced". That is a valuable component of experience. While some of these other programs had some of next year's starters as back ups, scout team, or RS's... UT's were playing.

That said, the avg of the teams you cited which doesn't include a young Vandy team is 8 Srs and 7 or so Jrs if I figure right.

Presumably Gilliam will be replaced by Blair. Coleman is likely to be replaced by a Soph. Williams will probably be replaced by the Sr O Williams next fall.

If so... UT will start 7 Srs, 7 Jrs, and 8 Sophs (most of whom were starters this year for all or part of the season). That IS an experienced team. Even when you look at depth, you see 7 more rising Jrs at least and 5 more rising Srs. The rest will be rounded out by Sophs/ RS Fr unless a Fr "earns" it.


So my question is STILL... how long is this "reason" valid for not winning more than 7 games?

 

[RockyTop1384]

Not talking about having reasons... I'm talking about one specific reason that has been overused IMO.


Why isn't it fair? The disadvantage of playing a Fr is that he's a Fr and has no experience or development. The advantage is that the next year you get an experienced Soph with a full year and a half of development. Looking at starts, quarters played, and lettermen returned... UT will have one of the more experienced rosters.

Player development is an inverse exponential curve. Steep progress is seen within the first year or so then it begins to level off. Player development when 12 to 15 starters will be 3/4/5 year players should not be an excuse. Most if not all of others will be sophs... again, not a very good excuse if they cannot play like experienced, well developed players.

Gotcha on first point, you did say this reason specifically, sorry I missed that.

Youth should not play as big of a factor next year as it did this year. At the same time, I wouldn't say the youth reason is overused this year either. Many of our players have simply not been afforded the physical, mental, and emotional development that they would have been afforded if they signed with an established program. And it can't all be fixed by coaching either.....many components of development and maturation only come with time.

But, I think we are saying the same thing as far as progress & we will be a more experienced time next year overall. In fact, I've seen the overwhelming majority of people in this forum expecting a very reasonable 7-8 regular season wins next year, maybe 9 depending on circumstances and postseason scenarios. Rationale fans get it, and it's fair to say a 5-6 win 2015 season would simply be a failure.

 

[DaddyChad]

So then the focus has to turn to coaching.. A great coach is worth something so u have to ask yourself..is this staff better than mizz or any other staff we have played..

If they are by how much?? If the only way this staff is going to win is better talent get ready for a ton of 7 n 8 wins seasons..

Great staffs steal at least 2 games a yr based on prep n attacking a teams weakness.. Does this staff do that??!

BTW I predicted 6 wins min and that is avg coaching IMO..

Some of your points are good but you need base talent at some positions to be able to compete and steal those wins. Show me an SEC team with a terrible Oline and I'll show you a loser week in and out. What's missing in all the whining and complaining is this team IS GETTING BETTER. It shows in the recruiting, it shows on the field, and it's showing in an improvement in record. The improvement isn't quick enough for some but we're getting better. Keep in mind Jones is posting a better record and getting this team to a bowl game with one of the youngest teams in the country against one of the hardest schedules in the country.

I'm not saying we should settle for mediocrity forever nor should 6-6 get CBJ by BUT for right now the team, the program, and the roster is improving. Next year will be a very good and fair evaluation of the progress this staff has made; I think 8 wins is a fair bench mark next year.

 

[Ericvol2096]

Trion in this thread!

 

[Ericvol2096]

So what you guys are effectively saying is that this "reason" for losing is gone next year, right? It looks like UT won't have to start ANY Fr next fall to replace the 3 guys who will be gone from the Mizzou starting line up. Presumably one of the back ups will step in for Willams at DT and if one of the Fr is THAT good then all the better. I don't think many believe that UT will have a difficult time replacing Coleman though losing Williams isn't good. I think most of us should agree that the staff has had enough time to adequately replace a walk-on OT playing on a torn ACL by year 3, right?


UT WILL go from one of the least experienced teams to one of the more experienced teams.

SJT I ran the numbers yesterday and by my figures UT will still only have 53% of their starting lineup being JR's or Sr's next year.

Still going to be a young team next year, just going to be a young team with experience, where this year was a young team with little experience.

2016 is when our roster will be 75 or 80% JR's and Sr's and when those guys get hurt we will replace them with talented Sophmores....or in other words a championship level roster.

 

[pierce60]

To further make the OP's point here is a comparison of margin of victory/defeat vs. last year

Oregon (-45)..............Oklahoma (-24)
Florida (-14)...............Florida (-1)
Georgia (-3)................Georgia (-3)
South Carolina (+2)......South Carolina (+3)
Alabama (-35)..............Alabama (-14)
Auburn (-32)................Ole Miss (-31)
Kentucky (+13)............Kentucky (+34)
Missouri (-28)..............Missouri (-8)
Vanderbilt (-4)............. TBD
Total: 2013= -138 vs. 2014= -44

All of this is to say that TN is significantly more competitive against similar competition than last year while also being MUCH, MUCH less experienced than their opponents. Progress is being made whether anyone wants to admit it or not...

 

[sjt18]

Gotcha on first point, you did say this reason specifically, sorry I missed that.

Youth should not play as big of a factor next year as it did this year. At the same time, I wouldn't say the youth reason is overused this year either. Many of our players have simply not been afforded the physical, mental, and emotional development that they would have been afforded if they signed with an established program. And it can't all be fixed by coaching either.....many components of development and maturation only come with time.

But, I think we are saying the same thing as far as progress & we will be a more experienced time next year overall. In fact, I've seen the overwhelming majority of people in this forum expecting a very reasonable 7-8 regular season wins next year, maybe 9 depending on circumstances and postseason scenarios. Rationale fans get it, and it's fair to say a 5-6 win 2015 season would simply be a failure.

I am saying and fully believe that 7 would be subpar. Eight or more wins with the experience and talent assembled should be a reasonable expectation.

 

[sjt18]

SJT I ran the numbers yesterday and by my figures UT will still only have 53% of their starting lineup being JR's or Sr's next year.

Still going to be a young team next year, just going to be a young team with experience, where this year was a young team with little experience.

2016 is when our roster will be 75 or 80% JR's and Sr's and when those guys get hurt we will replace them with talented Sophmores....or in other words a championship level roster.

I haven't really pushed championship as a reasonable expectation next year or even a win of the East. Eight wins won't win the East for UT... nine probably wouldn't.

I think 8+ wins and in the "conversation" for the East is very reasonable though.

Where did your numbers come from btw? UT returns 6 Jr and 6 Soph starters. There's a good chance after a year of concentrated development that Blair starts. O Williams probably steps in for Jordan. That would make 14 of the 22 starters upper classmen. That's 64% with the remainder very likely to be Sophs with experience.

 

[Other_Guy]

Why does that turn to coaching? They are freshman. Great coaches don't "steal 2 games" with 7 TRUE freshman starting. These guys were used to destroying competition in HS and being the best player on their teams and now they are being asked to play with guys who have 3+ years of experience on them. Great coaching cannot overcome that, although it can accelerate the process - hence the reason most of our freshman are playing OUTSTANDING. Just look at Dobbs and ghe difference a year has made in him.I would say a very large portion have given up on Dobbs last year and weren't too thrilled to see him this year...but then he comes out and he is bigger, stronger, much smarter, and MUCH more effective. He is being DEVELOPED. That is REAL coaching.

THANK YOU! The development of these young guys. are excellent, and that's what makes me excited about the future.

 

[Other_Guy]

To further make the OP's point here is a comparison of margin of victory/defeat vs. last year

Oregon (-45)..............Oklahoma (-24)
Florida (-14)...............Florida (-1)
Georgia (-3)................Georgia (-3)
South Carolina (+2)......South Carolina (+3)
Alabama (-35)..............Alabama (-14)
Auburn (-32)................Ole Miss (-31)
Kentucky (+13)............Kentucky (+34)
Missouri (-28)..............Missouri (-8)
Vanderbilt (-4)............. TBD
Total: 2013= -138 vs. 2014= -44

All of this is to say that TN is significantly more competitive against similar competition than last year while also being MUCH, MUCH less experienced than their opponents. Progress is being made whether anyone wants to admit it or not...

Because they didnt upset a top 25 team with less experience that last year, this team has not progressed, apparently.

 

[GVol1966]

So then the focus has to turn to coaching.. A great coach is worth something so u have to ask yourself..is this staff better than mizz or any other staff we have played..

If they are by how much?? If the only way this staff is going to win is better talent get ready for a ton of 7 n 8 wins seasons..

Great staffs steal at least 2 games a yr based on prep n attacking a teams weakness.. Does this staff do that??!

BTW I predicted 6 wins min and that is avg coaching IMO..

BS!!!!!!! Coaches don't play the game!!! They have to be up to the task but based on your post Alabama would be undefeated Every year!!

 

[trion23]

I am talking specifically to playing experience when I say "experienced". That is a valuable component of experience. While some of these other programs had some of next year's starters as back ups, scout team, or RS's... UT's were playing.

That said, the avg of the teams you cited which doesn't include a young Vandy team is 8 Srs and 7 or so Jrs if I figure right.

Presumably Gilliam will be replaced by Blair. Coleman is likely to be replaced by a Soph. Williams will probably be replaced by the Sr O Williams next fall.

If so... UT will start 7 Srs, 7 Jrs, and 8 Sophs (most of whom were starters this year for all or part of the season). That IS an experienced team. Even when you look at depth, you see 7 more rising Jrs at least and 5 more rising Srs. The rest will be rounded out by Sophs/ RS Fr unless a Fr "earns" it.


So my question is STILL... how long is this "reason" valid for not winning more than 7 games?

I agree that - compared to this year - our team next year will be FAR more experienced. We've played the most True Freshmen this season of any FBS team. (We'd played 23 - 5 more than any other team - going into the Mizzou game.) That should start paying dividends next season, and the Vols, while still pretty young, will also be much more experienced overall.

 

[LWSVOL]

So then the focus has to turn to coaching.. A great coach is worth something so u have to ask yourself..is this staff better than mizz or any other staff we have played..

If they are by how much?? If the only way this staff is going to win is better talent get ready for a ton of 7 n 8 wins seasons..

Great staffs steal at least 2 games a yr based on prep n attacking a teams weakness.. Does this staff do that??!

BTW I predicted 6 wins min and that is avg coaching IMO..

we don't have a great coach. Jones can be a very good coach but he is not great. Fans need to get over thinking that. Great coaches are rare. there are very, very few of them. Only one in this conference and unfortunately he is in Tuscaloosa.

Spurrier was great when younger but age caught up with him.

 

[LWSVOL]

So take this line of thinking a step further then. Does it mean it'll be 2016 or later before we can beat the better teams.

I think we will beat some of them then but we will not beat all of them..

 

[LWSVOL]

Consider it like this (those of you who are old enough) - Ask yourself, "How many of these True Freshman would have started on one of those great UT teams of the 90s (or early 00s)?" Two? Three, maybe? We've started ELEVEN different True Freshmen this season!

Going into the Missouri game, only Tulane (with 12) had started more True Freshmen than the Vols - in ALL of FBS College Football!

None of the true freshman that have started this year would have started in the 90s and not likely in the early 2000's. they may have played some but not started.

 

[trion23]

None of the true freshman that have started this year would have started in the 90s and not likely in the early 2000's. they may have played some but not started.

Barnett could have started in the 90s, but I doubt any of our other True Freshmen would've started, unless injuries gave them a shot.

Go Vols (and Happy Thanksgiving)!!!