Experience comparison of Vols vs opponents starting lineups

[RiotVol]

Yesterday, I did a comparison of the Vols starting line-up versus Missouri, and could see a stark contrast in experience levels. Missouri is a MUCH older, more seasoned team.

So, I took a look at all the starting line-ups of the major teams we've faced this year (the 7 SEC teams plus Oklahoma). Our team is MUCH younger and less experienced than any of these opponents, and it isn't really even close!

I bet even more enlightening is to look at the sum total of the "letters earned" of each roster. That not only gets at the starting lineup, but also the depth behind the starters. I'm willing to be that Alabama's is super high, because they have a junior/senior starters, and their backups are earning experience (i.e. letters) on special teams and in blowout wins.

Then run a x-y plot of the median age of each team against the letters earned. They should correlate, but the residuals would be interesting to look at.

 

[sechamp2012]

We will have 3 Freshmen starting next year and maybe a RS Freshman.

 

[volKano]

pathetic? I agree, you are so right :thud:, if a coaching staff can't be >9 wins in their 2nd year, regardless of players.........keep firing them, bring in Gruden, or better yet, lets pay Saban $12 million and get him to fix it with just coaching, Saban doesn't need 5* recuits, hell, he can only use Tennessee players and win multiple NCs and SEC Championships. Heck, we only need players from Nashville and Memphis and we'll kick everyone's ass.........yea, and maybe we don't need special teams, we just go for 2 points because we'll make it everytime, UT will set the new standard in College Football, no-hundles, no designed plays, just get open and the QB with throw it to you, we don't need running backs, just big OL to give the QB 2 minutes to find and open reciever........that about how it sounds when I read this crap.

:clapping::clapping::clapping::clapping::clapping::clapping:

You complain a lot to be a fly fisherman. Maybe you should take a break from the site and tie some little flies to put in your pretty little hat. Let the men talk football and about our boats.

 

[trion23]

Vegas insiders need to read this thread then. For some reason, they chose to ignore youth in making us the favorite against mizzou

As someone else pointed out a day or two ago, Vegas doesn't actually CARE who's likely to win the game, nor do they really set the line how they think the outcome of the game will play out.

They set the line with the objective of getting even money on each side of the action. The Vols were "hot" in public perception after coming back vs USCe and blowing out Kentucky.

Unfortunately, many of us (myself included) took our being favored against Missouri to mean we "should" win that game, even thought we (I) didn't really feel like that previously.

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

Fine - so here's the breakdown of UT's starters at Oklahoma (the first game in the series I'm comparing):

Tennessee starting lineup (at time of Oklahoma game):

Freshmen - 5
Sophomores - 6 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 5

That's still more Freshmen (all true FR btw) AND fewer Seniors than ANY of those eight major teams I compared.

We're young, I won't argue that, but who "starts" is a misused stat. As Calipari once said it means nothing if I throw you out there for the tip but pull you out within 2 min and the next guy gets the bulk of the min/shots/snaps etc. If Lane starts on play 1 but Hurd gets the most carries then who cares if we "started" a SR? I dont know the snaps breakdown and I'm not that concerned to look because I recognize we're more inexperienced than many teams but just beware of using who starts as the basis for how young we are.

 

[trion23]

I bet even more enlightening is to look at the sum total of the "letters earned" of each roster. That not only gets at the starting lineup, but also the depth behind the starters. I'm willing to be that Alabama's is super high, because they have a junior/senior starters, and their backups are earning experience (i.e. letters) on special teams and in blowout wins.

Then run a x-y plot of the median age of each team against the letters earned. They should correlate, but the residuals would be interesting to look at.

Good post, and I agree. Just from knowing how inexperienced most of our upperclassmen were, I'm certain that the letters - or better yet games played and games started - for other teams we've played would be MUCH HIGHER than ours! (Remember - we were the only team in the nation who replaced EVERY starter on both our offensive AND defensive lines!)

Go Vols!

 

[FlyFishnVol]

You complain a lot to be a fly fisherman. Maybe you should take a break from the site and tie some little flies to put in your pretty little hat. Let the men talk football and about our boats.

I refer back to my original statement, when ever people like you post stupid comments, it only highlights your ignorance and lack of brain power to come up with any insight that would be considered note worthy. I am not sure you can discuss football, your past post have not indicated or support your statement.

I can use smaller words next time, if that is easier for you...........:salute:

 

[volfanhill]

So then the focus has to turn to coaching.. A great coach is worth something so u have to ask yourself..is this staff better than mizz or any other staff we have played..

If they are by how much?? If the only way this staff is going to win is better talent get ready for a ton of 7 n 8 wins seasons..

Great staffs steal at least 2 games a yr based on prep n attacking a teams weakness.. Does this staff do that??!

BTW I predicted 6 wins min and that is avg coaching IMO..

Where is the proof great coaches steal two games a year? How many teams have had more talent then Alabama over the last few years? 0. So Saban isn't a great coach based on your mythical metric? I think great coaches tend to make fewer bad decisions that lead to losing a game. Example A Mike Smith of the Falcons has cost the falcons two games this year because of bad clock management.

 

[trion23]

We're young, I won't argue that, but who "starts" is a misused stat. As Calipari once said it means nothing if I throw you out there for the tip but pull you out within 2 min and the next guy gets the bulk of the min/shots/snaps etc. If Lane starts on play 1 but Hurd gets the most carries then who cares if we "started" a SR? I dont know the snaps breakdown and I'm not that concerned to look because I recognize we're more inexperienced than many teams but just beware of using who starts as the basis for how young we are.

You're not wrong about "starts" often being misleading, but the fact that we were the only team in the nation to replace EVERY starter on both our offensive and defensive lines suggests if we looked deeper into our depth chart versus these opponents, the experience gap would likely widen, NOT shrink.

For example, we've only had ONE Senior play meaningful snaps on our entire offensive line, and ONE Senior play meaningful snaps on our defensive line this season. (And, that single Senior offensive lineman - Gilliam - was a walk-on until this season, missed nearly half the season with a torn ACL, and is now playing on that torn ACL!)

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

One thing that really stands out to me:

We started as many true Freshmen against Missouri as Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri ALL started against us COMBINED!!!

Your stats say they started 13 FR of which 10 were true FR.

 

[trion23]

Your stats say they started 13 FR of which 10 were true FR.

No, that's only if you combine ALL eight teams. I said, "We started as many true Freshmen against Missouri as Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri ALL started against us COMBINED!!!" Seven teams combined, not eight (Georgia's not in there.)

Here's a quick breakdown of the Freshmen starters on those seven teams: Oklahoma-2 (2T) + Florida-2 (2T) + Ole Miss-0 + Alabama-1 (1T) + South Carolina-2 (1T) + Kentucky-2 (1T) + Missouri-0 = 9 Freshmen starters, 7 of whom were True Freshmen on those seven team's combined starting lineups, compared to our 7 Freshmen starters versus Missouri, all of whom were True Freshmen.

 

[Brentwoodvolfan]

We can all agree one of the turning points of Missouri game was Josh Malone int that hit him in his hands. Coaches are putting us in position to win and our young guys are making mistakes at wrong time. Did CA get bad just for this game??? Or was youth a factor??? That's not an excuse it is what it is!!!! We're getting better just give it time!! GBO

 

[trion23]

No, that's only if you combine ALL eight teams. I said, "We started as many true Freshmen against Missouri as Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri ALL started against us COMBINED!!!" Seven teams combined, not eight (Georgia's not in there.)

Here's a quick breakdown of the Freshmen starters on those seven teams: Oklahoma-2 (2T) + Florida-2 (2T) + Ole Miss-0 + Alabama-1 (1T) + South Carolina-2 (1T) + Kentucky-2 (1T) + Missouri-0 = 9 Freshmen starters, 7 of whom were True Freshmen on those seven team's combined starting lineups, compared to our 7 Freshmen starters versus Missouri, all of whom were True Freshmen.

Or I could've said, "the six teams that beat us started a COMBINED eight true Freshmen against us, while we started seven true Freshmen versus Missouri alone." Also true.

 

[trion23]

We can all agree one of the turning points of Missouri game was Josh Malone int that hit him in his hands. Coaches are putting us in position to win and our young guys are making mistakes at wrong time. Did CA get bad just for this game??? Or was youth a factor??? That's not an excuse it is what it is!!!! We're getting better just give it time!! GBO

Agreed. Talented, young players can make great plays, but they are generally more prone to mistakes than seasoned veterans.

Go Vols!!!

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

No, that's only if you combine ALL eight teams. I said, "We started as many true Freshmen against Missouri as Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri ALL started against us COMBINED!!!" Seven teams combined, not eight (Georgia's not in there.)

Here's a quick breakdown of the Freshmen starters on those seven teams: Oklahoma-2 (2T) + Florida-2 (2T) + Ole Miss-0 + Alabama-1 (1T) + South Carolina-2 (1T) + Kentucky-2 (1T) + Missouri-0 = 9 Freshmen starters, 7 of whom were True Freshmen on those seven team's combined starting lineups, compared to our 7 Freshmen starters versus Missouri, all of whom were True Freshmen.

My bad I didn't count. I assumed that was all major opponents listed, I didn't notice UGA missing.

 

[Boca Vol]

All I'm saying is you would think the majority of posts about how our youth and O-line were no match for mizzou would have come BEFORE the game was played. Instead it was dobbs 2015 heisman campaign and our 2015 SEC championship win. I'm all in on Butch for at least 3 more years at a minimum, but let's call a spade a spade

You speak a lot of truth. After the USC and UK games the perception was our O-line had made significant improvement. Any comment to the contrary got the feathers ruffled on here.

Now, we're back to the youthful OL. The OL didn't get better for the USC and UK games. The competition went down....that and Dobbs' ability to scramble turned sacks into gains.

UT will be fine down the road. They're at least entertaining to watch again. They play hard and are getting play makers.

 

[EZE]

When you stop and think about it, it is mind boggling that we are starting 7 TRUE freshmen. That is almost 1/3 of our starting lineup.

 

[trion23]

When you stop and think about it, it is mind boggling that we are starting 7 TRUE freshmen. That is almost 1/3 of our starting lineup.

And at the same time, we only started 3 Seniors! I took a closer look at the participation report for the Missouri game, and we actually only played 6 Seniors AT ALL.

 

[UT-Rex]

Quote:
Originally Posted by trion23 View Post
Fine - so here's the breakdown of UT's starters at Oklahoma (the first of in series I'm comparing):

Tennessee starting lineup (at time of Oklahoma game):

Freshmen - 5
Sophomores - 6 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 5

You have to consider that there are underclassmen that are more talented, or have more potential as starters than the upperclassmen who started.. The problem is, a coach can't just throw all those said freshman in based off more potential in an environment like that, fresh out of high school.

So we may have had a decent amount of upperclassmen starting, but only because the alternative isn't really an option. You can't just start a bunch of freshman and throw them in the fire like that.. regardless of how promising they are.

Georgia starting lineup:

Freshmen - 4 (1 redshirt Freshman)
Sophomores - 5 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 4
Seniors - 9

Seriously, is this really THAT large of a disparity??

Barnett has more SACS and TFL's that 2 or 3 typical Seniors combined. Medley has kicked as well as most Seniors. Hurd has run, caught and blocked as productive as many Seniors. Robertson was the only true Freshman on the OL (or maybe not ?), but had 4-5 upper classmen around him on the Line. TJKr had several INT's early on and has played quite well/ as well as many Seniors (I think?). Evan Berry can return kicks better / is more prolific than Senior D. Young, and fans are crying for him to be use MORE. Helm has avg 6.2 ypc, but maybe hasn't been used as much as initially publicly planned by the Staff. Etc.

I may be totally incorrect, but it seems our Freshmen have been fairly productive overall...

And Special Teams has likely played multiple Freshmen, but we've really had no problems in this area.

Matt Darr, AJJ, Worley, Lane, D. Young and Coleman all have played pretty well, especially Darr and AJJ.

I haven't touched on the Soph's and Jr's, but this is a fairly talented and productive group overall -- it's just not showing up with W's. Some are wondering why not, others are suggesting it's experience and age.

 

[DD4ME]

So take this line of thinking a step further then. Does it mean it'll be 2016 or later before we can beat the better teams.

 

[JohnMcA60]

Here is the breakdown of Tennessee's starters (as of the Missouri game) versus the seven SEC opponents we've played, plus Oklahoma.

Tennessee starting lineup (at time of Missouri game):

Freshmen - 7 (0 redshirt Freshmen)
Sophomores - 6 (2 redshirt Sophomores)
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 3

Missouri starting lineup:

Freshmen - 0
Sophomores - 6 (6 redshirt Sophomores)
Juniors - 8
Seniors - 8

Oklahoma starting lineup:

Freshmen - 2 (0 redshirt Freshmen)
Sophomores - 7 (3 redshirt Sophomores)
Juniors - 5
Seniors - 8

Georgia starting lineup:

Freshmen - 4 (1 redshirt Freshman)
Sophomores - 5 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 4
Seniors - 9

Florida starting lineup:

Freshmen - 2 (0 redshirt Freshmen)
Sophomores - 4 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 10
Seniors - 6

Ole Miss starting lineup:

Freshmen - 0
Sophomores - 6 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 9
Seniors - 7

Alabama starting lineup:

Freshmen - 1 (0 redshirt Freshmen)
Sophomores - 4 (0 redshirt Sophomores)
Juniors - 7
Seniors - 10

South Carolina starting lineup:

Freshmen - 2 (1 redshirt Freshman)
Sophomores - 6 (4 redshirt Sophomores)
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 8

Kentucky starting lineup:

Freshmen - 2 (1 redshirt Freshman)
Sophomores - 4 (0 redshirt Sophomores)
Juniors - 9
Seniors - 7


Go Vols!!!

Great insight and this really shows how young yet talented we are. Stay the course vol fans because greater times await. Go Vols

 

[kiddiedoc]

So take this line of thinking a step further then. Does it mean it'll be 2016 or later before we can beat the better teams.

There are certainly some of us that hold that view.

 

[trion23]

Quote:
Originally Posted by trion23 View Post
Fine - so here's the breakdown of UT's starters at Oklahoma (the first of in series I'm comparing):

Tennessee starting lineup (at time of Oklahoma game):

Freshmen - 5
Sophomores - 6 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 6
Seniors - 5




Georgia starting lineup:

Freshmen - 4 (1 redshirt Freshman)
Sophomores - 5 (1 redshirt Sophomore)
Juniors - 4
Seniors - 9

Seriously, is this really THAT large of a disparity??

Barnett has more SACS and TFL's that 2 or 3 typical Seniors combined. Medley has kicked as well as most Seniors. Hurd has run, caught and blocked as productive as many Seniors. Robertson was the only true Freshman on the OL (or maybe not ?), but had 4-5 upper classmen around him on the Line. TJKr had several INT's early on and has played quite well/ as well as many Seniors (I think?). Evan Berry can return kicks better / is more prolific than Senior D. Young, and fans are crying for him to be use MORE. Helm has avg 6.2 ypc, but maybe hasn't been used as much as initially publicly planned by the Staff. Etc.

I may be totally incorrect, but it seems our Freshmen have been fairly productive overall...

And Special Teams has likely played multiple Freshmen, but we've really had no problems in this area.

Matt Darr, AJJ, Worley, Lane, D. Young and Coleman all have played pretty well, especially Darr and AJJ.

I haven't touched on the Soph's and Jr's, but this is a fairly talented and productive group overall -- it's just not showing up with W's. Some are wondering why not, others are suggesting it's experience and age.

Consider it like this (those of you who are old enough) - Ask yourself, "How many of these True Freshman would have started on one of those great UT teams of the 90s (or early 00s)?" Two? Three, maybe? We've started ELEVEN different True Freshmen this season!

Going into the Missouri game, only Tulane (with 12) had started more True Freshmen than the Vols - in ALL of FBS College Football!

 

[trion23]

So take this line of thinking a step further then. Does it mean it'll be 2016 or later before we can beat the better teams.

I'd say it'll likely be 2016 or later before we should realistically expect to compete for championships. On the other hand, I do expect to see improvement in our W-L record next season.

Go Vols!!! :clapping:

 

[EZE]

I'd say it'll likely be 2016 or later before we should realistically expect to compete for championships. On the other hand, I do expect to see improvement in our W-L record next season.

Go Vols!!! :clapping:

We will have a puncher's chance to win the East next year. Will depend on O line and Dobbs progressing this offseason.