Draftnics: Success rate for 1st round QBs

#51
#51
Elite (13)

McNabb
Vick
Eli Manning
Rivers
Big Ben R
Rodgers
Ryan
Stafford
Luck
Mahomes
Watson
L. Jackson
Murray (proj)

Good (9)
C. Palmer, Alex Smith, Newton, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Wentz, Allen (Buf), D. Jones (proj)

Mediocre (7)
Bradford, Bortles, Winston, Mariotta, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold,
Click to expand...

It's probably not fair to Monday Morning QB this thing two yrs after this came out but let's do it anyway.

I'd remove these guys from elite:

Vick
Eli Manning
Watson
Murray

I'd add Allen to elite

As for good I'd remove guys that can't keep a starting job

Wentz
Jones

I'll be generous and leave Alex Smith and Tannehill in there

Mayfield is a mediocre QB but clearly a bust as a top ten pick, let alone a #1 overall guy. Mariotta, Trubisky and Darnold should be busts

So I'm looking at ten elite guys, still not bad...but it does go to show that you only get an elite every other year

Having said that, we have gotten quite a few elite guys in the past few yrs, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence and maybe CJ Stroud. The first 3 were in one draft
 
#52
#52
Sea Ray said:
It's probably not fair to Monday Morning QB this thing two yrs after this came out but let's do it anyway.

I'd remove these guys from elite:

Vick
Eli Manning
Watson
Murray

I'd add Allen to elite

As for good I'd remove guys that can't keep a starting job

Wentz
Jones

I'll be generous and leave Alex Smith and Tannehill in there

Mayfield is a mediocre QB but clearly a bust as a top ten pick, let alone a #1 overall guy. Mariotta, Trubisky and Darnold should be busts

So I'm looking at ten elite guys, still not bad...but it does go to show that you only get an elite every other year

Having said that, we have gotten quite a few elite guys in the past few yrs, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence and maybe CJ Stroud. The first 3 were in one draft
Click to expand...

You got Allen over Burrow?
 
#55
#55
95 Vol Alum said:
I’m tempted. Need to dig.
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Allen has a higher ceiling, but his career started slow, got really hot, then the last year and a half without Daboll has been disappointing.

Burrow just seems more consistent. Rookie year was whatever but 2nd year was SB appearance, 3rd year was AFCCG appearance, both very close losses. He started this season with the calf injury but now they're looking like a top 3 team again.
 
#56
#56
n_huffhines said:
Allen has a higher ceiling, but his career started slow, got really hot, then the last year and a half without Daboll has been disappointing.

Burrow just seems more consistent. Rookie year was whatever but 2nd year was SB appearance, 3rd year was AFCCG appearance, both very close losses. He started this season with the calf injury but now they're looking like a top 3 team again.
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I don’t believe that Allen lags Burrow’s passing ability as much as Burrow lags Allen’s rushing. Especially considering the difference in skill positions (Cincy has the better weapons).
 
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#57
#57
95 Vol Alum said:
I don’t believe that Allen lags Burrow’s passing ability as much as Burrow lags Allen’s rushing. Especially considering the difference in skill positions (Cincy has the better weapons).
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Allen is more talented at both, Burrow's just the man and makes the plays when he has to. Allen makes too many bad decisions.

JB's weapons are better right now, but he went to the SB with a rookie and sophomore WR duo. They are super talented but that's still crazy.
 
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#59
#59
Bennessee01 said:
Taken from 1999-2019
Total QBs taken in round 1 (61)

Elite (13)
McNabb
Vick
Eli Manning
Rivers
Big Ben R
Rodgers
Ryan
Stafford
Luck
Mahomes
Watson
L. Jackson
Murray (proj)

Good (9)
C. Palmer, Alex Smith, Newton, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Goff, Wentz, Allen (Buf), D. Jones (proj)

Mediocre (7)
Bradford, Bortles, Winston, Mariotta, Trubisky, Mayfield, Darnold,

Busts (31)
Worsts of the Busts
Demarcus Russell 1st overall 2007
Akili Smith (Ore) 3rd overall 1999
Joey Harrington (Ore) 3rd overall 2002
Tebow why because he's Tebow.

So I've always heard about 50% make it. With 31 busts out of 61 I'd say that's pretty darn accurate.
Enjoy!
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Eli Manning was not elite. He was good at best. In most seasons of his pro career, he wasn’t even that good. He was never injured and he had a few stellar defenses in his career that carried his sorry ass to 2 Super Bowl victories. Without those 2 Super Bowl rings, he would most likely be included in the Mediocre category.
 
#60
#60
Sea Ray said:
It's probably not fair to Monday Morning QB this thing two yrs after this came out but let's do it anyway.

I'd remove these guys from elite:

Vick
Eli Manning
Watson
Murray

I'd add Allen to elite

As for good I'd remove guys that can't keep a starting job

Wentz
Jones

I'll be generous and leave Alex Smith and Tannehill in there

Mayfield is a mediocre QB but clearly a bust as a top ten pick, let alone a #1 overall guy. Mariotta, Trubisky and Darnold should be busts

So I'm looking at ten elite guys, still not bad...but it does go to show that you only get an elite every other year

Having said that, we have gotten quite a few elite guys in the past few yrs, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence and maybe CJ Stroud. The first 3 were in one draft
Click to expand...
Trevor Lawrence is not elite.
 
#61
#61
Lawrence sure didn’t look elite yesterday. Allen is not looking elite tonight or since Daboll left him two years ago
 
#64
#64
95 Vol Alum said:
Cousins is so unappreciated.
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Those are good QB's on that tier. I was surprised when Skins let him walk, even tho i agreed price would be too steep. I was in on him early. He can fill up the stat sheet, he can go out there and win you games, but ultimately, I just don't trust him like I do the great QB's. I've seen him ruin way too many survivor runs and parlays. One of my survivor rules is stay away from Cousins games (either picking for or against).
 
#65
#65
Russillo did his annual 1st rd QB success update. He said by his count, 19 of 68 1st rd picks "solved the team's QB problem." That's a 28% success rate.

His expressed opinion is that you just keep taking 1st rounders until you hit on one, but also that you should be very hesitant to trade up for one.

I'm worried Broncos are going to trade up for McCarthy or take Nix at #12. Just trade back to take Nix or Penix.
 
#66
#66
n_huffhines said:
I always wondered, and some insiders now confirming that the Bears didn't need to move up to get Trubisky. They bid against themselves

"I don't know where they were getting their information [on needing to move up], but it was not great sources," said a source close to the team. "To give up four picks to move up one spot, that was another ridiculous thing. Especially on a team that didn't have great talent anyways. They [the 49ers] kind of duped [Chicago]."

Pace had taken over as GM in 2015 and had looked into trading up for Marcus Mariota in the '15 draft and Carson Wentz in '16. A source close to the team says that not making moves for those quarterbacks motivated Pace in '17. He would do whatever it took to get Trubisky. So when the Bears' front office caught wind that there was one team threatening to move up and select Trubisky, Pace made certain Trubisky would be a Bear.

Across the league, scouts, GMs and coaches were stunned by the Bears' move. "Everyone was like, 'Holy ****! They just took Mitch Trubisky No. 2?'" said a scout whose team drafted a quarterback that year. "There was no way we thought they were going to get Trubisky. That was so far removed from what we thought could be reality."

The shock was partly because Pace had kept his intentions quiet, but mostly it was because, for many teams, Trubisky was ranked as the third quarterback and a late first-round pick.

"I'm not sure anyone had Trubisky as high as the Bears did," said a scout who closely evaluated quarterbacks that year.

"The division is glad Chicago picked him," said an evaluator who worked in the NFC North at the time. His team graded Trubisky as a third-round pick.
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Pretty much established, Jimmy. One of several reasons why Pace is a FORMER GM.
 
#67
#67
n_huffhines said:
There have been 32 1st rd QB's in the last 10 years. You count 7+ elite QB's in the league? I say there are only 2 right now. All above-average QB tiers:

Mahomes

Burrow

Elite _____-^ _____Elite

Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Stafford

Herbert, Lawrence

Goff, Purdy, Tua, Cousins, Dak, Stroud

Minshew, Dobbs, Geno
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Updated:
Mahomes

Burrow, Allen, Stafford, Stroud

Herbert, Lamar, Hurts, Rodgers

Goff, Purdy, Cousins, Dak, Love

Tua, Minshew, Geno, Lawrence, Kyler, Baker
 
#68
#68
Sea Ray said:
It's probably not fair to Monday Morning QB this thing two yrs after this came out but let's do it anyway.

I'd remove these guys from elite:

Vick
Eli Manning
Watson
Murray

I'd add Allen to elite

As for good I'd remove guys that can't keep a starting job

Wentz
Jones

I'll be generous and leave Alex Smith and Tannehill in there

Mayfield is a mediocre QB but clearly a bust as a top ten pick, let alone a #1 overall guy. Mariotta, Trubisky and Darnold should be busts

So I'm looking at ten elite guys, still not bad...but it does go to show that you only get an elite every other year

Having said that, we have gotten quite a few elite guys in the past few yrs, Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, Lawrence and maybe CJ Stroud. The first 3 were in one draft
Click to expand...
Too hasty on Murray and Eli beat Brady twice on the ultimate stage. He'll make the HOF and is cemented as ELIte.
 
#70
#70
n_huffhines said:
Getting called "Jimmy" for something I posted 4 years ago has got to be some kind of record.
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Nah...nowhere close. But apologies and a shoulder to lean on as you recover from the brutal disparagement.
 
#73
#73
butchna said:
Too hasty on Murray and Eli beat Brady twice on the ultimate stage. He'll make the HOF and is cemented as ELIte.
Click to expand...
You're right that those 2 games will likely get Eli into the Hall. I disagree with that but I'm not the one who decides
 
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#74
#74
How is Andrew Luck "elite," and not Cam Newton? Before his injury, Newton was one of the best players in the league. He single-handedly carried a poor offense to a 15-1 regular season, and a Super Bowl appearance. What did Luck accomplish??
 
#75
#75
Panthro said:
How is Andrew Luck "elite," and not Cam Newton? Before his injury, Newton was one of the best players in the league. He single-handedly carried a poor offense to a 15-1 regular season, and a Super Bowl appearance. What did Luck accomplish??
Click to expand...

Cam had the better career simply because he played in a SB, won an MVP, and made more $.

They were both cut short by injuries and Cam's resume is pretty damn good before the injuries piled up, but I also think the Broncos solved him in a way that teams can't solve Luck (take away running lanes and drag routes). Luck had 39 passing TD's in his final season. He did that in pain throwing to TY Hlton, Eric Ebron, and Chester Rogers.

I'd take Luck for sure, and I was a big Cam guy.
 
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