Draftnics: Success rate for 1st round QBs

#26
#26
Knox-a-rue said:
This is fair, imo. Is Trubisky really mediocre? Maybe so. I think its too early to say on Darnold. (I thought he would be the best in that draft class.) I might not call some of those guys elite. But there could be a "very good" class in between good and elite.

Interesting. Thanks for posting.
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Let’s put it this way: Eli Manning has 2 Super Bowl rings because of great defenses. He was IN NO WAY elite as a QB.
 
#27
#27
Vol423 said:
Let’s put it this way: Eli Manning has 2 Super Bowl rings because of great defenses. He was IN NO WAY elite as a QB.
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They weren't elite defenses. They just showed up for the playoffs, same as Eli.
 
#28
#28
Football has 22 guys on the field. 1 stud QB doesn't make a team.
This ain't basketball................
 
#31
#31
This is an interview of the sports economist I've cited who did research on QB draft success rate. I've never been able to offer specifics because I didn't remember them, but he mentions some in this pod episode.

Picks 11-50 and 51-90 outperform QB's selected in the top 10 when you control for opportunities afforded to the draft pick.

He says part of it is due to the fact that they aren't as likely to get drafted by bad teams.

 
#39
#39
YankeeVol said:
I also think the situation they walk into plays a big role (franchise, coach on the hot seat, etc).
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During Mahomes first mini camp, he didn’t know how to identify the Mike linebacker.

It’s insane how much of it is reliant on the support system around you, yet at the same time it’s also completely about your physical ability, resiliency, ability to learn and understand quickly, your hand-eye coordination, etc.
 
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#40
#40
What’s also crazy is how these guys are used after the first team. It’s like “your support system matters” but nobody latches on to a second team and sticks. For guys drafted since 2010, I think only two 1st rounders made a pro bowl with their second team (Goff and Tannehill). Kind of insane.
 
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#41
#41
zjcvols said:
What’s also crazy is how these guys are used after the first team. It’s like “your support system matters” but nobody latches on to a second team and sticks. For guys drafted since 2010, I think only two 1st rounders made a pro bowl with their second team (Goff and Tannehill). Kind of insane.
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That's wild because, A) it's not hard to do, and B) it was the 2010's and his coach was Kingsbury!!!

There is a similar story with Brett Favre not knowing what a "nickel" meant, but this was the early 90's and it was still the early stages of the passing evolution.
 
#42
#42
zjcvols said:
What’s also crazy is how these guys are used after the first team. It’s like “your support system matters” but nobody latches on to a second team and sticks. For guys drafted since 2010, I think only two 1st rounders made a pro bowl with their second team (Goff and Tannehill). Kind of insane.
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It's because it's rare for a team to give up on a 1st rounder until they've been thoroughly tested, and if you prove you're good, you won't find a second team. Not that you said this, but they didn't let Goff walk, they traded him for a better QB. He made 2 Pro Bowls and a SB with the Rams. He didn't flunk with his first team and then find a 2nd team. They just upgraded.
 
#43
#43
I'm impressed that about 20% of 1st rd QBs turn out to be elite. That's not a longshot. Those are pretty good odds
 
#44
#44
Sea Ray said:
I'm impressed that about 20% of 1st rd QBs turn out to be elite. That's not a longshot. Those are pretty good odds
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There have been 32 1st rd QB's in the last 10 years. You count 7+ elite QB's in the league? I say there are only 2 right now. All above-average QB tiers:

Mahomes

Burrow

Elite _____-^ _____Elite

Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Stafford

Herbert, Lawrence

Goff, Purdy, Tua, Cousins, Dak, Stroud

Minshew, Dobbs, Geno
 
#45
#45
Elite seems like a dumb definition as it implies all-time (to me anyway).

Able to win a SB is a better measuring stick for any current pool of QBs. Applying that, huff's line moves down.
 
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#46
#46
n_huffhines said:
There have been 32 1st rd QB's in the last 10 years. You count 7+ elite QB's in the league? I say there are only 2 right now. All above-average QB tiers:

Mahomes

Burrow

Elite _____-^ _____Elite

Allen, Hurts, Lamar, Stafford

Herbert, Lawrence

Goff, Purdy, Tua, Cousins, Dak, Stroud

Minshew, Dobbs, Geno
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My comments are based on the OP where it had an analysis the first rd QBs taken from 1999-2019. That analysis considered 13 of them elite
 
#47
#47
95 Vol Alum said:
Elite seems like a dumb definition as it implies all-time (to me anyway).

Able to win a SB is a better measuring stick for any current pool of QBs. Applying that, huff's line moves down.
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In the OP they identified 13 QBs as elite. I don't have a hard time with their evaluations. Do you?
 
#48
#48
Sea Ray said:
In the OP they identified 13 QBs as elite. I don't have a hard time with their evaluations. Do you?
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It depends on how you define elite. But, yes, I don't see all 13 of those as truly elite. Watson and Murray, for example.
 
#50
#50
Sea Ray said:
At the time, I can understand why they'd be included.
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They are about as good at projection as anybody else.

Allen (Good) - seems like he is more Elite by their standard
Wentz & D. Jones (Good) - both barely in the league at this point
The entirety of their mediocre list has basically washed out as starters, minus Mayfield who is on his 4th team. Most would be considered busts as 1st rounders.
 
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