Draftnics: Success rate for 1st round QBs

[95 Vol Alum]

Interesting given Bryce Young. Love isn’t the guy. I hope the Packers stick with him.

@n_huffhines since this thread got bumped, I may have to mea culpa on Love. Almost literally after this post last season, he and the Packers went on a run. I hope I'm right as a Bears fan but could be eating crow if he sustains the performance he had in Nov & Dec last season.

 

[n_huffhines]

@n_huffhines since this thread got bumped, I may have to mea culpa on Love. Almost literally after this post last season, he and the Packers went on a run. I hope I'm right as a Bears fan but could be eating crow if he sustains the performance he had in Nov & Dec last season.

It happens

 

[zjcvols]

Updated:
Mahomes

Burrow, Allen, Stafford, Stroud

Herbert, Lamar, Hurts, Rodgers

Goff, Purdy, Cousins, Dak, Love

Tua, Minshew, Geno, Lawrence, Kyler, Baker

Yikes, I don’t like this list at all. Stafford over Lamar?????

Mahomes

Allen/Burrow/Jackson

Herbert/Stroud

Goff/Hurts/Prescott/Stafford

Lawrence/Love/Purdy/Tua

Cousins/Mayfield/Murray/Rodgers/Smith

 

[n_huffhines]

Yikes, I don’t like this list at all. Stafford over Lamar?????

Mahomes

Allen/Burrow/Jackson

Stroud/Herbert

Goff/Hurts/Prescott/Stafford

Lawrence/Love/Purdy/Tua

Cousins/Mayfield/Murray/Rodgers/Smith

Stafford can win a SB. Stafford took one of the worst teams to the playoffs last year and almost upset the Lions....with his best weapon out 5 games and then 80% all year and he was throwing to a 5th round WR, or whatever he was.

Jackson is the better regular season QB but Stafford can get you to the playoffs and actually win. Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs. His only 2 playoff wins (Houston and Tennessee) were games where his D held the other team under 2 TD's. He completes 57% of his playoff passes. 6 TD's, 6 INT's. He takes over 4 sacks a game. He's only passed for over 200 yards twice in those 6 games. He does have nearly 90 ypg rushing and 3 TD's, but he also has 6 fumbles.

I can't put him on the 2nd tier. There is so much good with Jackson, but the bad is what keeps him off. Stafford doesn't have as much good, and the only bad is really that he gets injured.

 

[zjcvols]

Stafford can win a SB. Stafford took one of the worst teams to the playoffs last year and almost upset the Lions....with his best weapon out 5 games and then 80% all year and he was throwing to a 5th round WR, or whatever he was.

Jackson is the better regular season QB but Stafford can get you to the playoffs and actually win. Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs. His only 2 playoff wins (Houston and Tennessee) were games where his D held the other team under 2 TD's. He completes 57% of his playoff passes. 6 TD's, 6 INT's. He takes over 4 sacks a game. He's only passed for over 200 yards twice in those 6 games. He does have nearly 90 ypg rushing and 3 TD's, but he also has 6 fumbles.

I can't put him on the 2nd tier. There is so much good with Jackson, but the bad is what keeps him off. Stafford doesn't have as much good, and the only bad is really that he gets injured.

Stafford has played 15 years in the NFL and has one season where he’s won a playoff game. He was good in 2023 but wasn’t MVP caliber.

Lamar has won 2 decisive MVP awards and is a Zay Flowers being a moron away from getting a chance to be in the Super Bowl. He’s twice lead his team to best record in football, something Staff has never come to doing. And he’s done that without a pro bowl WR (and remember Lamar missed Mark Andrew’s, his best target, for most of the season). And that doesn’t include Lamar hasn’t had any sort of offensive genius like Sean McVay for his career.

I love Stafford, I’m the Matthew Stafford defender but there isn’t one single GM in football that would take Stafford over Lamar for 2024. Not one.

 

[n_huffhines]

Stafford has played 15 years in the NFL and has one season where he’s won a playoff game. He was good in 2023 but wasn’t MVP caliber.

Lamar has won 2 decisive MVP awards and is a Zay Flowers being a moron away from getting a chance to be in the Super Bowl. He’s twice lead his team to best record in football, something Staff has never come to doing. And he’s done that without a pro bowl WR (and remember Lamar missed Mark Andrew’s, his best target, for most of the season). And that doesn’t include Lamar hasn’t had any sort of offensive genius like Sean McVay for his career.

I love Stafford, I’m the Matthew Stafford defender but there isn’t one single GM in football that would take Stafford over Lamar for 2024. Not one.

Stafford just hasn't been on good teams. Stafford literally had one above average defense ever in Detroit.

These are the Ravens' defensive rankings with Lamar. If you're a QB on that tier, you gotta turn that into more than 2 playoff wins.

 

[n_huffhines]

BTW, here are the 2023 QB tiers Mike Sando constructs by polling front office people. Not sure he's released the newest one or if it's behind a paywall.

Jackson and Stafford are on the same tier. I think Stafford raised his profile this year carrying a bad team. Jackson raised his profile with a 2nd MVP, but it's hard to shake the AFCCG where he had 37 pass attempts and 10 points at home.

 

[zjcvols]

BTW, here are the 2023 QB tiers Mike Sando constructs by polling front office people. Not sure he's released the newest one or if it's behind a paywall.

Jackson and Stafford are on the same tier. I think Stafford raised his profile this year carrying a bad team. Jackson raised his profile with a 2nd MVP, but it's hard to shake the AFCCG where he had 37 pass attempts and 10 points at home.

View attachment 635113

That was before the 2023 season when Lamar had injury concerns. And Jackson was still 2 spots ahead of Stafford

 

[n_huffhines]

That was before the 2023 season when Lamar had injury concerns. And Jackson was still 2 spots ahead of Stafford

I would say he is still an injury concern (and so is Stafford).

You said every GM would take Lamar for next year, and I just don't think that's true. Every single person polled picked Lamar and they're only two spots apart? Even if it is true, they aren't that far off. Some people find Lamar's 2nd MVP to be convincing. Others find another playoff disappointment to be convincing. At some point I gotta see success with that D. But I don't think you're wrong for taking Lamar. I just like my chances of winning a title with Stafford more.

 

[95 Vol Alum]

At some point I gotta see success with that D.

Don't we all, my man. Don't we all.