Anything is possible once you get into the NCAAT, but the S16 feels about right for this bunch. The inconsistencies, turnovers, FT woes, and lack of shooters isn't likely to carry them thru any further, but who knows what of breaks you catch.
My fear is that our ceiling is capped at a 4 seed, meaning we likely play a 13, 5, and 1 barring any upsets along the way to help us. It's why getting to that 3 line is so important, though seemingly unlikely unless we close 6-0. There's a path at 5-1, but the margin gets razor-thin, IMO, based on the teams ahead of us for those spots.
I've mentioned it before, but heard it recently gaining some traction elsewhere. This team reminds me of Cuonzo's last team. This team is better and will likely finish with a better record barring a total collapse, but the similarities are there. That 2013-14 team had 3 guys who all got a taste of the NBA. They rebounded the ball well but lacked shooters. That team got hot and played their best basketball at the right, though, and came a whisker away from the E8. I think if Gillespie, Ament, and JP all get going at the same time and show some consistency, this team is capable of a similar run.