Will we get a better bowl game if...

#51
#51
MWAVolfan said:
The question is who would be the next highest ranked team? The team that lost the SECCG with 3 losses or another team with 2 losses that didn't make the SECCG?

I would think the 2 loss team would have a higher national ranking.

I would think the Sugar bowl would be the most valuable and visible game for us to get, not the citrus.
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Unless that 2 loss team is the one that the entire nation watched get embarrassed at home the last time they played a good team. We aren't making it back into the top 10 by blowing out teams like Vandy. Other schools will jump us even if we continue to win.

If we go 10-2 and miss the SEC championship then we'll end up in a bowl game against an over ranked 10-2 Nebraska and blow them out in the Citrus or Outback bowl. What we need is for aTm to pull off the upset and hold on to win the West so we can get a rematch with them. We can win that game and go to the Sugar Bowl with an almost complete healthy team. Win there and we'll end the year a top 10 team with a 12-2 record
 
#52
#52
Way too early to discuss bowl games, with all the injuries, will the Vols lose 2 more games and finish 8-4?:crazy:
 
#53
#53
MWAVolfan said:
The question is who would be the next highest ranked team? The team that lost the SECCG with 3 losses or another team with 2 losses that didn't make the SECCG?

I would think the 2 loss team would have a higher national ranking.

I would think the Sugar bowl would be the most valuable and visible game for us to get, not the citrus.
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The one with 2 losses that didn't make it. Teams have almost never been rewarded any of the rankings systems for the extra loss that came as a result of playing the extra conference championship game.
 
#54
#54
If I'm not mistaken, Georgia went to the Sugar Bowl with a 2 loss record even after we destroyed them 35-14 in the 2007 season. So yes, very possible that we could get to a better bowl game without going to Atlanta. That said, I want another shot at the Tide to prove that we are not as bad as the beating we took last Saturday showed. We may not win, but I'm willing to bet we would earn some respect if we're close to healthy in December.
 
#55
#55
08Vol said:
Unless that 2 loss team is the one that the entire nation watched get embarrassed at home the last time they played a good team. We aren't making it back into the top 10 by blowing out teams like Vandy. Other schools will jump us even if we continue to win.

If we go 10-2 and miss the SEC championship then we'll end up in a bowl game against an over ranked 10-2 Nebraska and blow them out in the Citrus or Outback bowl. What we need is for aTm to pull off the upset and hold on to win the West so we can get a rematch with them. We can win that game and go to the Sugar Bowl with an almost complete healthy team. Win there and we'll end the year a top 10 team with a 12-2 record
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If we win the next 5 games, we will be back in the Top Ten for sure...

There will be 4-5 teams ahead of us that will get upset or beat causing them to drop... Hell it could start this weekend.... I like our chances to be in top 8 going into Conference championship weekend as long as we win out.

Hate to break it to you, but Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Nebraska will all lose and drop below us....

If there is anything we have seen more of this year than ever, it is how reactionary the polls are....
 
#56
#56
JMSqb11 said:
If we win the next 5 games, we will be back in the Top Ten for sure...

There will be 4-5 teams ahead of us that will get upset or beat causing them to drop... Hell it could start this weekend.... I like our chances to be in top 8 going into Conference championship weekend as long as we win out.

Hate to break it to you, but Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Nebraska will all lose and drop below us....

If there is anything we have seen more of this year than ever, it is how reactionary the polls are....
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THIS IS TRUE
It's better to lose in the 1st half of the season and then win out.
 
#57
#57
08Vol said:
Unless that 2 loss team is the one that the entire nation watched get embarrassed at home the last time they played a good team. We aren't making it back into the top 10 by blowing out teams like Vandy. Other schools will jump us even if we continue to win.
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You don't have to be in the top 10 for the New Years' 6 bowl games (I think you might also be confusing it a bit with the setup of the old BCS bowls, where you had to be ranked in the top 10 or higher). Ole Miss was ranked 16th and 9-3 prior to last year's Sugar Bowl. The 4 "New Years 6" bowls that aren't working as playoff sites go as follows this year:

  • The Sugar Bowl has to take the Big 12 Champion and the SEC Champion, unless either (or both) make the playoffs. If either (or both) makes the playoffs, then the Sugar Bowl has to take the next-highest ranked team from the same conference as the playoff team.
  • The Rose Bowl has to take the Pac-12 Champion and the Big 10 Champion, unless either (or both) make the playoffs. If either (or both) makes the playoffs, then the Sugar Bowl has to take the next-highest ranked team from the same conference as the playoff team.

  • The Orange Bowl has to take the ACC Champion (unless that team makes the playoffs, for which the Orange Bowl has to take the next highest ranked ACC team). The other team taken is the highest-ranked available team from the SEC and Big 10 remaining after the Sugar Bowl's and Rose Bowl's tie-ins are filled (for example, a #12 10-2 SEC team would be taken over a #15 Wisconsin of the same record). There is one exception to this: if that highest-ranked team creates a rematch from that season with the ACC team selected, the Orange Bowl has the option of passing it for the second-highest ranked team among the Big 10 and SEC teams available. (Notre Dame is eligible if they rank above those teams, but they won't be able this season)

  • The Cotton bowl this year has two at-large spots this year. However, because of the the contractual tie-ins of the 3 bowls mentioned above, the Cotton has to use one of those to invite the highest-ranked Group of 5/mid-major conference team in the final CFP rankings. The other comes from a Power 5 conference, also based on the rankings.
 
#58
#58
08Vol said:
If we go 10-2 and miss the SEC championship then we'll end up in a bowl game against an over ranked 10-2 Nebraska and blow them out in the Citrus or Outback bowl. What we need is for aTm to pull off the upset and hold on to win the West so we can get a rematch with them. We can win that game and go to the Sugar Bowl with an almost complete healthy team. Win there and we'll end the year a top 10 team with a 12-2 record
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At the moment, the top of the SEC is a follows: Alabama (4-0), Texas A&M (4-0), Auburn (2-1), LSU (2-1), UF (2-1), UT (2-2), Arkansas (1-2), and Ole Miss (1-2).

Among other teams:
UF still plays LSU and Arkansas.
Auburn still plays Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama.
LSU still plays Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, and A&M.
Arkansas still plays Auburn, UF, and LSU.
Ole Miss still plays LSU, Auburn, A&M.
A&M still plays Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU.
Alabama still plays A&M, LSU, and Auburn.

So in all likelihood, 4-5 of those teams will end up with another loss or 2, making a 10-2 team (whose last loss was in mid-October) most likely to end up as either the 3rd or 2nd highest ranked team in the conference, dependent on whether or not the A&M/Alabama loser loses another game afterward.


If both A&M and Alabama win out after their game, you would most likely see the A&M/Alabama loser receiving the Sugar Bowl invite. If the loser dropped a 2nd game, though, then UT (were it to miss playing in SEC Championship) could be in position to take that spot (depending on how far the loser falls).

The Big 10 winner will likely be the undefeated Ohio State / Michigan winner, who would make the playoffs, with the loser of that game likely filling the Rose Bowl bid at 11-1. While the Sugar Bowl bid might end up going to Texas A&M, the Orange Bowl bid would very likely come down to who's ranked higher out of 10-2 UT and Nebraska (which, because of the earlier losses, could likely be us). This of course can also depend on whether Wisconsin loses to or upsets Nebraska (and if they were to be able to upset the OSU/UM winner in the Big 10 Championship).


The chance at the Cotton Bowl is a bit more complicated. The ACC winner (Clemson or Louisville) would end up in the playoffs with the other in the Orange Bowl. Unless either an undefeated/ 1-loss Washington doesn't win out in the Pac-12 or a 1-loss Utah doesn't win out including the Pac-12 Championship, then their conference champion would make the playoffs with the other team being invited to the Rose Bowl. It would then essentially come down to what happened with the Big 12, as the conference champ would go to the Sugar Bowl. If either: (1) the Baylor/WVU loser loses another game, and OU loses another game (2) the Baylor/WVU winner makes the playoffs (sending next highest ranked Big12 team to the Sugar Bowl) whoever (3) OU wins the conference and the Baylor/WVU winner loses another game...pretty much you'd likely see a 10-2 UT that moved up the rankings through each week while the others were losing as probably the next highest available, were it somehow not to make the Orange Bowl.

(there are also variations that would result in the same, but I'd rather not get into each right now)
 
#59
#59
TrueOrange said:
At the moment, the top of the SEC is a follows: Alabama (4-0), Texas A&M (4-0), Auburn (2-1), LSU (2-1), UF (2-1), UT (2-2), Arkansas (1-2), and Ole Miss (1-2).

Among other teams:
UF still plays LSU and Arkansas.
Auburn still plays Arkansas, LSU, and Alabama.
LSU still plays Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, and A&M.
Arkansas still plays Auburn, UF, and LSU.
Ole Miss still plays LSU, Auburn, A&M.
A&M still plays Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU.
Alabama still plays A&M, LSU, and Auburn.

So in all likelihood, 4-5 of those teams will end up with another loss or 2, making a 10-2 team (whose last loss was in mid-October) most likely to end up as either the 3rd or 2nd highest ranked team in the conference, dependent on whether or not the A&M/Alabama loser loses another game afterward.


If both A&M and Alabama win out after their game, you would most likely see the A&M/Alabama loser receiving the Sugar Bowl invite. If the loser dropped a 2nd game, though, then UT (were it to miss playing in SEC Championship) could be in position to take that spot (depending on how far the loser falls).

The Big 10 winner will likely be the undefeated Ohio State / Michigan winner, who would make the playoffs, with the loser of that game likely filling the Rose Bowl bid at 11-1. While the Sugar Bowl bid might end up going to Texas A&M, the Orange Bowl bid would very likely come down to who's ranked higher out of 10-2 UT and Nebraska (which, because of the earlier losses, could likely be us). This of course can also depend on whether Wisconsin loses to or upsets Nebraska (and if they were to be able to upset the OSU/UM winner in the Big 10 Championship).


The chance at the Cotton Bowl is a bit more complicated. The ACC winner (Clemson or Louisville) would end up in the playoffs with the other in the Orange Bowl. Unless either an undefeated/ 1-loss Washington doesn't win out in the Pac-12 or a 1-loss Utah doesn't win out including the Pac-12 Championship, then their conference champion would make the playoffs with the other team being invited to the Rose Bowl. It would then essentially come down to what happened with the Big 12, as the conference champ would go to the Sugar Bowl. If either: (1) the Baylor/WVU loser loses another game, and OU loses another game (2) the Baylor/WVU winner makes the playoffs (sending next highest ranked Big12 team to the Sugar Bowl) whoever (3) OU wins the conference and the Baylor/WVU winner loses another game...pretty much you'd likely see a 10-2 UT that moved up the rankings through each week while the others were losing as probably the next highest available, were it somehow not to make the Orange Bowl.

(there are also variations that would result in the same, but I'd rather not get into each right now)
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And what if UT makes it to the SECCG and takes a 3rd loss?
 
#60
#60
MWAVolfan said:
And what if UT makes it to the SECCG and takes a 3rd loss?
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UT most likely is punished rankings-wise for the loss in the extra game. In that case, at 10-3, they'd most likely end up somewhere along the lines of the Citrus Bowl's selection or the somewhere in the Pool of 6 (which is the SEC offices deciding who goes to the Outback/Taxslayer/Music City/Belk/Liberty/Texas Bowls, based on things like what bowls this team has recently played in, how far the fanbase travels, avoiding rematches of recent season or bowl games, etc).

To still have that chance at the New Years 6 bowls following another loss in the SEC Championship, UT would need quite more things to happen...as things would get slim.

For example, getting to the Sugar Bowl would require something like: the West essentially falls apart (everyone other than Alabama ends the regular season with 3 or more losses) plus UF does something like lose to LSU, Arkansas, and FSU to end up with 4 losses.

The Orange Bowl would likely need everyone that's not Alabama and A&M in the SEC to end up with 3 or maybe more losses. Then something odd might have to happen...like Nebraska getting destroyed in 3 losses to Wisconsin, OSU, and the Michigan/OSU winner, and Wisconsin losing a game or two to someone they shouldn't (Iowa, MN, or Northwestern).


The Cotton...yeesh. You'd likely now need what I already mentioned in the SEC to happen (TN would have to still be the 3rd highest ranked SEC team after the drop...meaning everyone else in the conference other than Alabama and A&M would probably need to have 3+ losses). Wisconsin would need to lose to Nebraska and then another team (or Nebraska essentially bottoms out against OSU, Wisc, Iowa, and Minn)...whatever would put the 3rd ranked Big 10 team in the Orange Bowl. Everyone outside of the top two PAC-12 teams would need to have 3 or more losses. The currently higher-ranked ACC teams outside of Clemson and Louisville would all need to have 3 or more losses. And the Big 12 would pretty much need some situation where outside of the champion team, everyone would have 3 losses (so like, the Baylor/WVU winner keeps winning, OU beats one out of Baylor/WVU but gets blown out by the other, and the Baylor/WVU loser has to lose like 3 games total).


...Let's just say there's a bit of a dramatic drop in UT's chances of getting to one of those bowls with a 10-3 record after an SEC Championship loss.
 
#64
#64
MWAVolfan said:
I agree that this is the most likely scenario. My question is, do you think this is the best scenario?

Is losing a third game better than ending 10-2 and not making the SECCG?
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If Tennessee gets to Atlanta and puts up a solid fight against Bama then I think the Cotton Bowl will be the destination. Could end up in Sugar if AM loses 2
 
#65
#65
grizzliesrule888 said:
If we win that rematch, the Playoff committee will be faced with a tough scenario: leaving the SEC out of the playoff
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it's a longshot in the 1st place but would depend on how impressive UT looks in that win and the preceding games. Although, we being UT fans, know we are a good team, we seem not to be too impressive in some of our wins. On the other hand there's no team looking that impressive except for bama somewhat and they have tough games remaining. UT actually has their tougher games out of the way but this season has been so unpredictable almost anything is possible. UT has always been a good draw for bowl committees to consider.
P.S. Washington does impress me up to this point. Damn good QB IMHO.
 
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#66
#66
Sin City Vol said:
If Tennessee gets to Atlanta and puts up a solid fight against Bama then I think the Cotton Bowl will be the destination. Could end up in Sugar if AM loses 2
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Not likely for the Cotton with 3 losses, unless there are barely any 2-loss teams in position to be at-larges between the 5 power conferences. 10-3 would more than likely drop us behind quite several of the other 10-2 major schools.

As far as the Sugar goes, it's highest ranked SEC team if the champion's in the playoffs. 10-2 A&M would most likely be higher than a 10-3 UT that just lost that week, in the final CFP rankings.
 
#67
#67
Glocker_Alum_2005 said:
How's about the Orange Bowl vs. FSU or Louisville?
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At this point, it'd likely be Louisville there unless there's 2 or more losses still left on that schedule.
The rule is though that the highest ranking team out of the remaining SEC teams and remaining Big 10 teams - following the selections of the CFP, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl - goes to the Orange Bowl.

That aside, though, I'd be very glad with a Sugar, Orange, or Cotton Bowl bid.
 
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#68
#68
I am just going to worry about South Carolina, then whoever is next. Whatever happens happens. Contrary to all the neurotic posters who injured fingers this season typing their frustrations and questioning every coach, player, trainer, manager and janitor at ATC, I am still proud of our team, and their paranoid views won't change that.

Quit worrying. All it is going to do is keep you jumbled up and make you the butt of jokes the next time you type something amazingly mindless.
 
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#70
#70
MWAVolfan said:
We win out and Florida wins the east and gets destroyed by Bama. Florida may win the rest of its SEC games but they won't beat FSU. They would be a three loss team and we would be a two loss team and most likely finish higher in the polls?

Versus Tennessee winning the east and getting beaten by Bama again giving us 3 losses and no SEC title?
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I think Florida will lose to lsu and vols will play Alabama again. But to answer your question, I don't know. 10-2 vs 10-3 doesn't mean much of a difference to me since 2 of the losses will be to the #1 team in the country in that senorio.
 
#71
#71
Vols need to win out and win SECC to get a top 5 Bowl. Where would we land with 3 losses? A bowl in Florida, Texas or Arizona?
 
#72
#72
MWAVolfan said:
We win out and Florida wins the east and gets destroyed by Bama. Florida may win the rest of its SEC games but they won't beat FSU. They would be a three loss team and we would be a two loss team and most likely finish higher in the polls?

Versus Tennessee winning the east and getting beaten by Bama again giving us 3 losses and no SEC title?
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Screw that, I'll take my chances......... I wanna win the east and play on Dec. 3rd
 
#73
#73
TennFan said:
Vols need to win out and win SECC to get a top 5 Bowl. Where would we land with 3 losses? A bowl in Florida, Texas or Arizona?
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What bowl in Arizona? The Fiesta Bowl is a playoff semifinal this year.

If UT makes the SEC Championship, loses, and is 10-3, it's likely looking at the Citrus Bowl or something out of the Outback/Music City/Taxslayer/Liberty/Texas/Belk bowls, depending on the rankings of teams in the West.

If UT misses the SEC Championship and is 10-2, it's likely looking at something in Sugar/Orange/Cotton Bowl range (depending on how the other teams in the West finish and what their rankings are) or likely at worst, the Citrus Bowl.
 
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