VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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So getting a little ahead of ourselves--will Tennessee end the 2015 season ranked? Believe it or not, the chances are pretty good, if we win out.
Final standings in Division I-A are surprisingly steady, year after year. There will always be between 0 and 3 undefeated teams (average: 1), between 2 and 7 teams with 1 loss or less (average: 5), and between 9 and 15 teams with 2 or fewer losses (average: 12 ... one exception to this last rule; one year 17 teams ended with 2 or fewer losses). Happens year after year after year, like clockwork, since we went to a 12-game regular season. That means we can predict the end of 2015 with some degree of confidence.
In the CFP/BCS era, there have never been fewer than four teams ranked in the final AP poll with 4 or 5 losses. A few years saw 10 or more! In fact, in 1999, a record 11 teams ended the year in the AP Poll with 4 or 5 losses. On average, 6 to 7 teams to get ranked each year with 4 or 5 losses (no six-loss team has been ranked in the CFP/BCS era...or probably ever).
So if the Vols can win out, including our bowl game, we have a very good chance of being in the final AP Poll.
But how high? Well, the highest any 4-loss team was ever ranked in the CFP/BCS era was #12 in the country. That happened twice: Florida in 1999, and Tennessee (yes, us) in 2007. The average ranking of the best 4-loss team each year is about #16. With an average of 6.6 teams spread between #16 and #25, that makes the average 4-loss ranking at year's end somewhere around #20.
So: win out, and get a ranking somewhere between #12 and #25, likely between #16 and #20. Not too shabby. But we gotta win out. Including the bowl.
It is not rare for a 5-loss team to make the final AP poll, but it's not an annual occurence either. Happens about once every two years. Only once in the CFP/BCS era have two 5-loss teams made the Top 25 (Texas and Purdue back in 1999).
So, we lose one more game, and the chance drops dramatically that we would end the year ranked. If we were seen as the "best 5-loss team in the nation," maybe. But there are no games left this year that we could lose that wouldn't tarnish our current "best 4-loss team in the country" distinction (a left-handed compliment given to the Vols by a few different sports reporters since the Bama loss).
As mentioned at the outset, this is getting ahead of ourselves a little bit. First, we gotta win six straight games, which is not a gimme by any means. But it's kinda fun to look ahead to the possibilities. Would be nice to end the season ranked for the first time since 2007. And a nice way to build steam for a 2016 championship run. :good!:
Go Vols!
Final standings in Division I-A are surprisingly steady, year after year. There will always be between 0 and 3 undefeated teams (average: 1), between 2 and 7 teams with 1 loss or less (average: 5), and between 9 and 15 teams with 2 or fewer losses (average: 12 ... one exception to this last rule; one year 17 teams ended with 2 or fewer losses). Happens year after year after year, like clockwork, since we went to a 12-game regular season. That means we can predict the end of 2015 with some degree of confidence.
In the CFP/BCS era, there have never been fewer than four teams ranked in the final AP poll with 4 or 5 losses. A few years saw 10 or more! In fact, in 1999, a record 11 teams ended the year in the AP Poll with 4 or 5 losses. On average, 6 to 7 teams to get ranked each year with 4 or 5 losses (no six-loss team has been ranked in the CFP/BCS era...or probably ever).
So if the Vols can win out, including our bowl game, we have a very good chance of being in the final AP Poll.
But how high? Well, the highest any 4-loss team was ever ranked in the CFP/BCS era was #12 in the country. That happened twice: Florida in 1999, and Tennessee (yes, us) in 2007. The average ranking of the best 4-loss team each year is about #16. With an average of 6.6 teams spread between #16 and #25, that makes the average 4-loss ranking at year's end somewhere around #20.
So: win out, and get a ranking somewhere between #12 and #25, likely between #16 and #20. Not too shabby. But we gotta win out. Including the bowl.
It is not rare for a 5-loss team to make the final AP poll, but it's not an annual occurence either. Happens about once every two years. Only once in the CFP/BCS era have two 5-loss teams made the Top 25 (Texas and Purdue back in 1999).
So, we lose one more game, and the chance drops dramatically that we would end the year ranked. If we were seen as the "best 5-loss team in the nation," maybe. But there are no games left this year that we could lose that wouldn't tarnish our current "best 4-loss team in the country" distinction (a left-handed compliment given to the Vols by a few different sports reporters since the Bama loss).
~ ~ ~
As mentioned at the outset, this is getting ahead of ourselves a little bit. First, we gotta win six straight games, which is not a gimme by any means. But it's kinda fun to look ahead to the possibilities. Would be nice to end the season ranked for the first time since 2007. And a nice way to build steam for a 2016 championship run. :good!:
Go Vols!
