Will it really ever get "better"?

#51
#51
The Tall Gguy said:
This again...anyone who has been around Volnation for the past 6 years has seen the excuse wheel turn and turn and turn---year after year it is always the same pattern.

I don't want to be Vanderbilt East...that is a nightmare.
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Any high bridges in Virginia? If you can't see that the program is headed in the right direction then may as well jump now. It's not always the same pattern. How many top 5 recruiting classes did Dooley have? Butch is working on his second in two years. Patience will finally pay off but there will always be something to B**ch about if you so choose.
 
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#52
#52
The Tall Gguy said:
So many posters on VN say to give CBJ time to get his guys in the system as an excuse for this and last year. OK. I agree with that.

Preseason (Year 2) VN consensus was that 2015 (Year 3) is definitely the year we are back...but now it has moved to 2016 or 2017 (Year 4 or 5).

With that mentality:

Next year (Year 3), the same posters will be preaching some excuse about he just needs one more year to get the players to buy in to his system.

The next year (Year 4), the excuse will be that we don't have an experienced QB...and we lost our OLine, and our Defense lost all the good players....and the new 5* recruits need to get in and learn the system....because it take 3 years to learn the system, I guess.

It just goes on and on and on and there is never accountability...I can't agree with that.
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I've never heard people, until recently, say they think 2015 is the year UT is "back" - 2016 should set up to be a great year just because of the 4 full recruiting classes - that's what people are looking to...
 
#53
#53
Yes we will eventually lose Hurd, Malone, Dobbs, etc.etc.etc. That's what recruiting is all about. Every player eventually leaves. How do you fight this? With a great recruiter. If anything at all makes you optimistic, it has to be the players Butch and his staff are grabbing. And at least 75% of those players have all ready proven they can play. He has an eye for talent. And talent will go along way to our team returning to the "Power T Terror" we all miss so much. Butch is doing everything he can to not only bring good football back to Tennessee. But also he is selling Tennessee better than any of us could possibly imagine. Relax buddy. Enjoy this thrashing of Candy. Celebrate Christmas with a bowl game. And get use to the ladder.... We are about to go on on heck of a run.
 
#54
#54
LWSVOL said:
JMO

The risk whenever you change a coach is that you are just as likely to get no one any better then to get someone better. So you really don't know if the move is a positive or not

With every change, your roster gets greater turnover than stability provides. So you rewind whatever progress was made by the previous staff back to when they started. In other words, the rebuilding takes longer.

With every coaching change you impact your financial bottom line negatively. You take on another buyout situation which is not a positive.

I'm not going to make arguments with others that giving Jones more time is the right thing to do. I think 2 or 3 years in our situation is too short a timeframe to recover this program (I said 5 years the day he was hired). I will point out things that are likely to be negative impacts (like above and there could be others) as days move along.

Another negative is, every time you flip coaches after 3 years you continue to reduce the pool of coaches that would be interested in coming to Knoxville. In todays coaching world coaches are not interested in moving into jobs where they know only 3 years is what they will get. Young MAC or WAC level coaches will make the move. But big 5 conference coaches would have little to no interest.

So after year 3 or year 4 we can send Butch packing but very likely the program will be setback for a few years and have to work to rebuild back to the point he gets replaced.
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I agree with everything you posted. Buuuuuut, there is a fine line between keeping a coach just for the sake of continuity and cutting them loose because its not gonna get better. Your taking a chance either way.

Let me ask you this question, are you willing to accept 7 or 8 win seasons as being successful after the 4th or 5th year? If not, then your basically saying we would need to go in another direction after the 5th year. In that scenario didn't you just waste possibly three years to finally realize that it was not gonna work? Where do you draw the line? Are you really doing the program a favor by keeping a mediocre Coach (not referring to Jones) past three or four years just for the sake of continuity?

Just for arguments sake. Jones and staff are top shelf recruiters, we can all agree on that. Right? Ok, he brings in another top 10 class in 2015. In 2015 he goes 6 & 6 or maybe 7 & 5. We probably keep him for another year. Now in 2016 he brings in another top 10 class. In 2016 he goes 7 & 5. Do you keep him for another year? If so why?
 
#56
#56
Next yr will be tough, but I think we get the teams we should have had this yr. Ga, Fla, Missouri. Which should get us to the seccg.

No one expected much this yr, but since we got close and lost, people think we suck. It's a combination of things people (injuries, depth, and youth. Not excuses, it's reality). Next yr the results will come
 
#60
#60
FLSTF-VOL said:
I agree with everything you posted. Buuuuuut, there is a fine line between keeping a coach just for the sake of continuity and cutting them loose because its not gonna get better. Your taking a chance either way.

Let me ask you this question, are you willing to accept 7 or 8 win seasons as being successful after the 4th or 5th year? If not, then your basically saying we would need to go in another direction after the 5th year. In that scenario didn't you just waste possibly three years to finally realize that it was not gonna work? Where do you draw the line? Are you really doing the program a favor by keeping a mediocre Coach (not referring to Jones) past three or four years just for the sake of continuity?

Just for arguments sake. Jones and staff are top shelf recruiters, we can all agree on that. Right? Ok, he brings in another top 10 class in 2015. In 2015 he goes 6 & 6 or maybe 7 & 5. We probably keep him for another year. Now in 2016 he brings in another top 10 class. In 2016 he goes 7 & 5. Do you keep him for another year? If so why?
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When it's apparent that he's not getting the job done, we cut him loose. If he gets the job done, we extend him. This 6...7...10...back to 6 stuff is like trying to shoehorn a mathematical equation into coaching evaluation. Pinkel took over a historically hot garbage program in Mizzou...results weren't immediate...in one of his 6 win seasons he had a dynamic dual threat QB in Brad Jones, but there was still an inept offense...he actually went to one of his commit's high schools and copied their offense. HECK OF A PLAN! That commit was Chase Daniels and he started the string of success that established Pinkel...three years...then they were average crap again...fans called for his head three years ago, but the admin knew better and let him work his way out of it...what numerical formula is holding true there? Everybody's in a hurry to say this team needs to win this number of games next year...this many more the next and so on. What if we win 10 games next year and 6 the next? What if we win 11 the next 3 and 7 6 and 7 after that? How about we open our mind a little bit and see how hard the teams play for their coach and if recruits continue to flock to us? We know what doesn't work...trust us.
 
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#61
#61
butchna said:
When it's apparent that he's not getting the job done, we cut him loose. If he gets the job done, we extend him. This 6...7...10...back to 6 stuff is like trying to shoehorn a mathematical equation into coaching evaluation. Pinkel took over a historically hot garbage program in Mizzou...results weren't immediate...in one of his 6 win seasons he had a dynamic dual threat QB in Brad Jones, but there was still an inept offense...he actually went to one of his commit's high schools and copied their offense. HECK OF A PLAN! That commit was Chase Daniels and he started the string of success that established Pinkel...three years...then they were average crap again...fans called for his head three years ago, but the admin knew better and let him work his way out of it...what numerical formula is holding true there? Everybody's in a hurry to say this team needs to win this number of games next year...this many more the next and so on. What if we win 10 games next year and 6 the next? What if we win 11 the next 3 and 7 6 and 7 after that? How about we open our mind a little bit and see how hard the teams play for their coach and if recruits continue to flock to us? We know what doesn't work...trust us.
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Well said...I agree totally. :good!:
 
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#62
#62
butchna said:
When it's apparent that he's not getting the job done, we cut him loose. If he gets the job done, we extend him. This 6...7...10...back to 6 stuff is like trying to shoehorn a mathematical equation into coaching evaluation. Pinkel took over a historically hot garbage program in Mizzou...results weren't immediate...in one of his 6 win seasons he had a dynamic dual threat QB in Brad Jones, but there was still an inept offense...he actually went to one of his commit's high schools and copied their offense. HECK OF A PLAN! That commit was Chase Daniels and he started the string of success that established Pinkel...three years...then they were average crap again...fans called for his head three years ago, but the admin knew better and let him work his way out of it...what numerical formula is holding true there? Everybody's in a hurry to say this team needs to win this number of games next year...this many more the next and so on. What if we win 10 games next year and 6 the next? What if we win 11 the next 3 and 7 6 and 7 after that? How about we open our mind a little bit and see how hard the teams play for their coach and if recruits continue to flock to us? We know what doesn't work...trust us.
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What? How does any of that answer the question of "Do you keep a coach just for the sake of continuity?" Wasn't correlating it to any certain program or circumstance. It was in response to his reply about coaching turn over. I just used our staff as part of an example. Hence the "Just for arguments sake".
 
#63
#63
TCDuckman23 said:
Well said...I agree totally. :good!:
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Yes it was. Unfortunately it had nothing to do with the question "Do you keep a coach simply for continuity"? That was the bases for my reply to LWASVOL and his opinion about coaching turnover. Had zero to do with our staff.
 
#64
#64
FLSTF-VOL said:
I agree with everything you posted. Buuuuuut, there is a fine line between keeping a coach just for the sake of continuity and cutting them loose because its not gonna get better. Your taking a chance either way.

Let me ask you this question, are you willing to accept 7 or 8 win seasons as being successful after the 4th or 5th year? If not, then your basically saying we would need to go in another direction after the 5th year. In that scenario didn't you just waste possibly three years to finally realize that it was not gonna work? Where do you draw the line? Are you really doing the program a favor by keeping a mediocre Coach (not referring to Jones) past three or four years just for the sake of continuity?

Just for arguments sake. Jones and staff are top shelf recruiters, we can all agree on that. Right? Ok, he brings in another top 10 class in 2015. In 2015 he goes 6 & 6 or maybe 7 & 5. We probably keep him for another year. Now in 2016 he brings in another top 10 class. In 2016 he goes 7 & 5. Do you keep him for another year? If so why?
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7 or 8 win seasons:

You can only assess seasons after they are completed. If after year 5 it is 7 or 8 wins likely not good enough but what caused them? Were two losses due to referee poor calls? if so, you suddenly are looking at 9 or 10. What if massive injuries took out a bunch of starters? could that have cost a couple of games? You have to asses the games.

The bad thing with putting out numbers of having to win this many by such and such year is setting an expectation that you might have to back down from.

Generally, administration can get a feel for if you are headed down the wrong path. If that is case then maybe you pull the trigger regardless of the record. That was the feeling with Dooley. Pretty clear you didn't need to go further.

Short answer, yeah you might waste a couple of seasons but that is only known if you keep him and he follows through with bad seasons. If you change and make the wrong choice and it sets the program back 2 years you still lost a couple of seasons.

I just don't think it is cut and dry to say I the coach only wins 7 games in year 5, you should replace him. Now if your assessment is he is only winning 7 due to game planning, scheme and game management, you make the move for certain. You make that move as soon as your convinced that is a problem.
 
#65
#65
LWSVOL said:
7 or 8 win seasons:

You can only assess seasons after they are completed. If after year 5 it is 7 or 8 wins likely not good enough but what caused them? Were two losses due to referee poor calls? if so, you suddenly are looking at 9 or 10. What if massive injuries took out a bunch of starters? could that have cost a couple of games? You have to asses the games.

The bad thing with putting out numbers of having to win this many by such and such year is setting an expectation that you might have to back down from.

Generally, administration can get a feel for if you are headed down the wrong path. If that is case then maybe you pull the trigger regardless of the record. That was the feeling with Dooley. Pretty clear you didn't need to go further.

Short answer, yeah you might waste a couple of seasons but that is only known if you keep him and he follows through with bad seasons. If you change and make the wrong choice and it sets the program back 2 years you still lost a couple of seasons.

I just don't think it is cut and dry to say I the coach only wins 7 games in year 5, you should replace him. Now if your assessment is he is only winning 7 due to game planning, scheme and game management, you make the move for certain. You make that move as soon as your convinced that is a problem.
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Here is the thing, if you keep a coach that is under performing for too long, don't you run the risk of losing the fan base? Some of those issues you listed prior? Especially attendance, donations etc recruiting starts to fall off and so on.

In my opinion it does just as much damage.

If a coach is still winning no more than 7 games after year five, then yes I would contend that it would have to be a coaching issue. After 5 years, heck after 3 years he should be winning and playing for conference championships at a place like Tennessee (just an example). No other reason for not winning is feasible.
 
#68
#68
FLSTF-VOL said:
After 5 years, heck after 3 years he should be winning and playing for conference championships at a place like Tennessee (just an example). No other reason for not winning is feasible.
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I would like to know...honest question...when three years became the standard at Tennessee?

Since I've been following UT sports, with the exceptions of Johnny Majors and Dave Serrano, UT does not hire proven coaches. They hire up and comers. Obviously, the Cuonzo Martins and Butch Jones' of the world don't have the experience of a Calipari, Saban, even a Pinkel.

They are by the very definition hiring coaches that must learn on the job. They must recruit at a high level for their sport and they must be able to manage the talent and the games, and they must do it before the freshmen they recruited are even seniors and we pay the buy outs because no coach signs a three year contract. Hell, in the last few years we've paid as much money for coaches TO NOT coach as we have to those coaching. Raleigh and Dooley were bad hires and many new it immediately, I get that. What is going on with Jones is not that.

Everyone points at Saban and says Bama is the model. I'd say Alabama paid a lot of money for a very proven coach, that's not what happens here or most places.

Pinkel is a better model, that guy has been on the hot seat multiple times and is as under rated a coach as there is in college football. He's winning with player development...that takes time. If your teams don't get better, fine...if the teams get worse and the recruiting follows suit fine...but I just don't understand what is happening with Martin last year and Jones now. That's just my opinion. I mean, what publications had us winning the East this year?
 
#69
#69
vol66 said:
It's already better. In every way except the W/L column. We have a team that fights to the end, they don't give up, they don't quit. We don't seem to have prima donnas like we did with Dooley and the same rules seem to apply for everyone. That's definitely better. The recruiting is better and the high school relationships between the coaches is better. Attendance is better. The energy around the program is very positive compared to the last two football coaches.

With Dooley there were red flags, almost from the very start. That doesn't seem to be the case here. It's ridiculous to start thinking about a coaching change when they haven't finished year two.

To be plain...If I had to choose between placing my faith in Jones to get the job done or Hart to hire a better coach, I'm going with Jones.
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This is where I'm at. I honestly can't stomach resetting the clock again. Even if jones only returns us to 8 win seasons at best I just want to let us get to that point before we hang him.
 
#70
#70
The Tall Gguy said:
So many posters on VN say to give CBJ time to get his guys in the system as an excuse for this and last year. OK. I agree with that.

Preseason (Year 2) VN consensus was that 2015 (Year 3) is definitely the year we are back...but now it has moved to 2016 or 2017 (Year 4 or 5).

With that mentality:

Next year (Year 3), the same posters will be preaching some excuse about he just needs one more year to get the players to buy in to his system.

The next year (Year 4), the excuse will be that we don't have an experienced QB...and we lost our OLine, and our Defense lost all the good players....and the new 5* recruits need to get in and learn the system....because it take 3 years to learn the system, I guess.

It just goes on and on and on and there is never accountability...I can't agree with that.
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Ok, I'll feed the trolls. Year 4 we won't have an experienced QB??? You think Dobbs declares as a JR? Nope. Not to mention possibly the best WR corp in the SEC, and Hurd as a JR. Defense lost all the good players? :loco: ....yeah, Cam, Barnett, JRM, TK, KMack and Tuttle (assuming they live up to projections) are all garbage. No players at all!

We will be better next year, as in 8 wins +/- 1 depending on factors beyond control, but, yes, 2016 is the real bell cow year.
 
#71
#71
FLSTF-VOL said:
What? How does any of that answer the question of "Do you keep a coach just for the sake of continuity?" Wasn't correlating it to any certain program or circumstance. It was in response to his reply about coaching turn over. I just used our staff as part of an example. Hence the "Just for arguments sake".
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I keep forgetting that you're the Mensa who sided with American Pig in the Nathan Peterman beat out Dobbs threads... You thrive on going in circles and telling the other person that they're not being relevant. My post addressed wins and consistency and the fallacy in saying what's a consistent win pattern for a successful program...it was relevant but I'll let you reign on this...you're unreasonable and circular...I won't put you on ignore but I won't address anything concerning you...should help lower my post counts which seemed to be a major problem for you.. Consider it a win.
 
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#72
#72
butchna said:
I keep forgetting that you're the Mensa who sided with American Pig in the Nathan Peterman beat out Dobbs threads... You thrive on going in circles and telling the other person that they're not being relevant. My post addressed wins and consistency and the fallacy in saying what's a consistent win pattern for a successful program...it was relevant but I'll let you reign on this...you're unreasonable and circular...I won't put you on ignore but I won't address anything concerning you...should help lower my post counts which seemed to be a major problem for you.. Consider it a win.
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Dude, I could care less. You went off on some tangent about Pinkel and his Mizzou story as it correlates to UT (which I was very impressed with, probably the most you have posted that actually had substance). The discussion I was having with LSWVOL was about keeping coaches for the sole reason of continuity, period. That's all. Nothing about wins and consistency or what constitutes a consistent winning pattern. It wasn't about any particular team or program. What you posted is accurate, it just has nothing to do with what we were discussing. That's all. If you can't comprehend that I'm sorry.

And before you accuse me of something you better go back and reread that thread your referencing.
 
#73
#73
your logic is a bit flawed..... If we have this level of quality players coming in every year, we're always going to have players who are in the system, and we won't lose an entire O line and have this much inexperience, we will have juniors and seniors every year eventually who will always be experienced, thats how good recruiting works.
 
#74
#74
FLSTF-VOL said:
Dude, I could care less. You went off on some tangent about Pinkel and his Mizzou story as it correlates to UT (which I was very impressed with, probably the most you have posted that actually had substance). The discussion I was having with LSWVOL was about keeping coaches for the sole reason of continuity, period. That's all. Nothing about wins and consistency or what constitutes a consistent winning pattern. It wasn't about any particular team or program. What you posted is accurate, it just has nothing to do with what we were discussing. That's all. If you can't comprehend that I'm sorry.

And before you accuse me of something you better go back and reread that thread your referencing.
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I would think this...

You can only assess seasons after they are completed. If after year 5 it is 7 or 8 wins likely not good enough but what caused them? Were two losses due to referee poor calls? if so, you suddenly are looking at 9 or 10. What if massive injuries took out a bunch of starters? could that have cost a couple of games? You have to asses the games.

The bad thing with putting out numbers of having to win this many by such and such year is setting an expectation that you might have to back down from.

Generally, administration can get a feel for if you are headed down the wrong path. If that is case then maybe you pull the trigger regardless of the record. That was the feeling with Dooley. Pretty clear you didn't need to go further.
Click to expand...

...addresses keeping coaches for the sole reason of continuity.
 
#75
#75
vol66 said:
I would like to know...honest question...when three years became the standard at Tennessee?

Since I've been following UT sports, with the exceptions of Johnny Majors and Dave Serrano, UT does not hire proven coaches. They hire up and comers. Obviously, the Cuonzo Martins and Butch Jones' of the world don't have the experience of a Calipari, Saban, even a Pinkel.

They are by the very definition hiring coaches that must learn on the job. They must recruit at a high level for their sport and they must be able to manage the talent and the games, and they must do it before the freshmen they recruited are even seniors and we pay the buy outs because no coach signs a three year contract. Hell, in the last few years we've paid as much money for coaches TO NOT coach as we have to those coaching. Raleigh and Dooley were bad hires and many new it immediately, I get that. What is going on with Jones is not that.

Everyone points at Saban and says Bama is the model. I'd say Alabama paid a lot of money for a very proven coach, that's not what happens here or most places.

Pinkel is a better model, that guy has been on the hot seat multiple times and is as under rated a coach as there is in college football. He's winning with player development...that takes time. If your teams don't get better, fine...if the teams get worse and the recruiting follows suit fine...but I just don't understand what is happening with Martin last year and Jones now. That's just my opinion. I mean, what publications had us winning the East this year?
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Ok, I'm not being a smartass here, but did you just not see where I put in parentheses after the word Tennessee (just as an example)? I was simply using Tennessee as an example, not that what we were talking about actually applied to UT.

Nothing you stated is wrong in my opinion. But the fact is that most programs do use the three year mark as the bench. Heck one could use the Dooley tenure at UT as a good example of keeping a coach one year too long. In that third year Dooley did as much harm to this program as Kiffin did when he left. Maybe more.

I have never stated anywhere that the third year is the make or break year for CBJ. I think after the first half of next year we will have a really good idea of what he can accomplish. A lot of things can influence how it goes and I think you just have to let it play out. Its never really as bad as it seems and its never really as good as it seems.
 
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