Why no Hail Mary?

#26
#26
But the reality is, changing coaches won't help us, yet. Well, though, as I write this, maybe more talent in the wings isn't the problem.
 
#27
#27
I only see Medley kick once a week for a few months a year and I know he wasn't capable of making that kick
 
#29
#29
With time for only 1 play buTch had only 2 options...

1...Try another hail Mary that almost always fails

2...Try to kick a FG from beyond your kickers normal range


The kick was right on target but just a yard short, great attempt by Medley.

I'm crazy so I would have tried another hail Mary attempt knowing it would probably fail.

Best that could have come from that is a PI penalty against the Cocks and 1 last play to try a FG to tie it or a TD to Win it.

I tip my hat to Medley for having a kick that long at least on target when most kickers would have tried to kick too hard and would have shanked it way off.

The kid almost made a miracle kick, sad it was 1 yard short.

We're NOT dead yet my friends but we're close unless the Gators can lose 2 games and that IS possible.

VFL...GBO!!!
 
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#30
#30
I remember thinking how stupid spurrier was for trying the FG in the same situation against us last year. The irony of Butch doing the same thing smh
 
#31
#31
Titan&Volfan4life said:
With time for only 1 play buTch had only 2 options...

1...Try another hail Mary that almost always fails

2...Try to kick a FG from beyond your kickers normal range


The kick was right on target but just a yard short, great attempt by Medley.

I'm crazy so I would have tried another hail Mary attempt knowing it would probably fail.

Best that could have come from that is a PI penalty against the Cocks and 1 last play to try a FG to tie it or a TD to Win it.

I tip my hat to Medley for having a kick that long at least on target when most kickers would have tried to kick too hard and would have shanked it way off.

The kid almost made a miracle kick, sad it was 1 yard short.

We're NOT dead yet my friends but we're close unless the Gators can lose 2 games and that IS possible.

VFL...GBO!!!
Click to expand...

Just the touch of positivity/logic I needed to log off. Night Volnation. GBO
 
#32
#32
Titan&Volfan4life said:
With time for only 1 play buTch had only 2 options...

1...Try another hail Mary that almost always fails

2...Try to kick a FG from beyond your kickers normal range


The kick was right on target but just a yard short, great attempt by Medley.

I'm crazy so I would have tried another hail Mary attempt knowing it would probably fail.

Best that could have come from that is a PI penalty against the Cocks and 1 last play to try a FG to tie it or a TD to Win it.

I tip my hat to Medley for having a kick that long at least on target when most kickers would have tried to kick too hard and would have shanked it way off.

The kid almost made a miracle kick, sad it was 1 yard short.

We're NOT dead yet my friends but we're close unless the Gators can lose 2 games and that IS possible.

VFL...GBO!!!
Click to expand...

A yard short? Didn't it land in the end zone?
 
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#33
#33
The kick was dead on line, but about 8 yards short. But again, the concept of probability failed Butch, just as it did in the A&M game. Even if Medley somehow makes a 58 yarder, that just ties the game. As bad as tonight's loss sucks, imagine how much more of a gut punch it would be if Medley had somehow made the kick and then we lose in OT (likely on the road in front of a packed, loud house) to a freshman QB who looks like he's about 12? The Hail Mary wins it if it works, and that would have been a much shorter throw than the one Dobbs made versus Georgia.

I'd give Medley a 5% chance of making the kick, and that only sends it into OT.
I'd give the hail mary a 5-10% chance of working (we win, game over), and another 5-10% of drawing an interference penalty which moves you 15 yards closer, which gives Medley a 43 yarder. Maybe he still misses, but then it's at least a 40% chance.
 
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#34
#34
Titan&Volfan4life said:
With time for only 1 play buTch had only 2 options...

1...Try another hail Mary that almost always fails

2...Try to kick a FG from beyond your kickers normal range


The kick was right on target but just a yard short, great attempt by Medley.

I'm crazy so I would have tried another hail Mary attempt knowing it would probably fail.

Best that could have come from that is a PI penalty against the Cocks and 1 last play to try a FG to tie it or a TD to Win it.

I tip my hat to Medley for having a kick that long at least on target when most kickers would have tried to kick too hard and would have shanked it way off.

The kid almost made a miracle kick, sad it was 1 yard short.

We're NOT dead yet my friends but we're close unless the Gators can lose 2 games and that IS possible.

VFL...GBO!!!
Click to expand...

I appreciate the optimism but the kick wasn't a yard short. It landed in the endzone. It was well short. The SC fans were cheering the split second after it left his foot.
 
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#35
#35
I don't know if it's true, but heard Medley was 0/4 on 50+ yards and 2/7 of 40-49 yard field goals.

So, for argument's sake (or if someone can confirm the stats) let's assume that is true. Field goal kicking is one of the few things you can pretty much rely on for a statistical decision.

Why in the hell would you then ever kick a 58 yarder???
 
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#36
#36
I knew soon as he walked out there the game was over. That wasn't even a pretty kick. Boofed from the get go.
 
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#38
#38
DowntownVol said:
The kick was dead on line, but about 8 yards short. But again, the concept of probability failed Butch, just as it did in the A&M game. Even if Medley somehow makes a 58 yarder, that just ties the game. As bad as tonight's loss sucks, imagine how much more of a gut punch it would be if Medley had somehow made the kick and then we lose in OT (likely on the road in front of a packed, loud house) to a freshman QB who looks like he's about 12? The Hail Mary wins it if it works, and that would have been a much shorter throw than the one Dobbs made versus Georgia.

I'd give Medley a 5% chance of making the kick, and that only sends it into OT.
I'd give the hail mary a 5-10% chance of working (we win, game over), and another 5-10% of drawing an interference penalty which moves you 15 yards closer, which gives Medley a 43 yarder. Maybe he still misses, but then it's at least a 40% chance.
Click to expand...

You give a 10% chance of a hail mary to work? That's incredible.

People are clamoring for a play that likely has a probability of less than half a percent. Astonishing.

Complain about the 3 yard out to wolf or Dobbs taking 12 seconds for a 5 yard scramble. But assigning a 10%(or even 20 if PI which is never called) success probability to a hail mary is the most asinine thing I've ever read.
 
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#39
#39
TBrown said:
You give a 10% chance of a hail mary to work? That's incredible.

People are clamoring for a play that likely has a probability of less than half a percent. Astonishing.

Complain about the 3 yard out to wolf or Dobbs taking 12 seconds for a 5 yard scramble. But assigning a 10%(or even 20 if PI which is never called) success probability to a hail mary is the most asinine thing I've ever read.
Click to expand...

Still a higher percentage chance than Medley making that kick IMO.
 
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#41
#41
I am aware of the probability stuff, but here's where I get upset over that stupid FG attempt:

To try that kick was tantamount to quitting.

There was absolutely zero chance he could hit that field goal. And they already knew that. However, trying a pass play downfield or even the Hail Mary to the end zone would have at least showed that they were still fighting. Because we all know there are things that can happen on those plays to give you another chance. An athlete can make a play, coverage can end up busted, someone can catch it for a touchdown and we win, get a penalty like pass interference or roughing the passer to give us another play from closer...

Not to mention that Dobbs had run a touchdown for almost fifty yards earlier in the game, even though it was called back. A Hail Mary gives a chance for athletes to make a play and crazy things to happen, that field goal was giving up.
 
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#42
#42
Medley has played well for us but no chance in heck he makes a 58 yarder. A shot at the end zone would have been just as likely
 
#43
#43
ShoalCreekVol said:
I am aware of the probability stuff, but here's where I get upset over that stupid FG attempt:

To try that kick was tantamount to quitting.

There was absolutely zero chance he could hit that field goal. And they already knew that. However, trying a pass play downfield or even the Hail Mary to the end zone would have at least showed that they were still fighting. Because we all know there are things that can happen on those plays to give you another chance. An athlete can make a play, coverage can end up busted, someone can catch it for a touchdown and we win, get a penalty like pass interference or roughing the passer to give us another play from closer...

Not to mention that Dobbs had run a touchdown for almost fifty yards earlier in the game, even though it was called back. A Hail Mary gives a chance for athletes to make a play and crazy things to happen, that field goal was giving up.
Click to expand...

Precisely. You could have given Medley 20 tries at that range, with no defense on the field to rush/block the kick, and it's unlikely he makes one. It's an easy out for Butch, to be able to say, well, we had a shot at the tie, but we missed the FG, a damn shame, life goes on.

The 3 yard out to Wolf was ridiculous. Dobbs taking forever to scramble out of bounds was ridiculous - he should have thrown it away as soon as he realized he had nothing downfield, as wasting the down <<<< preserving the clock. Could have run at least 1 more play, maybe 2, before trying the kick.

When the chips are down, Butch plays not to lose instead of playing to win. Trying a 58 yarder there was the dictionary definition of playing to lose. It's a call that shields him from criticism and is an example of him putting his perceived job security ahead of putting his players in the best position to win the game.
 
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#45
#45
DowntownVol said:
The kick was dead on line, but about 8 yards short. But again, the concept of probability failed Butch, just as it did in the A&M game. Even if Medley somehow makes a 58 yarder, that just ties the game. As bad as tonight's loss sucks, imagine how much more of a gut punch it would be if Medley had somehow made the kick and then we lose in OT (likely on the road in front of a packed, loud house) to a freshman QB who looks like he's about 12? The Hail Mary wins it if it works, and that would have been a much shorter throw than the one Dobbs made versus Georgia.

I'd give Medley a 5% chance of making the kick, and that only sends it into OT.
I'd give the hail mary a 5-10% chance of working (we win, game over), and another 5-10% of drawing an interference penalty which moves you 15 yards closer, which gives Medley a 43 yarder. Maybe he still misses, but then it's at least a 40% chance.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't have been a much shorter throw. We were at the UGA 43. We were at the SCar 40. Three yards changed the decision from a Hail Mary to a FG for Jones.
 
#46
#46
Didn't matter...we lost because we were outcoached WAY before that.
 
#47
#47
ShoalCreekVol said:
I am aware of the probability stuff, but here's where I get upset over that stupid FG attempt:

To try that kick was tantamount to quitting.

There was absolutely zero chance he could hit that field goal. And they already knew that. However, trying a pass play downfield or even the Hail Mary to the end zone would have at least showed that they were still fighting. Because we all know there are things that can happen on those plays to give you another chance. An athlete can make a play, coverage can end up busted, someone can catch it for a touchdown and we win, get a penalty like pass interference or roughing the passer to give us another play from closer...

Not to mention that Dobbs had run a touchdown for almost fifty yards earlier in the game, even though it was called back. A Hail Mary gives a chance for athletes to make a play and crazy things to happen, that field goal was giving up.
Click to expand...

that is so dumb I don't know where to start..his fg attempt at florida that missed would have gotten 60 yards of distance..figuring percentages like this is just common sense and if you think the chances are close to zero of medley making that fg you have very little of it.

His odds of making that were probably 4-5x as high as a hail mary..medley would make that kick about every 4-6 attempts..a hail mary? Considering we have never had one in my lifetime for or against us I will be generous and say you might get 1 out of 15-25 attempts. These numbers should be common sense to anyone who watches fb..

we probably have the wrong coach and he has made plenty of strategic errors but that wasn't one of them..a medley attempt was a no brainer.
 
#48
#48
PowerSweep said:
that is so dumb I don't know where to start..his fg attempt at florida that missed would have gotten 60 yards of distance..figuring percentages like this is just common sense and if you think the chances are close to zero of medley making that fg you have very little of it.

His odds of making that were probably 4-5x as high as a hail mary..medley would make that kick about every 4-6 attempts..a hail mary? Considering we have never had one in my lifetime for or against us I will be generous and say you might get 1 out of 15-25 attempts. These numbers should be common sense to anyone who watches fb..

we probably have the wrong coach and he has made plenty of strategic errors but that wasn't one of them..a medley attempt was a no brainer.
Click to expand...

Except he's never hit one 50+ and was only 6-20 prior to that attempt on kicks of 40+
 
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