Why is 8 - 4 "realistic"?

[Bluetic]

Problem is, the all knowing, never get anything wrong, perfect analysts started this over zealous hype train in the off season that had a lot of people thinking we were gonna win the dang SEC after coming off of a 7-6 season. Why? Because of 2 top 5 recruiting classes? Most realistic fans and Butch himself tried to curb the hype. I'll be pretty damn happy with a 8-4 regular season and a bowl win. That's huge progress in my opinion.

9 wins? Take it and run.:good!:

 

[sjt18]

I said 8-4 before the season and still see that as a reasonable FLOOR for this coach, this team, this season.

I don't care as much about the bowl since you seldom know who your match up is going to be.

For instance, if UT wins out then they'll finish 2nd in the East either behind UF and UGA tied or tied with UGA. If UGA loses to UF and Auburn then UT would finish in sole possession of 2nd in the East. UT could still end up around 5th in the bowl pecking order after the West plays out.

They could end up playing someone like Mich St, Michigan, or even FSU if it fell just right.

Odd possibility. If UT gets Music City or Taxslayer again then their opponent could be Duke or Pitt.

Pitt would be fun with Peterman starting at QB for them.

 

[IzzyFoReal]

8-4 is realistic because of the talent we will put on the field. Alabama and UGA games showed vast improvement in execution over the first part of the season (except for FGs). The key will be keeping a "boot on the throat" mentality instead of falling into a "protect the lead" mentality, as we will probably have early leads in most of these last 5 games. That hasn't gone well for us so far this season.

 

[dcm3w]

We have the talent to have gone undefeated but not the depth and experience. Now, you could argue the experience but I mean 40 freshman in two years is a lot. But our losses are a huge collection of things.

Yes, Butch/DeBord made questionable calls in a few games that impacted the outcome. But people never notice the small things such as huge 3rd and 4th downs and missed tackles. We would have won the Oklahoma game if we could have wrapped up Mayfield multiple times...and surprisingly Coker in the last drive. We've had bad offensive play calling at times that could have impacted but it really comes down to the defense not performing late and/or mismanagement of the offense causing the D to falter. This season reminds me (not entirely) of Dooley's last year because we were so close to having a pretty decent record except our defense that year happened to be the worst in TN history.

Check our defensive stats before the AL game, I think we were giving up 400+ yards a game. Hell, Florida seemed untouchable on 3 & 4th conversions. Don't forget that one 4th down play went 60 yards for us to lose.

 

[dcm3w]

Also, we've given up way too many deep passes. We would've went to OT if that Georgia receiver didn't drop the ball.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

"Butch blew the Oklahoma & Florida games after double digit leads in the second half"
Butch did NOT make THREE Tenn defenders FALL DOWN on Floridas 4th Down TD.. He also didn't snap the ball over Dobbs head against OU to put Tenn out of field goal range. He Hasn't missed numerous field goals or dropped certain TDs..
What he did do is refuse to throw the player or players under the bus and took the blame on himself..

Players play and coaches coach. Been that way for years. Butch should have taken the blame. He is the one coaching them up.

 

[volgrad500]

If I had told you before the season started that we would play these teams under the following circumstances, would you honestly believe we only had one win?
-OU at home with a double digit lead.
-Florida playing a freshman QB with 3 freshman OL and with a first year head coach
-UGA 6 days after Bama beat them by 4TDs at home and losing Chubb on the very first play of the game
-a 1-3 Arkansas team, including a home loss to Toledo
-an Alabama team that had already lost at home and was playing it's 4th consecutive SEC game while we were coming off a bye

An 8-4 season at this point means we will not have beaten ANYONE that will come close to being ranked in the top 25 at the end of season. And in fact, our highest ranked win will likely be be Bowling Green. Just like I've said for the past two seasons, you can say that there is improvement under Butch, but arguing that it has shown on the field is a lot more tricky than some of you want to admit.

 

[GAVol]

If I had told you before the season started that we would play these teams under the following circumstances, would you honestly believe we only had one win?
-OU at home with a double digit lead.
-Florida playing a freshman QB with 3 freshman OL and with a first year head coach
-UGA 6 days after Bama beat them by 4TDs at home and losing Chubb on the very first play of the game
-a 1-3 Arkansas team, including a home loss to Toledo
-an Alabama team that had already lost at home and was playing it's 4th consecutive SEC game while we were coming off a bye

An 8-4 season at this point means we will not have beaten ANYONE that will come close to being ranked in the top 25 at the end of season. And in fact, our highest ranked win will likely be be Bowling Green. Just like I've said for the past two seasons, you can say that there is improvement under Butch, but arguing that it has shown on the field is a lot more tricky than some of you want to admit.

UGA is going to finish ranked.

...and arguing that we've improved on the field is rather easy actually. It may not be showing up in the win column as often as we'd like, but it's obviously there.

 

[volgrad500]

UGA is going to finish ranked.

...and arguing that we've improved on the field is rather easy actually. It may not be showing up in the win column as often as we'd like, but it's obviously there.

You may be right, but I just don't see it. They have 4 actual games left (not counting Georgia Southern game) against Florida, Kentucky, at Auburn, and at Georgia Tech.

They aren't ranked now, and are likely to lose against FL. The Kentucky game will be a toss up, but even a win isn't likely to move them back into the polls. At Auburn is probably a loss. Georgia Tech is probably a win (they are 1-4 in ACC) but it's a rivalry game and they did just beat FSU so could go either way.

 

[daj2576]

naturally, there has been a lot of talk about 8 - 4. This was the "expectation," it was "realistic," it's progress.

No doubt it's progress. No doubt this is a hell of a better football team than when they were looking for rommel.

But if anything, what this season has proven is that it was very realistic to have the expectation at 10 - 2 (my prediction). Quite frankly, we are a group of coaches finished with their big-5 ojt away from being 12 - 0. And that's very realistic.

The question is: Is butch finished with his ojt? Does he know better how to handle a true top 10 team? Should azzanni and mahoney be allowed to coach team 120? What about others? Is debord truly good enough? What about jancek and his 4th quarter crew?

I'm not going to lie. The nature in the way we have thrown away greatness (and i place the blame 100% on the bsia) this year has put me on the fence with butch. In every loss he has made huge coaching errors - errors which converted the better team into the losing team. To be honest, there is nothing left to judge progress. Only bad things can happen from here on out and those must not happen.

I suppose the bowl game opponent may give us an indication of whether we are over the collective ojt and moving forward to competing for the sec. Team 120 should. It was more than realistic to believe team 119 as well.

Win the east
beat florida

 

[VFL-82-JP]

You may be right, but I just don't see it. They have 4 actual games left (not counting Georgia Southern game) against Florida, Kentucky, at Auburn, and at Georgia Tech.

They aren't ranked now, and are likely to lose against FL. The Kentucky game will be a toss up, but even a win isn't likely to move them back into the polls. At Auburn is probably a loss. Georgia Tech is probably a win (they are 1-4 in ACC) but it's a rivalry game and they did just beat FSU so could go either way.

Looking at their remaining schedule, they'll end up either 8-4 or 9-3. At 9-3, they will certainly be ranked (3-loss Power 5 teams are almost always ranked in the CFP/BCS era), and at 8-4 they likely will as well (again, looking at the historical stats).

View attachment 102197

So according to the chart, we overperformed once (UGa) and underperformed twice (OK and Arky).

Sounds about right. Though it's funny that we were closer to winning OK and FL than OK and Arky.

Assuming no more losses, of course.

Go Vols!

 

[djohnnyg]

Breaking News: Just because Butch has had two great recruiting classes doesn't mean it will translate into beating Fla and Bama or Arkansas or anybody else. Lebitard on ESPN said Al Golden's classes at Miami were actually ranked as good or better than Clemson in the same time period; yet Clemson CRUSHED them 58-0 which is a big part of why Golden is out at Miami. Lots of talent according to Rivals et al but still losing on the field.

Butch is arguably personally responsible for losing to Fla twice, Ok, and Arkansas just to mention a few where his stamp is firmly affixed to those heart breaking losses.

You can't have a coach who not only can't get his team to the "W" but is actually hampering you from getting the win. You can't lose "because of" your HC and be respected as a good HC.

We all hope he can win out and we expect glorious things next year, but I don't know how anyone who is looking at this pragmatically and realistically can be confident in his coaching.

I'm rooting for him, I really am, but I don't have a lot of confidence in his game decisions that have already cost this program at least a few games just this yr.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Naturally, there has been a lot of talk about 8 - 4. This was the "expectation," it was "realistic," it's progress.

No doubt it's progress. No doubt this is a hell of a better football team than when they were looking for Rommel.

But if anything, what this season has proven is that it was VERY realistic to have the expectation at 10 - 2 (my prediction). Quite frankly, we are a group of coaches finished with their Big-5 OJT away from being 12 - 0. And that's very realistic.

The question is: is Butch finished with his OJT? Does he know better how to handle a true Top 10 team? Should Azzanni and Mahoney be allowed to coach Team 120? What about others? Is Debord truly good enough? What about Jancek and his 4th quarter crew?

I'm not going to lie. The nature in the way we have thrown away greatness (and I place the blame 100% on the BSiA) this year has put me on the fence with Butch. In every loss he has made huge coaching errors - errors which converted the better team into the losing team. To be honest, there is nothing left to judge progress. Only bad things can happen from here on out and those MUST NOT HAPPEN.

I suppose the bowl game opponent may give us an indication of whether we are over the collective OJT and moving forward to competing for the SEC. Team 120 should. It was more than realistic to believe Team 119 as well.

Win the East
Beat Florida

Dude, please stop with the threads. They are all negative and at this point I could care less if they were positive. It's like you can't go two hours without starting a thread.

Freak, can you make eddie a forum that we can place all 10 of his daily threads?

 

[Wylo]

Theres noone left to beat us. We had our tough schedule. I wish we could have won two of those but oh well. We're a 9 win team once the bowl is over. That's progress.

A nine win team after the bowl? How do you know? Do you know the matchup already?

I love the ignorant confidence some of you have. Just assuming 6 wins when Butch has managed only 3 to this point is more than just faith.

But good luck with that. Hope you're right.

 

[sanddune50]

I find it hilarious that people automatically assume were going to win a bowl game when we have no idea who were going to play, when and if we even go to a bowl game.

I find it hilarious you leave the door open for us to miss a bowl game.

 

[Cartervol]

A nine win team after the bowl? How do you know? Do you know the matchup already?

I love the ignorant confidence some of you have. Just assuming 6 wins when Butch has managed only 3 to this point is more than just faith.

But good luck with that. Hope you're right.

We're 3-4 for a reason. Yeah it was against good teams, but 3-4 is 3-4.. I'm not confident this team can reel off 5 straight... There are some problems in the passing game, and Dobbs tends to take sacks when he could get the ball out of there. Continue that and i wouldn't count on 5 straight. Wouldn't bet on it either.

 

[volgrad500]

Looking at their remaining schedule, they'll end up either 8-4 or 9-3. At 9-3, they will certainly be ranked (3-loss Power 5 teams are almost always ranked in the CFP/BCS era), and at 8-4 they likely will as well (again, looking at the historical stats).



So according to the chart, we overperformed once (UGa) and underperformed twice (OK and Arky).

Sounds about right. Though it's funny that we were closer to winning OK and FL than OK and Arky.

Assuming no more losses, of course.

Go Vols!

Hey 82! Where ya been? Haven't seen as much of you. I'll tell you what, if UGA ends up winning 9 games I'll eat my hat lol.

 

[Other_Guy]

10-2 lol lol lol

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Hey 82! Where ya been? Haven't seen as much of you. I'll tell you what, if UGA ends up winning 9 games I'll eat my hat lol.

Hey man

Yeah, maybe not 9-3, maybe just 8-4. Between Kentucky, an uncharacteristically weak Auburn, and an uncharacteristically weak Ga Tech, the Dawgs could pull out all three (plus Ga Southern) to get to 9 ... but they might only get two of those three. They do have a chance of beating Florida, but not a great one. Of course, we'd love if they do...that's a necessary step toward us going to Atlanta (hahaha, we have like a 1.5% chance of that, according to ESPN FPI).

It's good seeing you around, too! :good!:

 

[KingtUT]

I find it hilarious you leave the door open for us to miss a bowl game.

Thats because there is a very slim chance we may not. Thats a fact. Im sure we will but until we get #6 its not a given. Id like to think we win out.

 

[mercuryvol]

If they win out (I believe they will),8-4 is about what I expected. No doubt in my mind this is a better team than 8 weeks ago. That is good coaching. We still don't have any depth and that's a reflection of what the previous so-called coaches left for CBJ to clean up and that job is STILL ongoing and will be for another couple years. However, I'm not convinced that CBJ is adept at in game tactical change or that he has the right men in place as assistants, but until they have the players I don't think we can REASONABLY judge.

 

[daj2576]

Looking at their remaining schedule, they'll end up either 8-4 or 9-3. At 9-3, they will certainly be ranked (3-loss Power 5 teams are almost always ranked in the CFP/BCS era), and at 8-4 they likely will as well (again, looking at the historical stats).



So according to the chart, we overperformed once (UGa) and underperformed twice (OK and Arky).

Sounds about right. Though it's funny that we were closer to winning OK and FL than OK and Arky.

Assuming no more losses, of course.

Go Vols!

UT and OK are closer together in talent on their two deep than the numbers would suggest. I call that game a coin toss, but certainly don't find it unreasonable to call it an under-performance given the home-field advantage.

To me, Arkansas and UGA offset each other, as we are clearly more talented than Arky and clearly less than UGA. The OK game is a toss at best, or a negative 1 performance at worse.

Either way, we are on track of the expectations within the SEC. For comparison Gus Malzahn, a coach with an extremely talented roster, whom many believed was a wizard a few years ago, is trending at -3 games below his predictions, and it is likely to get worse for him. I don't believe Malzahn has ever had a net positive season compared to talent expectations, but that didn't stop many from annointing him some sort of football demi-god. Spurrier, before he quit, was at -2. Of note, the threshold for firing a coach is right at -4 games, except if you are Florida and Will Muschamp. Then -4 games gets you another season.

Here is how the SEC is shaking out so far.

 

[daj2576]

Breaking News: Just because Butch has had two great recruiting classes doesn't mean it will translate into beating Fla and Bama or Arkansas or anybody else. Lebitard on ESPN said Al Golden's classes at Miami were actually ranked as good or better than Clemson in the same time period; yet Clemson CRUSHED them 58-0 which is a big part of why Golden is out at Miami. Lots of talent according to Rivals et al but still losing on the field.

Butch is arguably personally responsible for losing to Fla twice, Ok, and Arkansas just to mention a few where his stamp is firmly affixed to those heart breaking losses.

You can't have a coach who not only can't get his team to the "W" but is actually hampering you from getting the win. You can't lose "because of" your HC and be respected as a good HC.

We all hope he can win out and we expect glorious things next year, but I don't know how anyone who is looking at this pragmatically and realistically can be confident in his coaching.

I'm rooting for him, I really am, but I don't have a lot of confidence in his game decisions that have already cost this program at least a few games just this yr.

It isn't that hard to fact check these statements.

And, they are false (according to rivals).

Clemson's last 4 classes average to the 11th best in the nation with a value of 11.75. Miami's last four classes averaged to 20th best in the nation at a value of 23. Ironically, in raw numbers, that is roughly the same difference in talent between Alabama and Tennessee, or about half of the difference in talent between Tennessee and Kentucky.

 

[5FingerVolPunch]

Your standard is too low. Eight was the floor for this team and that's after calculating in the possibility of significant injuries... which UT has had.

There are NO "realistic" fans who expected less than 8 wins. Why? Because of roster improvements AND a weaker schedule- USCe and MU are both worse. Ark isn't as good as Ole Miss last year. UK and Vandy are who they are. The home/away schedule should have been a major advantage as well.

Ok, so with the exception of Arkansas, you listed a bunch of teams we haven't even play yet and will probably beat. Oklahoma doesn't suck, Florida doesn't suck, Alabama doesn't suck. Truthfully Arkansas doesn't suck either. My standard is not low. I'm just realistic. Butch is rebuilding a broken program and making progress every year. I'm happy with progress as long as I think it's going to continue and I have no reason to think it won't.

 

[rmeharv]

Yes there were coaching mistakes in a couple of games but please don't forget the fact that the coaches did not leave 17 points on the field against Ark, and they can't catch passes they threw to themselves or hold on to the ball and not fumble or kick field goals. There have been issues across he board this year and the TEAM has gotten better because of them. Don't convince yourselves that we passed better against UGA and Bama due to coaching or the plays called. Execution has to come in to play eventually. Even in the eyes of the armchair quarterbacks (coaches).