Who saw the E:60 story on Ark HS coach that never punts?

#1
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PowerSweep

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#1
It was particularly interesting for me because I have been saying for years that punting is mostly pretty dumb...ALWAYS bad in high school(where it nets about 20-25 yards), MOSTLY bad in college(high 30's), and GENERALLY bad in the NFL(low 40's). The difference in all 3 is what a normal outcome is on a punt.

What seems crazy to me is that we have known for a long time now that statistically it doesn't make much sense. Even from a non statistical standpoint it is a voluntary turnover...throw a pick 20 yards downfield? Terrible says the average fan...30 yard net punt from the 39 yard line downed at the 9? Good job! How silly is that?

I guess it is just a consequence of normal human motivations..do something conventional and lose and it was the player's fault..do something UNconventional and lose an it is your fault. For an example look at the obviously statistically correct call belichik made going for 4th and 1 on his own 29 late in a game vs colts several yrs ago.

But change is possible, and baseball shows it...the stat guys have changed strategy immensely in the past decade or so, and I have to think eventually the same thing will happen in football. It is criminal for some of these guys making millions to not have a better grasp of risk/reward in terms of strategy.

While I am on it, some other dumb things coaches often do...calling timeouts to save clock after a first down in college(thus wasting 15 seconds), saving timeouts for the offense(although you see that less now), not kicking onsides when you kick off from midfield, not going for 2 after a defensive penalty on xp attempts, not just letting other team score when down 1 very late(say other team has it up 21-20, 1st-10 at your 36 w 2:29 left and no to's)...those are off the top of my head...non football but not fouling up 3 under 10 seconds another head scratcher

any thoughts? anyone see that story?
 
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#5
#5
I saw it, and I do agree that you should go for it between the 50 and the opposing teams ~40. Only if it's reasonable though, like less than 10 yards to go for the first. It is stupid to punt on 4th and less than roughly 4. There's statistically more chance of you getting it. Depends on the situation though too. Idk *shrugs*
 
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#6
#6
We can argue over it all day. I'm just waiting to see someone put their multi-million dollar salary on the line and PROVE they believe in it.
 
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#7
#7
livefaith said:
We can argue over it all day. I'm just waiting to see someone put their multi-million dollar salary on the line and PROVE they believe in it.
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no doubt...change perhaps much tougher in sports than any industry..

In 2005, your columnist chatted at a cocktail party with Don Shula, asking him if there was any fundamental football innovation yet to be tried. "Someday," Shula said with a twinkle in his eye, "there will be a coach who doesn't punt."
 
#8
#8
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Flipping the field is a real thing. Helps to have a Colquit as the weapon of choice.
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This is my honest feeling. If you can pin your opponent down, especially if they have trouble moving the ball, it helps.
 
#10
#10
The strength of the opposing offense would dictate the possible strategy. If it's a high powered offense that routinely marches to the red zone, then punting from your 40 or the 50 means that your defense will be spending more ToP minutes on the field. I felt like never punting would have been a sound strategy a few years ago at Oregon. But not against every opponent... sometimes there are defensive struggles.
 
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#12
#12
I would never punt within the 50. It's exactly like baseball awhile back. Nobody wants to risk their careers going against conventional wisdom, even when it's wrong.
 
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#14
#14
Burger said:
I would never punt within the 50. It's exactly like baseball awhile back. Nobody wants to risk their careers going against conventional wisdom, even when it's wrong.
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It's stupid to say never because we know that's false.
 
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#15
#15
crusse10 said:
It's stupid to say never because we know that's false.
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No kidding. 4th and 25 from the 50? You punt that all day long.

Now, 4th and 3 and you have an argument.

However, if you are going to do that, It only makes sense to skip extra points, too.
 
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#16
#16
EZE said:
No kidding. 4th and 25 from the 50? You punt that all day long.

Now, 4th and 3 and you have an argument.

However, if you are going to do that, It only makes sense to skip extra points, too.
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ehh..expected return on xp and 2 pt attempt both about .98 so going f 2 neither hurts nor helps...xp might even be higher as that assumes 49% 2pt success but after half the distance you should always go f 2 as expected return would then be much higher than xp
 
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#17
#17
PowerSweep said:
ehh..expected return on xp and 2 pt attempt both about .98 so going f 2 neither hurts nor helps...xp might even be higher as that assumes 49% 2pt success but after half the distance you should always go f 2 as expected return would then be much higher than xp
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So all attempted 2 point extra points are converted 49% of the time. But if you have a much better than average offense with multiple options at picking up the three yards then the expected rate of return will be considerably more... probably 1.1+.
 
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#19
#19
I hate to sound like the old men on Moneyball but never punting is absolutely ridiculous. Football is not baseball. In baseball if everyone strikes out and you don't get any runs, it has NO bearing whatsoever on the other team's offense when they come out. In football if you are on your own 35 and don't convert even a 4th and 1, you've just given your opponent 35 yds to go for 6 pts (much much less for 3) when it very easily could've been 70+. Stats have their place in football and certainly there is a window on the field and a certain distance range to convert the down where you should just about always go for it, but there is also a judgement call that has to be made by the coach that factors in current tempo/momentum of the game (team/crowd), ramifications to said tempo/momentum if you do not convert, likelihood you're going to convert, etc etc. The list of intangibles that go into that decision is long and a coach has about 15-20 seconds to decide one way or another.
 
#20
#20
Some of the logic for not punting is your whole philosophy on 1-3downs changes. If you know you won't punt then third and nine becomes more about making 4th more manageable instead of dropping back letting the defense know it's either,pass /screen etc. To get all nine yards.
I do believe this makes the most sense in lower levels where punting is very unpredictable.
If you have a great punter, use them.
I do believe some coach soon will start gambling more on a very regular basis and we might all be shocked at the results....much like how much more three pointers are attempted now than when the 3 pt line was first added.
 
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#22
#22
Maxim #6. "Press the kicking game. Here is where the breaks are made."

I'll choose to go with General Neyland.
 
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#23
#23
What nobody is saying though??

Dudes program has gone 124-22 since 2003 and has won 3 state titles.

I mean, sure it's high school...but still. Gotta wonder if it's had a hand in the success of his program.
 
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#24
#24
doublej said:
Maxim #6. "Press the kicking game. Here is where the breaks are made."

I'll choose to go with General Neyland.
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You also have to consider that he was winning games 10-3 with a bunch of white guys and facing very little downfield passing threat. College football was trench warfare into the 1980s in most places.
 
#25
#25
When they did the stats, I do not think they did the flip side of it though. For example let's say it's 4th and 5 at your 40 and you do not get it, what is chance other team scores? I would not go for it unless I was at 50 or beyond in that situation. Maybe if it was 4th and 2, but certainly not 5 or more yds to go.
 
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