Where Will the Vols Finish on Rivals? #2

#51
#51
Madkins8 said:
I know them (Rivals Rankings) enough to know that the points system changed in 2012 and the totals prior to that were not recalculated. I did spend the time to recalculate 2010-2012 totals, though, and they are noticeably different.

We may have a better chance at 4th (~20% range), but top 3 isn't going to happen.
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Yep, 2012 was the first year that rivals started allocating bonus points for the entire R250 as opposed to simply the R100.

Last year is the only comparable year.

2661 was good for #5
 
#52
#52
85SugarVol said:
Yep, 2012 was the first year that rivals started allocating bonus points for the entire R250 as opposed to simply the R100.

Last year is the only comparable year.

2661 was good for #5
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2013 was the year, and it was more than that. The old system took into account national position ranking and a few other factors. The system was changed so that it was easier to follow.
 
#53
#53
Madkins8 said:
I know them (Rivals Rankings) enough to know that the points system changed in 2012 and the totals prior to that were not recalculated. I did spend the time to recalculate 2010-2012 totals, though, and they are noticeably different.

We may have a better chance at 4th (~20% range), but top 3 isn't going to happen.
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I disagree - I think barring losing someone - we finish 2nd.
 
#54
#54
Since Rivals only counts the top 20 in their class rankings and I think we land one more big fish, I predict 3rd.
 
#55
#55
Fullfillmer said:
I disagree - I think barring losing someone - we finish 2nd.
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LSU will finish with over 3000 points. Alabama and LSU will be far ahead of the rest of the teams.

I just ran a class projection on LSU if they close on the people that are basically considered heavy LSU leans (not including D. Williams) and they finished with 3127 points.

They will finish 2nd, and if Alabama didn't sneak in and pull some great talent out of Louisiana this year LSU's class would be ridiculous.
 
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#56
#56
Please remember rivals only uses your top 20 commits for rank

1.)Alabama - Will most likely remain #1. They are in on a lot of recruits with over 300 point difference.

Rank - Team - Current Commits - Points Behind Tennessee

2.)Tennessee (33)
3.)Miami (27) 333
4.)Texas A & M (18) 387
5.)Florida St.(23) 389
6.)Ohio St. (17) 518
7.)Notre Dame (19) 550
8.)Georgia (16) 588

Most likely as of now teams that have reached 20 recruits will most likley not ad enough points to pass us. That eliminates Miami and Florida St.

Texas A & M 387 points for 2 players. They have to get at least 1 5 star player and 1 player ranked 6.0 in order to pass us. They have interest (according to rivals) from 2 5 star players. Leonard Fournette (233), Tony Brown (212). If A & M gets just Tony Brown (which is very likely) they will be 175 points away. Means that they would only have to land 1 more recruit at 65 or higher then they will pass us. It is very possible for A & M to pass if they get T. Brown

Ohio State They only have to average 172 points for 3 commits to pass us. Which means 3 commits ranked 45 or higher. They are on a lot of guys radar. Very possible to pass us

Notre Dame 550 points. They would have to sign the #1 recruit twice to even have a chance to pass us. Highly Unlikely

Georgia 588 needs to average 147 or more. all of their recruits need to be above 145 in order to reach us. This is very possible.

Also, with the rankings keep in mind I am talking about the minimums that teams need. If they sign someone higher up then their next commit can be a little lower. So hypothetically if A & M flipped Hand they would get 250 points. Well, then they would only lack 137 point so they could sign someone a lot lower than what is mentioned above.

This is not considering other additions that will slightly improve some schools rankings. I think #4 is our most likely rank.
 
#57
#57
Madkins8 said:
I know them (Rivals Rankings) enough to know that the points system changed in 2012 and the totals prior to that were not recalculated. I did spend the time to recalculate 2010-2012 totals, though, and they are noticeably different.

We may have a better chance at 4th (~20% range), but top 3 isn't going to happen.
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Baring any defections - I think we finish second - without going through the formal Rivals analysis and using the 247 crystal ball - Florida and Ohio State could get close and might potentially pass us - but I think we could still finish 2nd. We would have 18 5 or 4 stars out of our 20 that count and I think they only get to 15 or 16. I understand that JC's don't count as much but the worst that I could envision us finishing would be 4th on Rivals and 2nd on Scout.
 
#58
#58
pualsline said:
Please remember rivals only uses your top 20 commits for rank

1.)Alabama - Will most likely remain #1. They are in on a lot of recruits with over 300 point difference.

Rank - Team - Current Commits - Points Behind Tennessee

2.)Tennessee (33)
3.)Miami (27) 333
4.)Texas A & M (18) 387
5.)Florida St.(23) 389
6.)Ohio St. (17) 518
7.)Notre Dame (19) 550
8.)Georgia (16) 588

Most likely as of now teams that have reached 20 recruits will most likley not ad enough points to pass us. That eliminates Miami and Florida St.

Texas A & M 387 points for 2 players. They have to get at least 1 5 star player and 1 player ranked 6.0 in order to pass us. They have interest (according to rivals) from 2 5 star players. Leonard Fournette (233), Tony Brown (212). If A & M gets just Tony Brown (which is very likely) they will be 175 points away. Means that they would only have to land 1 more recruit at 65 or higher then they will pass us. It is very possible for A & M to pass if they get T. Brown

Ohio State They only have to average 172 points for 3 commits to pass us. Which means 3 commits ranked 45 or higher. They are on a lot of guys radar. Very possible to pass us

Notre Dame 550 points. They would have to sign the #1 recruit twice to even have a chance to pass us. Highly Unlikely

Georgia 588 needs to average 147 or more. all of their recruits need to be above 145 in order to reach us. This is very possible.

Also, with the rankings keep in mind I am talking about the minimums that teams need. If they sign someone higher up then their next commit can be a little lower. So hypothetically if A & M flipped Hand they would get 250 points. Well, then they would only lack 137 point so they could sign someone a lot lower than what is mentioned above.

This is not considering other additions that will slightly improve some schools rankings. I think #4 is our most likely rank.
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Georgia looks like they are only in on one 4 star so I doubt they are able to pass us. I agree on Notre Dame not passing us. I think it extremely unlikely that A + M gets either Fournette or Tony Brown. I am not saying it is impossible that they get Brown but 100% of recruiting gurus are predicting he goes to LSU. It will be difficult without those two and/or flipping someone.

Ohio State likely gets a 5 star and a couple of 4 stars so they will be moving up - I am unfamiliar with the Rivals score for those 3 so I don't know what Ohio State ends up with after those 3. I didn't check on LSU earlier but now that I do - they will likely add 5 -6 5 stars so they are going to blow past us.

Now - I see it as Alabama
LSU
Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas A & M
Florida State
Auburn, Notre Dame

I think we finish 3rd to 5th
 
#60
#60
DC Vol said:
Someone isn't hiding the fact that they didn't just about anything OP wrote.
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Yep, I read it all, wasted a few more minutes of my life, which seems to be a recurring theme on some of these VN threads. Oh well, it is what it is.
 
#61
#61
:hi:
orangefreak21 said:
After Saban leaves and Tuscaloosa burns to the ground.. I say first!
Posted via VolNation Mobile
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I just love the fact that the bammers get to sweat this thing out all through Christmas and New Year's. Nice to see them squirming a bit.
 
#62
#62
Reading some of the arguments here, I'm coming around to the idea that it's more likely that 2-3 schools will pass us. Those bonus points are killer, and while we ended up with more depth than any other school, the bonus points will be bigger for the teams landing some of the top 50 recruits.

That said, I still think we'll be top 5. Difficult to imagine 4 schools amassing enough points to pass us, even with the huge bonus points for the top recruits. LSU looks likely to pass us; and maybe 1-2 others could. But I don't see 4 schools passing us.

Regardless, I'm happy with what we've got. Whether we're ranked #2 or #6, we added a ton of talent and depth. On a subjective level, we have the #1 class in terms of filling our own needs.
 
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