DiderotsGhost
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Today, I decided to take a look at the Rivals formula a bit more closely and see where the Vols might finish in the final Rivals recruiting rankings. In a sense, this doesn't matter too much, because we have a great recruiting class one way or another, and our final Rivals ranking is sort of irrelevant. But in another sense, we've sucked for 4 straight seasons, and even if it's meaningless, I want us to get a "small victory" and finish in the top 5 on Rivals.
First off, it should be pointed out that Rivals factors in both quantity and quality more so than any other recruiting service. Their formula only counts the top 20 prospects. This means that one short-cut method to trying to figure out the future Rivals rankings is to look at average recruit ranking, rather than absolute ranking. For instance, LSU is currently ranked #15, but they only have 15 recruits thus far and the average star ranking of 3.67 is #6. So, we can probably assume that LSU will move up a bit closer to #6 (at least top 10) when all is said and done.
The average star ranking generally works pretty well, but has one big issue for this exercise: UT is so far ahead of most schools on quantity, that it's difficult to compare. The "average recruit ranking" tends to work very well when you're comparing a school with 16 recruits to a school with 13 or 18, but what about a school with 34 recruits compared to a school with 17? At that point, it's a less reliable metric.
Tennessee's average star ranking is now at 3.61, which makes it #9 overall. Its points rating is #2 overall. Based simply on this, we would assume UT finishes somewhere between #2 and #9, but where?
For comparison purposes, here are the 10 schools based on average star ranking and # of recruits:
1. Alabama 3.83, 23 recruits
2. Georgia 3.75, 16 recruits
3. Ohio State 3.71, 17 recruits
4. Notre Dame 3.68, 19 recruits
5. Auburn 3.68, 19 recruits
6. LSU 3.67, 15 recruits
7. USC 3.67, 12 recruits
8. Texas A&M 3.63, 19 recruits
9. Tennessee 3.61, 34 recruits
10. Florida 3.61, 18 recruits
While we're ranked #9 on this, you can also see that we have WAY more recruits than everyone else, which means our average star rating might be a bit more distorted due to the huge quantity. Let's factor that out and only look at UT's top 20 recruits. If we do that, Tennessee's average star rating jumps all the way to 4.0! That's higher than everyone other team on the list, and remember, this rating is only distorted for the teams with more than 20 recruits (since only the top 20 count!).
There's only one team on the list that could possibly beat us and that's Alabama. If we only take the top 20 for Alabama, their average star rating is 3.95. This, of course, might jump up a bit more by February, but for now, our average star rating is higher than Bama's on this metric!
While the star ratings are interesting, Rivals uses a slightly different measure for their ranking. It's called the "Rivals rating." The top Rivals rating is 6.1 and corresponds to 5 stars. Rivals ratings between 5.8 - 6.0 correspond to 4 stars. In essence, this is similar to the star rating, but more precise. On average Rivals rating for the top 20 recruits, UT comes in at 5.87, while Alabama is at 5.89. Alabama beats us slightly, but it seems unlikely that any other school would beat us given our massive lead on the star rating.
Rivals points formula is a bit more confusing. Points are allocated based on the Rivals ratings for the top 20 recruits, but they also have bonus points for the top 250 overall recruits. Right now, Alabama has 2,936 points while Tennessee has 2,602. Alabama's significant lead is likely the result of their success with more of the top 250 recruits.
While we trail Alabama, we are quite a bit ahead of every other school. Texas A&M is currently ranked #3 with 2,275 points and 19 recruits. It's possible that another team (A&M, Ohio State, LSU, or Georgia) could make a big run in the next two months and beat us, but it will be difficult.
Based on all of this, it looks like UT is a lock for the top 5. It also appears that the most probable final ranking will be #2 or #3. Not too shabby! Even if another school makes a run, we're still probably no worse than #3 or #4. (LSU has an impressive list of prospects, so they might be the best candidate to pass us.)
As I said in the intro, our final recruiting ranking doesn't matter too much , but it does feel good to know we are on track for what likely seems a top 3 class. And if you were to base rankings based on the needs of each team, I think we're #1.
Go Butch!
First off, it should be pointed out that Rivals factors in both quantity and quality more so than any other recruiting service. Their formula only counts the top 20 prospects. This means that one short-cut method to trying to figure out the future Rivals rankings is to look at average recruit ranking, rather than absolute ranking. For instance, LSU is currently ranked #15, but they only have 15 recruits thus far and the average star ranking of 3.67 is #6. So, we can probably assume that LSU will move up a bit closer to #6 (at least top 10) when all is said and done.
The average star ranking generally works pretty well, but has one big issue for this exercise: UT is so far ahead of most schools on quantity, that it's difficult to compare. The "average recruit ranking" tends to work very well when you're comparing a school with 16 recruits to a school with 13 or 18, but what about a school with 34 recruits compared to a school with 17? At that point, it's a less reliable metric.
Tennessee's average star ranking is now at 3.61, which makes it #9 overall. Its points rating is #2 overall. Based simply on this, we would assume UT finishes somewhere between #2 and #9, but where?
For comparison purposes, here are the 10 schools based on average star ranking and # of recruits:
1. Alabama 3.83, 23 recruits
2. Georgia 3.75, 16 recruits
3. Ohio State 3.71, 17 recruits
4. Notre Dame 3.68, 19 recruits
5. Auburn 3.68, 19 recruits
6. LSU 3.67, 15 recruits
7. USC 3.67, 12 recruits
8. Texas A&M 3.63, 19 recruits
9. Tennessee 3.61, 34 recruits
10. Florida 3.61, 18 recruits
While we're ranked #9 on this, you can also see that we have WAY more recruits than everyone else, which means our average star rating might be a bit more distorted due to the huge quantity. Let's factor that out and only look at UT's top 20 recruits. If we do that, Tennessee's average star rating jumps all the way to 4.0! That's higher than everyone other team on the list, and remember, this rating is only distorted for the teams with more than 20 recruits (since only the top 20 count!).
There's only one team on the list that could possibly beat us and that's Alabama. If we only take the top 20 for Alabama, their average star rating is 3.95. This, of course, might jump up a bit more by February, but for now, our average star rating is higher than Bama's on this metric!
While the star ratings are interesting, Rivals uses a slightly different measure for their ranking. It's called the "Rivals rating." The top Rivals rating is 6.1 and corresponds to 5 stars. Rivals ratings between 5.8 - 6.0 correspond to 4 stars. In essence, this is similar to the star rating, but more precise. On average Rivals rating for the top 20 recruits, UT comes in at 5.87, while Alabama is at 5.89. Alabama beats us slightly, but it seems unlikely that any other school would beat us given our massive lead on the star rating.
Rivals points formula is a bit more confusing. Points are allocated based on the Rivals ratings for the top 20 recruits, but they also have bonus points for the top 250 overall recruits. Right now, Alabama has 2,936 points while Tennessee has 2,602. Alabama's significant lead is likely the result of their success with more of the top 250 recruits.
While we trail Alabama, we are quite a bit ahead of every other school. Texas A&M is currently ranked #3 with 2,275 points and 19 recruits. It's possible that another team (A&M, Ohio State, LSU, or Georgia) could make a big run in the next two months and beat us, but it will be difficult.
Based on all of this, it looks like UT is a lock for the top 5. It also appears that the most probable final ranking will be #2 or #3. Not too shabby! Even if another school makes a run, we're still probably no worse than #3 or #4. (LSU has an impressive list of prospects, so they might be the best candidate to pass us.)
As I said in the intro, our final recruiting ranking doesn't matter too much , but it does feel good to know we are on track for what likely seems a top 3 class. And if you were to base rankings based on the needs of each team, I think we're #1.
Go Butch!
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