WhatifSports.com prediction through week 3

#26
#26
Models are only as good as the data you put into them. It's also hard to model intangibles. Regarding prediction models for Football, I'd say they are no better than an unbiased opinion from the local guy at the bar. At least the guys who came up with the BCS system were on crack. That always helps! Not!
 
#28
#28
rjd970 said:
FLA wins 95% of the time? Hey, that still leaves 5%. So you're saying we have a chance?

On a serious note, no way FLA beats us by 42. It just isn't going to happen. They may win by 2 or 3 TD's, but not 6.
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I thought the same thing too. Then I looked at the Dunkel Ratings and if you go by that if the two teams were to play today Florida would be a 41 point favorite.

I think it is going to be really hard for Florida to score 41 points on UT. I think Harvin missing is going to have a bigger impact then people are thinking.
 
#29
#29
orangetitanfan said:
we will beat Florida! mark my word people
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Yikes... Don't say that. Almost everytime I've seen that it's blown up in the persons face.

"Mark my words... Ohio State beats UF by 30 points"
"Mark my words... Richardson is a UF lock"
"Mark my words..."

Well, you get it.

Although.. UT does have that 5% chance.
 
#31
#31
notaguru2 said:
by those scores, we're UF's WKY? I'm not buying it.
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Statistically that is *almost* correct.

WKU is ranked 119 or 120 and UT is ranked between the 40's and 60's depending on the poll.

UT is ranked between the 40's and 60's and UF is ranked 1.
 
#34
#34
The Florida score will be much closer then this prediction. I think not more then 2 touchdowns and with a little luck and some outrageous defense!!!!!!!!!!!That's why we will play the game. GO VOLS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #1
 
#38
#38
FL is going to be closer than 42 points unless we have a ton of turnovers, etc..

They will only get the ball 9-11 times total and I can't imagine a scenario where we give up 7 out of 9 TD's on their drives.
 
#39
#39
nicksjuzunk said:
I am sure some of you are aware of What if Sports. They simulate every college game 10,000 times and take the composite victories and scores and average them out. It has been pretty accurate when I have checked it in the past. I thought you may be interested to see where they have the Vols after three weeks

Week 1
TN 45 WKU 4 TN wins 95% of the time

Week 2
TN 25 UCLA 9 TN wins 90.7% of the time

Week 3...
TN 7 FL 49 FL wins 95% of the time

Any thoughts on these scores?
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I think Tenn. can hold UF better than that score. Cause UF or anybody don't know how sure Tenn. be with CLK right now. This is a new era for Tenn vols now, so thing change. I know the QB is the same, but remember any thing can happen in collage football season.:rock:
 
#40
#40
VolFanNC09 said:
FL is going to be closer than 42 points unless we have a ton of turnovers, etc..

They will only get the ball 9-11 times total and I can't imagine a scenario where we give up 7 out of 9 TD's on their drives.
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You could see UF implement the hurry up offense by UT.

Also, it's entirely possible that UF scores on specials teams or defense.
 
#43
#43
If WKU scores 3 pts 75% of the games played and 7 pts in the remaining 25%, the average is 4 pts.
 
#44
#44
Well what I dont get is UT made somewhat of a game of it last year and lost 30-6. Thats 23 points, and they should have ATLEAST had 2 FGs :mad:. We improve, UF improves, should see more of the same. Makes sense right? 49-7 doesnt.

Ohhh.... thats right Kiffin opened his mouth... dang it Lane, we would have only lost 33-13 but not now Mr Mouth! :rolleyes:
 
#45
#45
Other_Guy said:
Well what I dont get is UT made somewhat of a game of it last year and lost 30-6. Thats 23 points, and they should have ATLEAST had 2 FGs :mad:. We improve, UF improves, should see more of the same. Makes sense right? 49-7 doesnt.

Ohhh.... thats right Kiffin opened his mouth... dang it Lane, we would have only lost 33-13 but not now Mr Mouth! :rolleyes:
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Different locations as well.
 
#46
#46
Yeah rocks that is true and should be noted. But cmon, getting beat by 40+ isnt impossible, but isnt likely either.
I just think its hilarious that when I suggest UT scoring over 10 points and holding UF to under 40 Im laughed at by Gators.
 
#48
#48
Another thing, if we don't give up the big play and run the ball like everybody expects, neither team will score over 35 points, time of possession will prevent this.

Now if Crompton starts throwing picks and botching hand offs, all bets are off and it could get nasty real quick.
 
#50
#50
Take 14 away from us vs WKU. Our offense will still have many kinks to work out.

Take 14 off the UF score, unless there are 5 pick sixes which is unfortunately plausible.
 
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