What to expect from Kentucky

[Cartervol]

A very tough game is what i expect.

 

[superdave1984]

My favorite ky meme. Even though dude is my cousin

Better than this one?

 

[Other_Guy]

Just fan talk. Doubt that CJP & the Vols are looking past anybody. Too much at stake with possibilities of a strong finish & bowl game.

They have learned their lesson I'm sure. I hope the OP and others have too.

 

[tennesseeduke]

It appears that UK will ride with Lynn Bowden behind center. While he signed to play WR, he did play QB in high school, and because of injuries has been pressed into QB duty.

He has played 3 games and has a 2-1 record, losing to Georgia and beating Ark. and Missou.

While he is a run first QB, he is capable of making all the the throws. His first three games have been deceptive in this regard.
Ark was his first start and the passing game was very limited due to Bowden having a very short time to prepare and learn all the routes and pass options.

Georgia and Missou were both played in monsoon conditions and passing was therefore very limited, not only for Kentucky, but for the opponents as well.

If weather conditions are more favorable when you get to Lexington, expect Stoops to open up the passing game more... not 50/50 pass/run, but more than the last 3 UK games.

UT caught the Cats last year after their deflating loss to UGA which knocked them out of East contention. They were not prepared nor motivated in Knoxville. Don't expect the same letdown this year. They are still fighting for a good bowl.

Also, while Snell was a great power runner, Bowden is extremely fast and elusive. Give him a small window and he can take off on you. He can go wide and he can skirt between tackle and guard if there are a few inches of daylight.

UT is much improved and has more defensive speed than Missou. I still expect to see Bowden break some good yardage plays. You will also see Rose, Rodrigues, and, if healthy, Smoke getting significant carries.

UK also has one of the best punters in college football and is capable of flipping the field from anywhere.

Our FG kickers are mediocre at best. Even medium range kicks are worrisome. Missed 2 extra points last week.

Nothing until after the UAB game!

 

[rocytop2624]

Unless all the posters on here are staff and players, I think ppl are ok in already talking about the UK matchup.

I wonder is it superstition or do they get caught up in the game so much that they think we can effect it?

 

[VFFL@THE BEACH]

I wonder is it superstition or do they get caught up in the game so much that they think we can effect it?

So your saying if I am good all week, take out the trash, feed the dog, do all my homework and brush my teeth the vols will win?

Or, since I have bought a new Tennessee hat then the vols will win?

Or maybe there is some sort of occurrence that is contrive to be "a sign" the vols will win?

This is all stuff we like to tell ourselves to think we have an impact on the game but it doesn't. All it does it help fill the void of our helplessness o actually help Tn win. The only debatable exception is if you personally show up to the game and cheer your arse off.

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

They are off this week, so they will try to get healthy and throw us some wrinkles to their offense.

We must take care of business with UAB first!

 

[RollerVol]

gotta put a spy on Bowden to help contain him on every play...he'll run wild in the middle if we don't...

GO BIG ORANGE...BEAT UAB!

 

[malinoisvol]

They are off this week, so they will try to get healthy and throw us some wrinkles to their offense.

We must take care of business with UAB first!

For instance... the foward pass?

 

[volsrock09]

So your saying if I am good all week, take out the trash, feed the dog, do all my homework and brush my teeth the vols will win?

Or, since I have bought a new Tennessee hat then the vols will win?

Or maybe there is some sort of occurrence that is contrive to be "a sign" the vols will win?

This is all stuff we like to tell ourselves to think we have an impact on the game but it doesn't. All it does it help fill the void of our helplessness o actually help Tn win. The only debatable exception is if you personally show up to the game and cheer your arse off.

My wife used to love football season. I would wake up early on Saturday, turn on Gameday/SEC Nation when it came about and clean the entire house spotless and if the grass needed mowed id do that on Fridays. The last few years have been a different story as I have most definitely not done that lmao. Now that Im back in TN, I try to go to the games as much as I can.

 

[volmanjr]

lets put a pin in this until after UAB

 

[sjt18]

Okay. I'm going to play along.... and preface by saying that UT lost two to begin the season that they had no business losing. The team UK will face would have won both of those games by wide margins. Bad QB play, a very inexperienced DL, some attitude issues to work through, an unsettled OL... all factored into a couple of epic embarrassments. UT is no longer that team regardless of the outcome of the next 4 games.

It appears that UK will ride with Lynn Bowden behind center. While he signed to play WR, he did play QB in high school, and because of injuries has been pressed into QB duty.

He has played 3 games and has a 2-1 record, losing to Georgia and beating Ark. and Missou.

Bowden is doing about the best you could expect and he's still a WR playing QB. UK doesn't have an effective passing game at this point and it doesn't have much if anything to do with weather. Much like when UT puts Jennings at QB... UK loses its best receiver when Bowden plays QB.

Because of this, getting a lead vs UK is key. Obviously loading the box and stopping the run is critical.

While he is a run first QB, he is capable of making all the the throws. His first three games have been deceptive in this regard.
Ark was his first start and the passing game was very limited due to Bowden having a very short time to prepare and learn all the routes and pass options.

I actually respect Bowden and what he's done. But if he could make "all the throws" he would be a QB, not a WR. He can make some throws much like Jennings.

Georgia and Missou were both played in monsoon conditions and passing was therefore very limited, not only for Kentucky, but for the opponents as well.

True. And while I wasn't disappointed with the outcome the Mizzou game would have been very different without the rain.

The current long range forecast indicates the UT-UK game will be dry.

If weather conditions are more favorable when you get to Lexington, expect Stoops to open up the passing game more... not 50/50 pass/run, but more than the last 3 UK games.

The only way they try to pass a lot more is if UT stuffs the run. If that happens... UK is in big trouble. You aren't going to beat anyone throwing the ball with Bowden.

UT caught the Cats last year after their deflating loss to UGA which knocked them out of East contention. They were not prepared nor motivated in Knoxville. Don't expect the same letdown this year. They are still fighting for a good bowl.

Oh. Silly me. I thought it was because UT stuffed UK holding them to 262 yards while rolling up 412 yards.

Would that be a good excuse for Mizzou with them coming off a humiliating loss on a dry field to Vandy?

UT will also be fighting for their bowl life... and a "good bowl". Although I don't think that will determine the outcome for either side.

Also, while Snell was a great power runner, Bowden is extremely fast and elusive. Give him a small window and he can take off on you. He can go wide and he can skirt between tackle and guard if there are a few inches of daylight.

As can Kylin Hill and Deandre Swift... both of whom UT held to their lowest output of the year. They both had a complimentary passing game.

UT is much improved and has more defensive speed than Missou. I still expect to see Bowden break some good yardage plays.

If UT schemes right... there won't be many.

You will also see Rose, Rodrigues, and, if healthy, Smoke getting significant carries.

I've watched you play several times. None of these guys are "scary". They're good backs but stop Bowden and you stop UK.

UK also has one of the best punters in college football and is capable of flipping the field from anywhere.

Yes. You may need that. UT has a couple of very good punters.

Our FG kickers are mediocre at best. Even medium range kicks are worrisome. Missed 2 extra points last week.

You may wish you have a better placekicker.

You didn't mention defense. UK isn't as good as last year. Missing Wilson and Snell on O is pretty big but losing so much production on D had to hurt a little more.... then Daniel has been banged up.

This is a game between two teams still answering questions about themselves.

UT started the year with embarrassing losses largely due to poor QB play. A change was made and though Maurer hasn't stayed healthy the whole group has elevated their play including the 3rd team guy Shrout. UT has outstanding receivers and some good playmakers even behind Jennings and Callaway... when the QB gets them the ball.

UK lost Wilson which was critical. Smith was a disappointment and frankly didn't compliment the run first O that UK has succeeded with. Bowden is a good wildcat QB but he's limited as a passer and his absence limits UK's receiving corps.

Both teams have good, not great, OL's at this point. UT has gotten much better recently. UK has been solid in the wildcat. UK's front 7 misses Allen. UT's front 7 has been hampered by a very inexperienced DL... that has improved significantly over the last 3 weeks. Both secondaries have been good... and bad. That probably benefits UT a little more since the Vols should have 3 healthy passers going into the game.

ST's could matter. I'm not sure KO's are a meaningful stat any more but UK is 2nd while UT is 6th. Both avg less than 2 returns per game with no TD's. UT leads the conference in punt returns with a TD plus two more blocked punt TD's. UK is 11th in punt returns. UT's placekicker is vying for the UT career best %. UT is perfect on PAT's and 15 of 17 on FG's. UK is 6 for 11 in FG's and has missed two out of 22 PAT's.

UK's punter has avg'd longer kicks but the net punting is almost identical.




There is no concrete "transitive" property in football but looking at common opponents doesn't hurt. UK took care of its early OOC opponents. UT didn't. Already discussed. BYU and GSU are better teams than Toledo and E Michigan on the whole. GSU is proving to be a pretty good mid-major team this year at 6-2.

Both teams have played UF early in the season. UT rolled over in an 30-3 loss that ultimately convinced Pruitt to change QB's. UK lost a competitive game 21-29.

Both teams played UGA sinc UF. UT lost 14-42 in a game that was competitive for a half with Maurer making his first start. He was injured and it went downhill from there. UK lost in a mud wrestling contest 21-0 generating only 177 yds of O.

Both teams played MSU. UT stymied their O allowing only 267 yds and only 13 yds to Hill in a 20-10 win. (This O is the closest to UK that UT has faced.) UK gave up over 240 yds on the ground to MSU and over 400 yds total en route to a 28-13 loss that probably wasn't as close as the score indicates.

Both teams played USCe. UT had its best game of the year with 485 yds of offense and two ST's scores while shutting USCe out in the 2nd half. Dominating performance. UK lost 24-7 with only 212 yds of O. USCe ran the ball at will on UK while gaining less than 100 yds vs UT.

UT played Bama as their other West game. The Vols lost 35-13 but were in the game deep into the 2nd half playing Bama closer than anyone else has this year. UK's other West game was a 24-20 win over Arkansas... the worst team in the SEC. UK needed a late 4th qtr TD and a stop of Arkansas at the 15 to secure the win.


I like the matchups for UT. I like the season comparison. I don't expect UK to roll over... I do expect the Vols to win.

 

[Cat fan in tn]

sjt18,
I think you have given a very fair analysis. And yes, if UT shuts down the running game, UK is toast. But I don't think you will be as successful against Bowden in that regard. Tenn will need to limit turnovers and keep the UK defense on the field. Otherwise it will be a very close game with Kentucky having home field advantage.

Also, if Sawyer Smith sees action, UK fans will want to see the Smith who played against UF, not the injured one who couldn't throw at all against MSU and SC.

 

[Orange Alert]

Otherwise it will be a very close game with Kentucky having home field advantage

 

[The Original Fade]

Better than this one?

My goodness. Her poor parents

 

[TennesseeTarheel]

A game determined by special teams and penalties? Oh no!!!!

 

[sjt18]

sjt18,
I think you have given a very fair analysis. And yes, if UT shuts down the running game, UK is toast. But I don't think you will be as successful against Bowden in that regard.

I can't guarantee that. I can just say that Kylin Hill and other runners UT has faced were just as talented if not more so as Bowden. That's not disrespect... just recognition that there are several talented runners in the SEC. UT schemed effectively to stop Hill. He ran roughshod over your D so you know he's no slouch. UT schemed and held Swift to less than 80 yards... about 100 less than UK. Bama has good runners.

My point is not that Bowden has no talent. The point is you act as if UT hasn't played anyone with talent before him. UT has played and stopped better runners.

Tenn will need to limit turnovers and keep the UK defense on the field. Otherwise it will be a very close game with Kentucky having home field advantage.

Most SEC games can be won with that formula... but I don't really agree. UT needs to score points-15 play drive or 2 play drive. They have to pressure UK to go out of character with their offense.

Also, if Sawyer Smith sees action, UK fans will want to see the Smith who played against UF, not the injured one who couldn't throw at all against MSU and SC.

If UT could get the Guarantano every week that they got with Auburn last year and USCe this year... the Vols would be undefeated. That's not how it works.

Excuse me for not being a gracious host... but a lot of your comments have built in excuses in them.