What to expect based on Heupel's time at Mizzou

[volbeast33]

Yes I understand he wasn't the head coach. But I also understand that he was in control of the offense so looking at the offenses performance against SEC competition is fair game. Fact is their offenses did not perform well against SEC teams with winning records. As far as the talent he inherited, in 2 of their first 4 games in his 1st season, that offense put up 61 points and 79 points. Both against lesser competition. I think that shows he quickly got his scheme installed, but against teams with bigger and faster players, those teams were able to defeat that scheme. At UCF they didn't play teams with the size and speed of Florida, Georgia, even South Carolina or Arkansas. And when their offense couldn't perform, it left the defense on the field far too long and so they got gassed and gave up lots of points in lopsided losses. I don't think it's easy enough to just say "if he has a better defense it will work better here." If the offense throws the ball a lot and as a lot of 3-and-outs you're going to put even the best defense in a bad spot running off 20-30 seconds each series.

He took over an offense that averaged 10-13 points per game and had overwhelmingly majority of low rated 3 stars starting besides at the QBs position which was the only player rated 4 star or above..... it seems that he made quite a bit of improvement.

 

[beachvol23]

Yes I understand he wasn't the head coach. But I also understand that he was in control of the offense so looking at the offenses performance against SEC competition is fair game. Fact is their offenses did not perform well against SEC teams with winning records. As far as the talent he inherited, in 2 of their first 4 games in his 1st season, that offense put up 61 points and 79 points. Both against lesser competition. I think that shows he quickly got his scheme installed, but against teams with bigger and faster players, those teams were able to defeat that scheme. At UCF they didn't play teams with the size and speed of Florida, Georgia, even South Carolina or Arkansas. And when their offense couldn't perform, it left the defense on the field far too long and so they got gassed and gave up lots of points in lopsided losses. I don't think it's easy enough to just say "if he has a better defense it will work better here." If the offense throws the ball a lot and as a lot of 3-and-outs you're going to put even the best defense in a bad spot running off 20-30 seconds each series.

He was OC at OU also, so how about running those number too?

 

[Devo182]

What kind of drugs is OP on? With a bottom 2 talented team he took their offense from 13 ppg to 31 ppg in year 1 #1 offense in the SEC in Y2.

Lol

 

[Rooster1]

What kind of drugs is OP on? With a bottom 2 talented team he took their offense from 13 ppg to 31 ppg in year 1 #1 offense in the SEC in Y2.

Lol

People tend to forget the Mizzou offense b4 JH got there (2015) had sunk to an historically low point. Look it up, 14 points in a conference game was considered a breakout day, they averaged 9 pts a game in 8 SEC matchups.

Now, on the other hand, I wouldn’t call the JH year 2 Mizzou offense #1 in the conference either, take away the 140 points scored in 2 games against the sisters of the poor Univ and look at how hey did in conference games only and it paints a diff story. Still JH made a huge improvement in Mizzou offense while he was there, no doubt.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

He took over an offense that averaged 10-13 points per game and had overwhelmingly majority of low rated 3 stars starting besides at the QBs position which was the only player rated 4 star or above..... it seems that he made quite a bit of improvement.

Not really. Take away the stats against FCS and nonP5 programs where they ran up scores against the little sisters of the poor along with their only successful run against SEC defenses during his time there when they had a four game stretch against three teams who were in the process of firing their coaching staffs plus Vandy, and CJH’s offensive production was no better than Josh Henson’s first two seasons at MO. Live in whatever reality you like but that’s the facts jack.

 

[Rooster1]

I feel like talent-wise UT is about where they were when Kiffin came in. Recruiting was not as strong in Fulmers latter years and depending on the portal situation the talent could be ok for 2021. The article makes a correlation between Kiffin and Heupel so if we take that, Kiffin went 7-6 but he beat georgia. Took the game against a great florida team into the 4th quarter, and was a blocked kick away from beating bama. If Heupel can be competitive and win 7 games in his first season that will show promise.

Schedule sets up nicely for 6-7 wins without being an unrealistic fan. The OOC schedule is quite soft, UT will be favored in all of those games. There will be 5 SEC games where UT is slightly favored or a slight underdog (games with a spread of 7 or less), win 2-3 of those and there are your 6-7 wins. That really is not even optimistic, it‘s just what it is. Throw in a low level bowl vs a similar type opponent and 6-7 turns into 7-8 without any stretch of the imagination. The 2021 schedule really is about as soft as it has been in a long while.

 

[volbeast33]

Not really. Take away the stats against FCS and nonP5 programs where they ran up scores against the little sisters of the poor along with their only successful run against SEC defenses during his time there when they had a four game stretch against three teams who were in the process of firing their coaching staffs plus Vandy, and CJH’s offensive production was no better than Josh Henson’s first two seasons at MO. Live in whatever reality you like but that’s the facts jack.

Here is the points scored against like opponents from the year before to Josh heupel’s two seasons at Missouri.
Kentucky 13. 21. 34
SouthCarolina 24 21 13
Florida 3 14. 45
Georgia 6 27. 28
Vandy 3 26 45
Tennessee 8 37 50
Arkansas 3. 28. 48

Besides South Carolina.....that seems like a pretty significant jump to me..... Besides TE and QB which were similarly rated to guys we have now.....every single starter on that team was a very low rated 3* of .84 or less besides one wide receiver who was a 86 rated 3*..... it appears he did a great job improving that offense with the talent he had available.

 

[Orange_Crush]

I see that their teams were at the top of the league in yards per game, total offense and points. But to quote Red Sanders, "winning isn't everything; it's the only thing" and Mizzou didn't have a lot of winning against good teams.

So, you're holding the OC accountable for "just win" (and thus defensive performance), as opposed to... well, offensive production?

 

[Orange_Crush]

Can we expect 'Drew Lock'?

Sure. We give you permission.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

Here is the points scored against like opponents from the year before to Josh heupel’s two seasons at Missouri.
Kentucky 13. 21. 34
SouthCarolina 24 21 13
Florida 3 14. 45
Georgia 6 27. 28
Vandy 3 26 45
Tennessee 8 37 50
Arkansas 3. 28. 48

Besides South Carolina.....that seems like a pretty significant jump to me..... Besides TE and QB which were similarly rated to guys we have now.....every single starter on that team was a very low rated 3* of .84 or less besides one wide receiver who was a 86 rated 3*..... it appears he did a great job improving that offense with the talent he had available.

You obviously do not understand that 2015 was a down year for Missouri's offense. Look at 2014 and 2013.

 

[volbeast33]

You obviously do not understand that 2015 was a down year for Missouri's offense. Look at 2014 and 2013.

What does 2013-2014 have to do with anything..... Missouri didn’t have a single starter from that team playing for Josh Heupel.

 

[rocky top buzz]

So, you're holding the OC accountable for "just win" (and thus defensive performance), as opposed to... well, offensive production?

If the offense goes 3-and-out on 3 passes, burning 15 seconds of clock, is the offense not accountable for putting the defense in a bad spot?

 

[butchna]

Would’ve killed to cover the spread against The Sisters Of The Poor the past few seasons.

 

[butchna]

If the offense goes 3-and-out on 3 passes, burning 15 seconds of clock, is the offense not accountable for putting the defense in a bad spot?

3 and out was our base offense since Dobbs. Different is better.

 

[rocky top buzz]

Just to be clear, I'm "heauping" to be wrong, I hope Josh Heupel does great and UT wins several National Championships with him. But I'm just concerned that we haven't seen him have success against top-tier teams and the only SEC experience he has was as an OC. Look at the UM game against Auburn in 2017. And Auburn ran a similar offense they just had better players. But Auburn scored a lot because either the offense had short drives, or the offense turned over the ball. Doesn't matter if Heupel was the head coach, their offense inefficiency led to short fields and lopsided time of possession and ultimately a lopsided loss. Same thing in the georgia game, mizzou only had the ball for 20:24. That was a 21-24 game late in the 1st half. The Lock throws a pick , gassed defense back on the field gives up a uga touchdown and Heupal's offense disappears until they get a late touchdown when they're trailing 47-21 and the game was basically over. His UM days are most applicable because he didn't play SEC teams at UCF. They did play LSU in a bowl game that LSU won which wasn't totally lopsided. His losses at UCF were generally close but I feel like UCF had better talent than most of their opponents and we know that won't be the case here, at least for a few years.

 

[Orange_Crush]

If the offense goes 3-and-out on 3 passes, burning 15 seconds of clock, is the offense not accountable for putting the defense in a bad spot?

Are you claiming that was the case? You listed the stats that indicate that that wasn't the case, and then basically said that that didn't matter because you were going to judge him based on things that were out of his control.

He was the OC. He was hired to implement a successful offense. He did that. Your criteria to judge him merely on the success of the DC and/or HC was stupid.

 

[majorvol]

Just win baby.

 

[rocky top buzz]

Are you claiming that was the case? You listed the stats that indicate that that wasn't the case, and then basically said that that didn't matter because you were going to judge him based on things that were out of his control.

He was the OC. He was hired to implement a successful offense. He did that. Your criteria to judge him merely on the success of the DC and/or HC was stupid.

His offense did not lead to victories against SEC teams with winning records. I do not consider that a successful offense. Moreover, my prior post detailed how his offenses inefficiencies put their defense in bad spots against better competition.

 

[mizzou waltz]

I was reading an article from AtoZ talking about how with Heupel UT now has an offensive identity similar to what Kiffin brought (What Tennessee will have under Josh Heupel that they haven't had in over a decade), and it got me looking into his time at Mizzou. I do recall getting blasted against Mizzou in 2017 and thinking that they had a great up-and-comer OC who was going to crate fits for UT. I was impressed with his time at Mizzou, but now that I look back, I'm really not.

2016 - This season is much worse than I remembered. They went 4-8. Almost all of their loses were by double digits except georgia, losing 28-27. Their other closest loss was shockingly MTSU who beat them 45-51. My concern here is did he inherit more talent at UT? Normally I would say yes but with the transfer portal who knows.

2017 - Here again he is worse than I recalled, mainly because I recall the 50-17 beat down. They started off going 1-5 but put things together winning their last 6 games including UT and florida. That sounds impressive until you realize that both UT and florida missed bowls that season.

I think what's worse, 2018 Mizzou was a lot better without him. When you look back on his time at Mizzou, am I right that they had 0 wins against SEC teams with winning records? The only thing really impressive to me about his time at Mizzou was their 6 game winning streak but when you dig into the teams they beat, it's not that impressive. I hope I'm wrong about him. I see that their teams were at the top of the league in yards per game, total offense and points. But to quote Red Sanders, "winning isn't everything; it's the only thing" and Mizzou didn't have a lot of winning against good teams.

As a Mizzou fan, I am very happy he is Tennessee's head football coach.