What the Oregon game means, and what it doesn't mean

#1
IPorange

IPorange

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#1
We are all jazzed up about the first big game of the season. Optimism is sky-high with the average casual fan. And why not? Technically, we are undefeated and the future is unwritten.

Most serious college football fans know that the odds are low for Tennessee to pull of the upset, even though anything is indeed possible. At the same time, pulling off the unthinkable tomorrow wouldn't magically make Tennessee an SEC title contender either.

Here's how I see it-


A Tennessee win means:

Some early credibility for Dooley with fans, players, and recruits.

Some much-needed positive energy for the fan base and athletic program.

Momentum for the season, and one win closer to making a bowl.


A Tennessee win DOESN'T mean:

UT will win 10 games.

Dooley is Nick Saban but with better hair.

"We're back."

The Pac 10 is terrible, SEC football is the only kind that matters.


A Tennessee loss means:

We are where we thought we would be in the rebuilding process and within the college football landscape.

We have valuable experience against a tough nationally ranked team going into the SEC schedule.

Not much else.


A Tennessee loss DOESN'T mean:

Dooley will never succeed.

Our season is over.

We can't find an upset somewhere else.



Perhaps the medium of a messageboard exasperates the duality of any fan base, but whatever happens tomorrow there will be a massive over-reaction here by both new/relatively inactive folks who we'll see for a week and then not again for a year or more, and some of the regulars.

Don't be a fool. Whatever happens, the Oregon game is not the season. It's just one OOC game. We don't have anything really to lose here, which is not a familiar position for Tennessee.

That being said, I hope the Vols give 'em hell.
 
#3
#3
Thanks, that's probably the best bourbon-fueled thread or post I've ever made.
 
#5
#5
Very good post, same thing goes for the ducks as well. Believe me I know, I saw the Boise St. game last year. Also us ducks are very worried about Wilcox and Sirmon. Wilcox seems to have our number, and Sirmon comming from UO last year not good.
 
#6
#6
dkfnintn said:
Very good post, same thing goes for the ducks as well. Believe me I know, I saw the Boise St. game last year. Also us ducks are very worried about Wilcox and Sirmon. Wilcox seems to have our number, and Sirmon comming from UO last year not good.
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I disagree, to an extent.

A win over an SEC team, even one picked to finish in the bottom half, gives valuable national credibility to the Ducks that they could cash in if they end up being a 1-loss team contender at the end of the year (if they run the table, obviously they won't need it).

Plus, they have a legitimate path to the national title picture, with decent position. They can't afford to be fudging around losing games to rebuilding teams that will be lucky to make a bowl outside of their own state.

No, The Ducks are in an enviable position of having a LOT to lose. I do agree it won't ruin their season, but if they want to build off of last year and take it to the next level, it starts tomorrow.
 
#8
#8
Here is this Duck's take on the "SEC vs. The World" portion of this game.

Oregon is the defending PAC-10 Champion. We are, for all intents and purposes, the standard bearer for our conference.

The SEC views themselves as the best conference in America. You all certainly have the national title trophies to prove it but, I'd be remiss in my duties as a Pac-10 fan to point out that in the last decade... we are the only big six conference to currently hold a WINNING record against the SEC.

An Oregon loss is an embarrassment for the conference. To have an SEC team that will, in all likelihood, not win their conference or even appear in the title game, beat the defending champs and the team picked to win it all again this year would be a monumental blow to conference pride.

As an Oregon State rival told me this week, "You realize that for the rest of us this isn't about Oregon vs. Tennessee... this is about the Pac-10 vs. the SEC."

An Oregon win doesn't mean we're instantly a national title front runner. It also probably doesn't ruin our season but I think Oregon has a lot more to lose on the field tomorrow then UT...

Just my .02 cents
 
#9
#9
Nightowl said:
Here is this Duck's take on the "SEC vs. The World" portion of this game.

Oregon is the defending PAC-10 Champion. We are, for all intents and purposes, the standard bearer for our conference.

The SEC views themselves as the best conference in America. You all certainly have the national title trophies to prove it but, I'd be remiss in my duties as a Pac-10 fan to point out that in the last decade... we are the only big six conference to currently hold a WINNING record against the SEC.

An Oregon loss is an embarrassment for the conference. To have an SEC team that will, in all likelihood, not win their conference or even appear in the title game, beat the defending champs and the team picked to win it all again this year would be a monumental blow to conference pride.

As an Oregon State rival told me this week, "You realize that for the rest of us this isn't about Oregon vs. Tennessee... this is about the Pac-10 vs. the SEC."

An Oregon win doesn't mean we're instantly a national title front runner. It also probably doesn't ruin our season but I think Oregon has a lot more to lose on the field tomorrow then UT...

Just my .02 cents
Click to expand...

Agreed. What's unfortunate is that this isn't simply a matter of "Pac 10 #1 vs. SEC #8/9" or whatever because it's a road game in which the favored team is traveling 3 time zones over. That IS a possible factor, albeit not necessarily a game-changing one. Neyland Stadium CAN be as big of a factor as Autzen Stadium however. Still, if Oregon is the big dog they hope they are and many nationally think they are, they should be able to get this win. It doesn't have to be 72-0 for the job to be done. And it won't be, either.
 
#10
#10
IPorange said:
Agreed. What's unfortunate is that this isn't simply a matter of "Pac 10 #1 vs. SEC #8/9" or whatever because it's a road game in which the favored team is traveling 3 time zones over. That IS a possible factor, albeit not necessarily a game-changing one. Neyland Stadium CAN be as big of a factor as Autzen Stadium however. Still, if Oregon is the big dog they hope they are and many nationally think they are, they should be able to get this win. It doesn't have to be 72-0 for the job to be done. And it won't be, either.
Click to expand...

No sane Oregon fan could possibly expect a 72-0 win. Hell, I see us winning by around 14 but I'll happily settle for a 1-point win.

We've had some surprise blowouts in big name, big stadium programs in the recent past (*cough* Michigan *cough*) but I just don't think that will be the case tomorrow.

Tennessee may be in a down year, relatively speaking, but you absolutely have to give respect to a program with national title trophies in the trophy case and 100K+ rowdy, orange clad, fans.

Pride and defending a legacy can be a big motivator for any team. Especially when they are under the impression they are playing an "upstart" team.

I'd strongly disagree with that assessment of our program but I do see where UT fans that say that's the case are coming from.
 
#11
#11
Nightowl said:
No sane Oregon fan could possibly expect a 72-0 win. Hell, I see us winning by around 14 but I'll happily settle for a 1-point win.

We've had some surprise blowouts in big name, big stadium programs in the recent past (*cough* Michigan *cough*) but I just don't think that will be the case tomorrow.

Tennessee may be in a down year, relatively speaking, but you absolutely have to give respect to a program with national title trophies in the trophy case and 100K+ rowdy, orange clad, fans.

Pride and defending a legacy can be a big motivator for any team. Especially when they are under the impression they are playing an "upstart" team.

I'd strongly disagree with that assessment of our program but I do see where UT fans that say that's the case are coming from.
Click to expand...

I see Oregon winning two ways:

1. If they get off to a fast start. Tennessee is unlikely to be able to take a QB in his second start and mount a comeback.

2. Tennessee's thin depth catching up to them in the second half, particularly on defense.


I see Tennessee winning one way:

1. Dominate the time of possession through a productive rushing attack, and winning the turnover battle.


Basically, if Tennessee wants a shot they are going to have to play a nearly flawless game in terms of fundamentals. And if that's if they want a SHOT.
 
#12
#12
IPorange said:
I see Oregon winning two ways:

1. If they get off to a fast start. Tennessee is unlikely to be able to take a QB in his second start and mount a comeback.

2. Tennessee's thin depth catching up to them in the second half, particularly on defense.


I see Tennessee winning one way:

1. Dominate the time of possession through a productive rushing attack, and winning the turnover battle.


Basically, if Tennessee wants a shot they are going to have to play a nearly flawless game in terms of fundamentals. And if that's if they want a SHOT.
Click to expand...

I don't see Oregon getting out of the gates fast though I would agree it's important for us to do so in a place like Neyland.

Oregon, under Chip Kelley, btw... is a Second Half/4th Quarter team. We make our money in the closing minutes. The list of examples is endless. The beatdown of USC last year was just 24-17 at half. We stepped on the gas in the second half. Even the Boise State tragedy saw us get SOME productivity going in the second half. Lots of other games saw Oregon rally against, or finish off, their opponents in the second half.

We're very deep on defense. Chip has talked a lot in the pre-season about playing 25-30 guys every game on the Defensive side of the ball. I think this helps us in the "strong second half" phenomena I was talking about... especially when I think Darron Thomas in his second career start might take a few series to adjust.

If I'd make one point to Vols fans, it's this... the dirty, little secret about Oregon Football this year is that we're strongest on the defensive side of the ball. Seriously. I've seen all sorts of talk about our "lightning in a bottle" spread offense but the defense is where we are the deepest and strongest.

Our offense is good, yes, but I expect growing pains with Thomas in a big, hostile stadium against an SEC Defense.

I think we win or lose this game on defense.

Also, I'd disagree with your time of possession comment. Oregon was dead last in the conference last year in time of possession. We always lose the TOP battle but that's just because our offense works FAST.

Here's an excellent example: Last week against UNM we had the ball for just 32 minutes compared to their 28. Yet look at the score. 72 points, 32 first downs. In 32 minutes. Granted, it's UNM but this has always been the case with Oregon football.... we always get killed in the TOP stat column.
 
#13
#13
Maybe instead of TOP, I should say efficiency on offense then.
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#14
#14
That I would agree with. It's impossible to understate the importance of turnovers. Of course, that's almost a cliche
 
#15
#15
I must admit, I'm extremely excited/nervous about this matchup. Our defense has to be fundamentally strong in every aspect of the game tonight, and our offense must secure the ball and score some early points to get the crowd and the team confident in their abilities to win the ball game. I agree completely IP, that if Oregon gets rolling early it is going to deflate the confidence of our defense and completely suck the air right out of the stadium, which in turn will result into a really long night. My hopes are that we have players that haven't had a significant impact on the field in their careers, really step up and elevate their game's to another level not seen from them before. Good luck to all the Volunteers, and I hope this is a good matchup in which both teams go home healthy. Go VOLS!!
 
#16
#16
If the offensive line doesn't step up big, we're brown bread in the water.
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#17
#17
IPorange said:
If the offensive line doesn't step up big, we're brown bread in the water.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...
Hopefully they exert a tremendous amount of effort, and there is some cohesion amongst them. Do you think we will try to use our apparent weakness on the o-line as a tool to set up screens and dump plays to counteract the speed of Oregon's D?
 
#18
#18
tennguyinengland said:
Hopefully they exert a tremendous amount of effort, and there is some cohesion amongst them. Do you think we will try to use our apparent weakness on the o-line as a tool to set up screens and dump plays to counteract the speed of Oregon's D?
Click to expand...

Maybe. Depends how much they trust simms to not make the big mistake.
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#19
#19
And being in england, I hope you appreciated the double meaning of my brown bread in the water post.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#20
#20
IPorange said:
We are all jazzed up about the first big game of the season. Optimism is sky-high with the average casual fan. And why not? Technically, we are undefeated and the future is unwritten.

Most serious college football fans know that the odds are low for Tennessee to pull of the upset, even though anything is indeed possible. At the same time, pulling off the unthinkable tomorrow wouldn't magically make Tennessee an SEC title contender either.

Here's how I see it-


A Tennessee win means:

Some early credibility for Dooley with fans, players, and recruits.

Some much-needed positive energy for the fan base and athletic program.

Momentum for the season, and one win closer to making a bowl.


A Tennessee win DOESN'T mean:

UT will win 10 games.

Dooley is Nick Saban but with better hair.

"We're back."

The Pac 10 is terrible, SEC football is the only kind that matters.


A Tennessee loss means:

We are where we thought we would be in the rebuilding process and within the college football landscape.

We have valuable experience against a tough nationally ranked team going into the SEC schedule.

Not much else.


A Tennessee loss DOESN'T mean:

Dooley will never succeed.

Our season is over.

We can't find an upset somewhere else.



Perhaps the medium of a messageboard exasperates the duality of any fan base, but whatever happens tomorrow there will be a massive over-reaction here by both new/relatively inactive folks who we'll see for a week and then not again for a year or more, and some of the regulars.

Don't be a fool. Whatever happens, the Oregon game is not the season. It's just one OOC game. We don't have anything really to lose here, which is not a familiar position for Tennessee.

That being said, I hope the Vols give 'em hell.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%
 
#21
#21
The one thing I think the Vols have going for them is their inexperience. Hear me out. A lot of these guys are the underdogs that have been hearing all preseason they just aren't good enough to compete with top tier teams. Trust me from personal experience that puts a few extra logs on the fire. With that being said, I think these guys will be able to gain a level of confidence that may make it hard for Oregon to deal with in the second half if they can go out and keep the game close in the first half. I think this is a win win situation for the Vols. We lose, so what it's what everyone in the country expected to happen. We win or keep it close, we show that the potential is there and we are on the road to becoming a legit competitor in a couple seasons.

Not saying that the Vols will win, but in the situation they are in they just became very dangerous people.
 
#22
#22
:rock2:It means much much more to the Oregano Ducklings. If they lose to a nationally unranked and clearly rebuilding team with very little depth at most positions and a team expected to finish no better than 4th or 5th in the Eastern Div of the SEC, those Ducklings will take a significant hit in the poles and in their team morale.

If Tennessee loses, everyone will say that it how it was supposed to be.. An unrated team should lose to a #7 ranked team.

If Tennessee wins, Oregano's hope for a BCS bowl is reduced by 90%.


Oregano has everything to lose and nothing to win.

Tennessee has everything to win and nothing to lose.

I predict a very close game with Tennessee winning in the 4th quarter with a 4th and 11 field goal from the 18 yd. line:

TN Volunteers 34
Oregano Ducklings 31
 
#23
#23
IPorange said:
We are all jazzed up about the first big game of the season. Optimism is sky-high with the average casual fan. And why not? Technically, we are undefeated and the future is unwritten.

Most serious college football fans know that the odds are low for Tennessee to pull of the upset, even though anything is indeed possible. At the same time, pulling off the unthinkable tomorrow wouldn't magically make Tennessee an SEC title contender either.

Here's how I see it-


A Tennessee win means:

Some early credibility for Dooley with fans, players, and recruits.

Some much-needed positive energy for the fan base and athletic program.

Momentum for the season, and one win closer to making a bowl.


A Tennessee win DOESN'T mean:

UT will win 10 games.

Dooley is Nick Saban but with better hair.

"We're back."

The Pac 10 is terrible, SEC football is the only kind that matters.


A Tennessee loss means:

We are where we thought we would be in the rebuilding process and within the college football landscape.

We have valuable experience against a tough nationally ranked team going into the SEC schedule.

Not much else.


A Tennessee loss DOESN'T mean:

Dooley will never succeed.

Our season is over.

We can't find an upset somewhere else.



Perhaps the medium of a messageboard exasperates the duality of any fan base, but whatever happens tomorrow there will be a massive over-reaction here by both new/relatively inactive folks who we'll see for a week and then not again for a year or more, and some of the regulars.

Don't be a fool. Whatever happens, the Oregon game is not the season. It's just one OOC game. We don't have anything really to lose here, which is not a familiar position for Tennessee.

That being said, I hope the Vols give 'em hell.
Click to expand...


Well said but a win also means that we might not have to read garbage from the prepubescent Negavols for one entire week.
 
#25
#25
Nightowl said:
Why? Automatic Qualifier BCS Berths are decided by conference play and conference play only.
Click to expand...

Probably means you don't win your conference. After all we are really down this year and expected to be 8th or 9th in a real football conference.
 
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