ZippyMorocco
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I think realistically you have 2 sure wins in Vandy and Arkansas...IMO 3 losses in UF, Bama, and UGA...and 5 toss up....Too many unknowns, 8 really good veteran football teams and lack of QB talent across the board means that this season is up for grabs I think.
3-1 vs SEC west foes and 5-1 vs the East should put us in the SEC championship game, depending on who the loss is vs the east.
2-2 vs the West and 6-0 vs east would get us there as well.
I think we go 2-2 vs the west and hoping for 5-1 at least vs the east.
7-3 would be a great season, 6-4 ho-him and 5-5 straight puke.
Decade of the Vols starts Saturday!!
I think realistically you have 2 sure wins in Vandy and Arkansas...IMO 3 losses in UF, Bama, and UGA...and 5 toss up....
What we should expect under normal is nothing short of 8 wins....but this year is anything but normal
I only leave Auburn as a toss up because NIX is still young...even tho he played really well. He is still developing....I see lots of people sleeping on KY and Missouri and SC....i honestly if we drop 1 of those ot will start a down spirl and we will be 3 and 7..if that happens then CJP is on the hot seat..especially with a 5th year sr QB and our onlineI just wonder if the contact tracing is going to cause us some major problems. I don’t think all other SEC teams are doing it. Don’t know why we are. But I agree with you. However I see 4 sure losses: UF, Bama, UGA and Auburn.
If this were a normal year Inwould expect 9 wins. But like you said, it’s anything but normal.
I think there are no absolutely sure things this year. Nothing at or near 100% certainty. Too many variables, old and new.I think realistically you have 2 sure wins in Vandy and Arkansas...IMO 3 losses in UF, Bama, and UGA...and 5 toss up....
What we should expect under normal is nothing short of 8 wins....but this year is anything but normal
Spot on, if the ball bounces our way it could be a great season, if bad luck sets in it could easily turn into a .500 year.I think there are no absolutely sure things this year. Nothing at or near 100% certainty. Too many variables, old and new.
But bring it down a bit to the 80% certainty range, and we can start to form some firm conclusions. Here are mine:
80% certainties:
-- 4 wins -- vs Mizzou, vs Kentucky, @ Arky, @ Vandy (3 of the 4 are home games)
-- 1 loss - vs Bama
Then ratchet down once more, to about 60% certainty, and I think we can lock in a couple more results:
-- 1 win -- @ USCe
-- 1 loss -- @ UGa
Finally, the 50/50 games, the ones you can't even push to 60% likelihood. Could all go either way:
-- vs A&M, vs Florida, @ Auburn (2 at home, the other Jeremy has that coach's number over the years)
I was tempted to put the Auburn game in the 60% certainty win line, primarily because of Jeremy and Gus' records against each other...but the contest is at Auburn, so calling it anyone's game.
So that's my rationale for saying 7-3 this year. Technically, that comes out at 6.5 - 3.5, but I'm an optimist so I rounded up. Heh.
Go Vols!
What other then orange optimism makes you see FLA as a 50-50 game? MIssouri is 2-1 against us outscoring us 120-58 with 2 of those games JG at QB.....I think there are no absolutely sure things this year. Nothing at or near 100% certainty. Too many variables, old and new.
But bring it down a bit to the 80% certainty range, and we can start to form some firm conclusions. Here are mine:
80% certainties:
-- 4 wins -- vs Mizzou, vs Kentucky, @ Arky, @ Vandy (3 of the 4 are home games)
-- 1 loss - vs Bama
Then ratchet down once more, to about 60% certainty, and I think we can lock in a couple more results:
-- 1 win -- @ USCe
-- 1 loss -- @ UGa
Finally, the 50/50 games, the ones you can't even push to 60% likelihood. Could all go either way:
-- vs A&M, vs Florida, @ Auburn (2 at home, the other Jeremy has that coach's number over the years)
I was tempted to put the Auburn game in the 60% certainty win line, primarily because of Jeremy and Gus' records against each other...but the contest is at Auburn, so calling it anyone's game.
So that's my rationale for saying 7-3 this year. Technically, that comes out at 6.5 - 3.5, but I'm an optimist so I rounded up. Heh.
Go Vols!
I agree with most of that, but I'd probably swap South Carolina and Kentucky. Think Kentucky is gonna fight us hard this year, and we don't really have that much of a home advantage.I think there are no absolutely sure things this year. Nothing at or near 100% certainty. Too many variables, old and new.
But bring it down a bit to the 80% certainty range, and we can start to form some firm conclusions. Here are mine:
80% certainties:
-- 4 wins -- vs Mizzou, vs Kentucky, @ Arky, @ Vandy (3 of the 4 are home games)
-- 1 loss - vs Bama
Then ratchet down once more, to about 60% certainty, and I think we can lock in a couple more results:
-- 1 win -- @ USCe
-- 1 loss -- @ UGa
Finally, the 50/50 games, the ones you can't even push to 60% likelihood. Could all go either way:
-- vs A&M, vs Florida, @ Auburn (2 at home, the other Jeremy has that coach's number over the years)
I was tempted to put the Auburn game in the 60% certainty win line, primarily because of Jeremy and Gus' records against each other...but the contest is at Auburn, so calling it anyone's game.
So that's my rationale for saying 7-3 this year. Technically, that comes out at 6.5 - 3.5, but I'm an optimist so I rounded up. Heh.
Go Vols!
I got back from Germany in 1985, finishing up my first overseas tour. I remember it, because I got home on November 23rd, the day before my birthday. That day, we beat Kentucky 42-0 or something like that.I agree with most of that, but I'd probably swap South Carolina and Kentucky. Think Kentucky is gonna fight us hard this year, and we don't really have that much of a home advantage.
What other then orange optimism makes you see FLA as a 50-50 game? MIssouri is 2-1 against us outscoring us 120-58 with 2 of those games JG at QB.....