What is the logic of picking an L to Florida?

[08Vol]

Well we are in america...innocent until proven guilty? There are certain times when evidence is overwhelming and it is just a matter of time..

But as a general rule..I personally like to give EVERYONE the benefit of the doubt...even florida players.

Playing football is a privilege, not a right. Players can be suspended or kicked off a team for talking back to the coach. But I guess in that situation you would cry "what about free speech?!?"

 

[46yrvol]

There are so many inconsistencies that it becomes clear that we're all rationalizing. After all nothing we talk about here is a science.

 

[Booker512]

You mean once the season gets here we have a chance to finally beat Florida? And our fans will stop rushing to bend over for them?
Well, we all ready did that, now it just seems awkward.

Here are some facts, since thats what we are supposedly talking about.

Geoff Collins hauled ass after last season. He has fielded some GREAT defenses at Mississippi state and then at Florida.

Now they have Randy Shannon...definitely a downgrade from Collins. Maybe if this was 1999 it wouldnt be...but its not...

They took their mediocre Running backs coach, Tim Skipper, and made him their Linebacker coach. Thats surely an elite coaching move...coupled with a thin LB depth chart, thats a disaster waiting to happen.

Now to their D-backs. Which they are also thin at, then add the fact that their elite D-backs coach Torrian Gray is gone. He left for the NFL and they hired a guy named Corey Bell to replace him. Bell was a CB coach at USF for one month, before that he was a CB coach at FAU for 2 seasons. Before that he was a director of football operations at Miami under Randy Shannon for a few years. Hardly the pedigree of Torrian Gray, who was a great CFB player at VT, three-time all Big-East player, he won 2 Big East championships as a player and was drafted 49th overall in the 2nd round in 1995. Then he coached D-backs for the Chicago bears for a few seasons before coaching D-backs under Bud Moore at VT for 9 seasons. He left to coach D-backs for the Redskins after last year.

The only Defensive coach i see that looks half-ass is Chris Rumph. He was Alabamas D-line coach from 2011-2013. Then went to Texas for 2014 before ending up at Florida when Mcelwain came.

So...They lost their 2 best defensive coaches, along with almost all of their proven elite players. Especially at LB, CB and S. There is no way that defense plays the same as it has the past 5-6 yrs under Dann Quin, DJ Durkin, Geoff Collins.

 

[MikeVol44]

Seeing SECN guys predicting a loss to Florida, Im just not sure why? They not only got over the hump, but Florida looked like a lot more garbage down the stretch than UT and now will play THREE QBs against Michigan. I really see Michigan taking them to the woodshed. Is it just because its at home and they think Dormady/Gman will fold?
Im worried about the Vols and it IS Florida, but putting myself as a neutral guy, I'd still pick the Vols over UF (while probably picking an L to Georgia and LSU).

Michigan probably will beat the snot out of Fla....but what does that have to do with UT beating Fla? Absolutely nothing!

But if you were truly neutral--then NO...you wouldn't pick the Vols over Florida..

Why?

Since 1970--we are 9-24 against the Gators....think about that for a moment....that's horrendous

And only 3 of those 9 wins have been in Gainesville...the last win for our VOLS in Gainesville happened in 2003.

And--even though we've had the superior team in 3 of the last 4 years...and even a 2 TD lead in the 4th QTR in our last appearance in Gainesville....we've only managed to win one of those games...

So...as a neutral prognosticator...Florida appears to be the safe choice to win the game.

Florida's defense does not appear to be as good as in the past, but there's no reason to think our offense will be as productive this year as it was last year....

And--NEUTRALLY--there's no reason to think our defense will perform any better this year than it did last year...We lost 2 great DEs...we are weak at LB....we have the walking wounded returning on the DL...and our DBs couldn't cover a grandma last year...(watch the Mizzou game again--it will make you want to puke)...


However, PERSONALLY--I think maybe we get over the hump down there and win a close game...24-21...

I'd feel differently if I were a Florida fan...would be confident that the Gators would win because, after all,

"You just don't lose to Tennessee."

:salute:

 

[MikeVol44]

Here are some facts, since thats what we are supposedly talking about.

So...They lost their 2 best defensive coaches, along with almost all of their proven elite players. Especially at LB, CB and S. There is no way that defense plays the same as it has the past 5-6 yrs under Dann Quin, DJ Durkin, Geoff Collins.

Absolutely spot on analysis.....

Now...take that same keen eye for details and ask yourself--

"Who the heck is Larry Scott, and what are his credentials as an OC?"

The last time he was an OC was for a High School team.

I'd say that is a wash when comparing coaching credibility and experience at the coordinator position.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Absolutely spot on analysis.....

Now...take that same keen eye for details and ask yourself--

"Who the heck is Larry Scott, and what are his credentials as an OC?"

The last time he was an OC was for a High School team.

I'd say that is a wash when comparing coaching credibility and experience at the coordinator position.

I may be wrong but I think Larry Scotts offense will look like last years on steroids.

 

[KBVol]

No. Go watch the SEC preview show. They had us losing to Kentucky

Only Stinchcomb predicted that. McElroy predicted us to beat them.

 

[MikeVol44]

Only Stinchcomb predicted that. McElroy predicted us to beat them.

Yeah...McElroy had us at 8-4....

Stinchcomb had us losing to Kentucky and Mizzou....

I watched last year's Mizzou game again....

None of our DBs could hang with any receiver Mizzou put on the field...and their QB will be very good...

That #16 RB for Mizzou, Crockett, will be a beast if he is not injured by the time our game comes around.

I hope we are not hit with the injury bug on Defense again...or Stinchcomb's predictions just might ring true. :salute:

 

[MikeVol44]

I may be wrong but I think Larry Scotts offense will look like last years on steroids.

Okay....you do realize that last year's offense was, statistically speaking, one of the best EVER at UT.....

Josh Dobbs contributed just short of 3,800 yards combined in rushing and passing last year...and accounted for 39 TDs...that's almost 66% of offensive production...

Would you care to elaborate on what a UT offense with that production from the QB will look like on steroids? opcorn:

 

[Booker512]

Absolutely spot on analysis.....

Now...take that same keen eye for details and ask yourself--

"Who the heck is Larry Scott, and what are his credentials as an OC?"

The last time he was an OC was for a High School team.

I'd say that is a wash when comparing coaching credibility and experience at the coordinator position.

Because this is Butches offense at the end of the day. He knows the system. The entire reason he was promoted from within was to keep consistency in our offense...
We have a QB that has been in the same system for 2 years...he knows the play book...which also hasn't been changed much.

The overall offensive scheme hasn't changed. All of the players are familiar with it. The QB knows it. Larry Scott knows it.

Why does anyone need to lay out "spot on analysis" in the first place? if you have ran the same exact system for years, you have guys that have been in that system for years, you'll probably be doing about the same stuff you have been doing. Nothing new or flashy to learn. Too easy...

Maybe if Tennessee could keep a consistent system going like this for more than 3-4 years at a time, we could probably win some football games again. Crazy thoughts. I know.

 

[Booker512]

Okay....you do realize that last year's offense was, statistically speaking, one of the best EVER at UT.....

Josh Dobbs contributed just short of 3,800 yards combined in rushing and passing last year...and accounted for 39 TDs...

Would you care to elaborate on what a UT offense with that production from the QB will look like on steroids? opcorn:

Do you not get that the reason Dobbs HAD to run so much was because he couldn't throw intermediate passes?

Long balls he was ok. Not great. But very inconsistent in some games. He was also slow to warm up in games. Dobbs struggled in the 1st half of games last year. But had monster 2nd halfs. Go back and re-watch the games. His nerves were on edge for the first 30 min of a lot of games last year.

Short passes he was good. But if he had to go through a progression, he got happy feet and took off. Dormady knows his routes and knows his checkdowns, and can actually throw the correct ball to them.

Those intermediate, timing routes that really make an offense click, Dobbs couldn't hit them to save his life. Always threw behind receivers or threw way too low, at knee level. Even checkdown passes out to the hashes, he struggled with leading the receiver so the receiver could catch the ball while actually trying to get upfield in a fluid motion. He would rather run, because that was his strength. Timing routes were most definitely Dobbs weakness. Which are the most important routes for an offense, because they actually open up the running lanes.
I'm literally only 20% concerned with QB play. We have a rich mans problem at QB.

I'm more concerned that we practice ball security every week. Every game we lost last year with Alabama being he only exception, we lost turnover margin. It wasn't just Dobbs tossing INTs either. It was Kamara fumbling a couple times. Kelly fumbled a few times. We were horrible at ball security last year.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Okay....you do realize that last year's offense was, statistically speaking, one of the best EVER at UT.....

Josh Dobbs contributed just short of 3,800 yards combined in rushing and passing last year...and accounted for 39 TDs...that's almost 66% of offensive production...

Would you care to elaborate on what a UT offense with that production from the QB will look like on steroids? opcorn:

Everybody always complained about Debords play calling but like you said, the statistics say it was one of the best at UT. Scott has the same playbook and I'm sure has added his spin on it including more TE play.

It's still the zone read and whoever the QB will be still has the option to pull the hand off if the DE is crashing the end and take off. But, we will miss Dobbs 800+ rushing yards. On the flip side, I think our interceptions go down and passing yards go up. Basically washes out. That is if the OL can do their job. Untill I see it, I don't think Dormady has the escapability Dobbs had.

Besides OL, RB would be my only question on our offense. Kamara is hard to replace but I think Kelly and Chandler will give it a real try. Especially if they stay healthy considering Kamara did get banged up some last year.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

This is an interesting discussion, guys, thanks for it. I'm enjoying reading your insights.

Not to derail it, but just a thought: chances are good our offense is going to "feel" a lot different this year, with a lot more passing game and consequently less running (particularly from the QB...the RBs hopefully will get just as many touches as last year, or more).

Anyway, the offense may "feel" very different even if it's largely the same, same scheme with pretty much all the same plays, just a different style of execution by new QBs.

So here's the idle thought: how many VolNation fans do you imagine will believe that Butch and Larry Scott drastically revamped the offense, because of this new feel? How many of us will it fool?

Will be interesting to see.

Sorry to interrupt, and thanks again for the nice conversation.

Go Vols!

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

This is an interesting discussion, guys, thanks for it. I'm enjoying reading your insights.

Not to derail it, but just a thought: chances are good our offense is going to "feel" a lot different this year, with a lot more passing game and consequently less running (particularly from the QB...the RBs hopefully will get just as many touches as last year, or more).

Anyway, the offense may "feel" very different even if it's largely the same, same scheme with pretty much all the same plays, just a different style of execution by new QBs.

So here's the idle thought: how many VolNation fans do you imagine will believe that Butch and Larry Scott drastically revamped the offense, because of this new feel? How many of us will it fool?

Will be interesting to see.

Sorry to interrupt, and thanks again for the nice conversation.

Go Vols!

Yea basically my thought JP and thanks for jumping in. I think the playbook won't look terribly different, just that the plays called (pass plays) will be executed. When this happens you keep your opponent guessing and not stacking the box against us. I love Dobbs but he did have accuracy problems. Which is a big reason I think the play calling, Debord, and the offense looked so vanilla or predictable at times.

 

[KoachKrab127]

To the people who are scoffing at the analysts that picked Mizzou and UK to beat the Vols, what makes you so sure those are ridiculous picks? Have you never watched Butch Jones coach a game? Have you completely forgotten South Carolina and Vandy from last year?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

To the people who are scoffing at the analysts that picked Mizzou and UK to beat the Vols, what makes you so sure those are ridiculous picks? Have you never watched Butch Jones coach a game? Have you completely forgotten South Carolina and Vandy from last year?

Get back to us in 3 months. If we've lost to Mizzou, UK, USCe, or Vandy, we'll talk further. If not, here's an advance payment of the response: suck it.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

To the people who are scoffing at the analysts that picked Mizzou and UK to beat the Vols, what makes you so sure those are ridiculous picks? Have you never watched Butch Jones coach a game? Have you completely forgotten South Carolina and Vandy from last year?

Hello 9 months ago. 2017 man, get on board for these kids or gtfo.

 

[volfannbama]

To the people who are scoffing at the analysts that picked Mizzou and UK to beat the Vols, what makes you so sure those are ridiculous picks? Have you never watched Butch Jones coach a game? Have you completely forgotten South Carolina and Vandy from last year?

Crazy talk, in the last two days ive learned that we are supposed to stop looking in the rear view mirror and not use the past as a good indicator of expectations, the oline doesnt have some look in its eye, the administration isnt interest in winning at a high level but we can ignore that and the offense will be the same but have a different feel....or something.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Crazy talk, in the last two days ive learned that we are supposed to stop looking in the rear view mirror and not use the past as a good indicator of expectations, the oline doesnt have some look in its eye, the administration isnt interest in winning at a high level but we can ignore that and the offense will be the same but have a different feel....or something.

Never let it be said that you're not trying to pay attention.

Comprehension, meh, but you are following along really well, VFnB! :good!:

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Crazy talk, in the last two days ive learned that we are supposed to stop looking in the rear view mirror and not use the past as a good indicator of expectations, the oline doesnt have some look in its eye, the administration isnt interest in winning at a high level but we can ignore that and the offense will be the same but have a different feel....or something.

How can you compare anything to last year considering all the changes?

Ofcourse it could be worse but it could be alot better.

 

[volfannbama]

How can you compare anything to last year considering all the changes?

Ofcourse it could be worse but it could be alot better.

What changes? Losing nearly all your top players, a record setting oc, a 4 year tread of cbj dropping games he shouldnt, etc?

Simple logic actually.

Record setting oc replaced with a brand new oc (which i like by the way but to expect the results of a vet from a rookie is a bit silly)
Lost 80-90 of offensive production. Hopefully a vet o line helps equal that out. But top players will be playing first sec game on the road agaisnt florida, usually not good.
Worst d in history and you lose the most productive players on it. You hire what appears to be two top notch coaches on that side, but they are still working with youngsters.
Never beaten an sec west team, never beaten a will mischamp coached team, horrible record against top 25 teams.

Its not a doom and gloom. I think we go 8-4, if things go our way, be could win 9/10 but i would be suprised if that happened.

 

[MikeVol44]

Because this is Butches offense at the end of the day. He knows the system. The entire reason he was promoted from within was to keep consistency in our offense...
We have a QB that has been in the same system for 2 years...he knows the play book...which also hasn't been changed much.

The overall offensive scheme hasn't changed. All of the players are familiar with it. The QB knows it. Larry Scott knows it.

Why does anyone need to lay out "spot on analysis" in the first place? if you have ran the same exact system for years, you have guys that have been in that system for years, you'll probably be doing about the same stuff you have been doing. Nothing new or flashy to learn. Too easy...

Maybe if Tennessee could keep a consistent system going like this for more than 3-4 years at a time, we could probably win some football games again. Crazy thoughts. I know.

Oh....you mean that CBJ system that is 1-3 against the Gators?

That same system that will go into Gainesville this year after losing the one player who produced 66% of our offensive yardage and TDs?

So...yes! It is crazy to expect this same offensive system with the same HC who has failed to beat some of the worst Fla teams in history--the same system that lost the ONE guy who made it work--to go into the Swamp and win.....

But to heck with the obvious facts....and full speed ahead with your Orange-colored opinion....after all, it is the status quo on this board. :crazy:

And as I said above....Personally, I do expect us to eek out a win down there...for no other reason that I am a VOL FAN.....But I wouldn't wager any money on it...

 

[Power T-Rev]

Never let it be said that you're not trying to pay attention.

Comprehension, meh, but you are following along really well, VFnB! :good!:

You can't say he lacks effort

 

[Behr]

Oh....you mean that CBJ system that is 1-3 against the Gators?

That same system that will go into Gainesville this year after losing the one player who produced 66% of our offensive yardage and TDs?

So...yes! It is crazy to expect this same offensive system with the same HC who has failed to beat some of the worst Fla teams in history--the same system that lost the ONE guy who made it work--to go into the Swamp and win.....

But to heck with the obvious facts....and full speed ahead with your Orange-colored opinion....after all, it is the status quo on this board. :crazy:

And as I said above....Personally, I do expect us to eek out a win down there...for no other reason that I am a VOL FAN.....But I wouldn't wager any money on it...

Okay, so you're crazy?

 

[DaddyChad]

Tennessee is better than Florida but we've been better than them several times and still lost. The game is in Gainesville. If Tennessee is to break the trend a few times by beating them then they'll be picked as the favorite more. Health of both teams could be an issue with both having decent teams to open.