What if we are better?

#126
#126
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
2013 - Year One - Butch inherited a team with a roster that was mostly full of players he did not recruit.
2014- His first full recruiting year.
2017 - Jump to Year Five - those freshman Butch recruits in 2014 will be seniors this Fall.

So, yes, a roster full of solely his recruits in 2017.
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Sadly, how many are left?
 
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#128
#128
Catbone said:
Genuinely curious how people think this years team wins more than last year while replacing starting QB, starting RB, most productive WR in team, and arguably best DE in country
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well, Cat, you know that's what is so good about preseason...really don't know...just hoping...:)

GO BIG ORANGE!
 
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#132
#132
'Boro-vol said:
Butch...like most coaches, is a mercenary. If a school came along and offered him more to coach there, that's what he would do. If you don't believe it, ask Colorado.

Wearing a power-T on his golf shirt does not make him Tennessee. Coaching for us doesn't make him Tennessee....

I don't doubt he loves it here (he has several million reasons to), and is committed to being here....until he isnt.
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I don't entirely agree. I believe you can fall in love with a "new home." And I believe there are some signs that's what happened to Butch when he made the transition to Knoxville. The sourness of our fan base has probably helped erode the "sparkle" a bit, if the folks in contact with him act anything like the folks on these forums. But nonetheless, I think he really became enamoured of Tennessee's history and tradition and community as he got to know it.

That doesn't mean he wouldn't leap at a huge salary increase somewhere else, you're right about that, but I think it does mean he'd not go anywhere else for a lateral move or small bump in pay (in Power 5 head coaching terms, a "small bump" is anything less than half a million).

And there's nowhere on the planet going to offer Butch a raise of that size, short of him winning a national championship as a Volunteer. And if he does that, we'll be offering an equally large salary increase.

No, I think Butch has found a home for life, as long as he does well enough to keep the job, short of going to the NFL for a try at something different.
 
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#133
#133
dcm3w said:
If we are better then we are better. If there's one thing I know and that's football. If you're good in football then you're good. No one knows more about being good at football than me.
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Why, after reading this, do I get the feeling you are the guy who needs toilet paper with instructions?
 
#134
#134
Catbone said:
Genuinely curious how people think this years team wins more than last year while replacing starting QB, starting RB, most productive WR in team, and arguably best DE in country
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From that viewpoint, maybe it makes no sense. But players get replaced every season. It is easier , for some reason, to be optimistic when every last player you mentioned got drafted. For the first time in a long time, the next guys up have seen the guys they are replacing make the league. It's called believing the culture we all hope is being built is really coming to fruition. Foolish? Maybe, but it a little less depressing that those being the usual doom and gloom doubter that calls on everyone to be fired after each and every loss.
 
#136
#136
VFL-82-JP said:
I don't entirely agree. I believe you can fall in love with a "new home." And I believe there are some signs that's what happened to Butch when he made the transition to Knoxville. The sourness of our fan base has probably helped erode the "sparkle" a bit, if the folks in contact with him act anything like the folks on these forums. But nonetheless, I think he really became enamoured of Tennessee's history and tradition and community as he got to know it.

That doesn't mean he wouldn't leap at a huge salary increase somewhere else, you're right about that, but I think it does mean he'd not go anywhere else for a lateral move or small bump in pay (in Power 5 head coaching terms, a "small bump" is anything less than half a million).

And there's nowhere on the planet going to offer Butch a raise of that size, short of him winning a national championship as a Volunteer. And if he does that, we'll be offering an equally large salary increase.

No, I think Butch has found a home for life, as long as he does well enough to keep the job, short of going to the NFL for a try at something different.
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That's all very nice. But you really have no basis for your "feelings". As I said, I believe he (currently) loves it here, and will be here, until he isn't. None of it changes the fact that he, like most coaches with no direct connection to the school, are mercenaries. They are in it for the money....it's their profession. As such, they go where the money, and the opportunity dictates. Those believing he has had some type of orange blood transfusion are likely fooling themselves.

I hope for every success under Butch, though not confident in it. If he stays for the rest of his career as you suggest, that would likely be indicator of good things. Perhaps he'll grow into the job, or perhaps he'll continue with the same 8.5 wpy average he has throughout his career. For many, that'll be good enough. It won't be for the rest of us.
 
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#137
#137
Boro, if Butch averages 8.5 wins per year for the rest of a long career at Tennessee, we'll be one of the best teams in the country, and will probably have won at least a few SEC and possibly national championships in that time.

Between 8 and 9 average over time is where greatness lies. Did that research a few days ago for another one of these threads.
 
#138
#138
VFL-82-JP said:
Boro, if Butch averages 8.5 wins per year for the rest of a long career at Tennessee, we'll be one of the best teams in the country, and will probably have won at least a few SEC and possibly national championships in that time.

Between 8 and 9 average over time is where greatness lies. Did that research a few days ago for another one of these threads.
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I've seen the numbers too, and you're at least partially correct. His career average is 8.3 I think...everywhere he's been. Outside of an outlier 10 wins at Cincy, he's been sub-9 regular season wins.

I know our historical averages, and there are some factors that effect that...like number of regular season games, bowl games, and championship games...that are different now.

What I'm speaking of is the regular season. Winning an average of 8 games on a 12 game schedule will very infrequently get a team in the SEC East a chance for anything better than a second tier bowl game. That is my assertion. Again, not arguing the numbers you researched....I've seen them too. I'm just looking at it through a little different prism.

And in my opinion that's who he is....a solid, average coach. Not a championship level coach. He'll likely never embarrass us, except when he loses a game he shouldn't...but he'll never elevate us past about 9 wins, which is good enough for middle tier in the SEC. Many suggest that's who we are historically, and should be pleased to be there. I'm not one of those.
 
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#139
#139
'Boro-vol said:
...but he'll never elevate us past about 9 wins, which is good enough for middle tier in the SEC. Many suggest that's who we are historically, and should be pleased to be there. I'm not one of those.
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We agree about a great deal...just had to isolate your final point.

I honestly do not believe there are many people who are pleased to have the Vols at anything less than competing for championships. There may be one or two of them, but I haven't seen a single one.

I challenge you or anyone else to find a single Vols fan who says he or she is happy NOT competing for championships.

We're a program that, when things are going well, competes for championships. Period.

~ ~ ~

And yet, that still averages out at between 8 and 9 wins a season if you count it over decades' worth of seasons.

So if Butch retires as the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers in the year 2040 with an average of 8.5 wins per season over that span, we're all ecstatic and the trophy case will be full of something more than Life board games for his efforts.
 
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#140
#140
'Boro-vol said:
I've seen the numbers too, and you're at least partially correct. His career average is 8.3 I think...everywhere he's been. Outside of an outlier 10 wins at Cincy, he's been sub-9 regular season wins.

I know our historical averages, and there are some factors that effect that...like number of regular season games, bowl games, and championship games...that are different now.

What I'm speaking of is the regular season. Winning an average of 8 games on a 12 game schedule will very infrequently get a team in the SEC East a chance for anything better than a second tier bowl game. That is my assertion. Again, not arguing the numbers you researched....I've seen them too. I'm just looking at it through a little different prism.

And in my opinion that's who he is....a solid, average coach. Not a championship level coach. He'll likely never embarrass us, except when he loses a game he shouldn't...but he'll never elevate us past about 9 wins, which is good enough for middle tier in the SEC. Many suggest that's who we are historically, and should be pleased to be there. I'm not one of those.
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You re gonna have highs and lows. Fulmer s avg is not some astronomical number. Championships matter in the duration. If Fulmer averages the same number of wins (his lows are not as low) during his tenure and never wins the SEC or NC and only wins the east a couple of times, his perception changes even with a similar avg.

The avg doesn't tell the whole story.
 
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#141
#141
VFL-82-JP said:
We agree about a great deal...just had to isolate your final point.

I honestly do not believe there are many people who are pleased to have the Vols at anything less than competing for championships. There may be one or two of them, but I haven't seen a single one.

I challenge you or anyone else to find a single Vols fan who says he or she is happy NOT competing for championships.

We're a program that, when things are going well, competes for championships. Period.

~ ~ ~

And yet, that still averages out at between 8 and 9 wins a season if you count it over decades' worth of seasons.

So if Butch retires as the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers in the year 2040 with an average of 8.5 wins per season over that span, we're all ecstatic and the trophy case will be full of something more than Life board games for his efforts.
Click to expand...

Regardless of where we agree or disagree, I appreciate your ability to debate and discuss rationally, without insult or offense. I can do this all day long, and I believe that is what this board is for.

Again, I am aware of our historical average, and the averages of teams that one would consider elite. Butch has a lot of improving to do to have a lifetime 8.5 average, and amass enough championship hardware to make it good enough. There should be ups and downs, the odd 10-11 win championship run, mixed in with the 6-7 dips in performance. Except Butch infrequently does either. 8-9 win season, after 8-9 win season soon won't be good enough. That means you're amassing enough talent to compete and win, but simply not getting it done. I guess I'm saying that not all 8.5 win averages are created equal. If you never mix in some hardware, you're underachieving.

And as for your first point....I've been admonished by many people that we are historically an 8 win team, and that especially after Dooley we should be happy with that.
 
#142
#142
'Boro-vol said:
There should be ups and downs, the odd 10-11 win championship run, mixed in with the 6-7 dips in performance. Except Butch infrequently does either. 8-9 win season, after 8-9 win season soon won't be good enough. That means you're amassing enough talent to compete and win, but simply not getting it done. I guess I'm saying that not all 8.5 win averages are created equal. If you never mix in some hardware, you're underachieving.

And as for your first point....I've been admonished by many people that we are historically an 8 win team, and that especially after Dooley we should be happy with that.
Click to expand...

I absolutely agree with your main point, and was pondering that the other day. You can get to an 8 or 9 win average by always winning 8 or 9, never more, never less. I don't think I've ever seen it, but it could theoretically happen.

Is Butch the exception to the rule? We will have to wait and see. He's had two double-digit win seasons in his career (CMU, '09, 11-2 record ... Cincy, '11, 10-3), with three conference championships to his credit. Of course, none of that was at a Power 5 program. So we're still waiting to see if he can reach that level with the Vols.

I'm hopeful. I'm sure you are, too.

...

As for all those people, did any of them say they prefer not competing for championships, or that they believed we shouldn't?
 
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#143
#143
Historical averages aside, averaging 8 wins a season on UT's current schedule, is not very difficult or impressive for any coach not named Dooley.

8 conference opponents
3 2nd tier or lower OOC opponents
1 P5 OOC oppenent

A coach can average 8 wins by consistently winning the 4 OOC games, and going 4-4 in conference play. Is that really something to be championed?
 
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#144
#144
I think we will be better. Last year was the first time in a long time that Tennessee has had the pressure of expectations on them. They ran off of that until the wheels fell off when Bama came to town. Injuries, Hurd drama, and failure of winning the east brought '16 from an SEC East winning team to a music city bowl winner

The bright side is that a season like that causes great maturation with the team as well as Jones. I believe the "2016 is our year" thing that had been hanging over the teams head since Jones was hired was a bit of a detriment, as it just became expected. Now we have a fresh team who I feel is hungry to get back into the top 10 and prove everyone wrong this season

I like John Kelly at RB, i LOVE (probably) Dormady at QB. I can also say for the first time in the Jones era that I have confidence in our assistant coaches. Rock is gonna get these boys strong and injuries won't be as much as a factor this year.

Just rambling really, but the point is that I like this team a lot, and am extremely excited for this upcoming season, maybe even more than last year as I was never a big believer in Dobbs.
 
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#145
#145
VFL-82-JP said:
I absolutely agree with your main point, and was pondering that the other day. You can get to an 8 or 9 win average by always winning 8 or 9, never more, never less. I don't think I've ever seen it, but it could theoretically happen.

Is Butch the exception to the rule? We will have to wait and see. He's had two double-digit win seasons in his career (CMU, '09, 11-2 record ... Cincy, '11, 10-3), with three conference championships to his credit. Of course, none of that was at a Power 5 program. So we're still waiting to see if he can reach that level with the Vols.

I'm hopeful. I'm sure you are, too.

...

As for all those people, did any of them say they prefer not competing for championships, or that they believed we shouldn't?
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I don't put a lot of stock in the P5 vs lower conference imortance. The game is no different for the coach at any level....just the players. That's why you recruit to the level you compete in. Schemes and strategies are the same....speed, strength, and talent are the variables. I believe that is why Butch's averages are so similar everywhere he's been. He is what he is.

Prefer? No. But they did say we should be happy winning at a level that is commensurate with our historical average. I've been told that we are not traditionally a championship caliber team....and that's ok. I'm sure if pressed, I'll have to decline to find these posts in the interest of time....but they are out there. That seems to be how low Dooley lowered the bar.
 
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#146
#146
'Boro-vol said:
I've seen the numbers too, and you're at least partially correct. His career average is 8.3 I think...everywhere he's been. Outside of an outlier 10 wins at Cincy, he's been sub-9 regular season wins.

I know our historical averages, and there are some factors that effect that...like number of regular season games, bowl games, and championship games...that are different now.

What I'm speaking of is the regular season. Winning an average of 8 games on a 12 game schedule will very infrequently get a team in the SEC East a chance for anything better than a second tier bowl game. That is my assertion. Again, not arguing the numbers you researched....I've seen them too. I'm just looking at it through a little different prism.

And in my opinion that's who he is....a solid, average coach. Not a championship level coach. He'll likely never embarrass us, except when he loses a game he shouldn't...but he'll never elevate us past about 9 wins, which is good enough for middle tier in the SEC. Many suggest that's who we are historically, and should be pleased to be there. I'm not one of those.
Click to expand...

Ok who do you think could do better that's not Saban, Meyer, or Harbaugh? If we were to fire Butch after this season which could be a possibility depending on how the season goes, who do we go after? Don't say Miles cause that would be a terrible hire. If you're complaining about the results we got now with Butch, you better hope our A.D. doesn't hire someone on a similar winning level to Butch cause then, we'd be right back where we started. There's only a handful of "Elite" coaches in the NCAA and they ain't coming here. Choose wisely.
 
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#148
#148
ButchAintOne said:
What if we have a better season this year than the previous ones under Jones? It's a thought I have been rattling around in my head since spring practice. Does it mean new coaches are doing their jobs better than previous? Are new schemes better? Was injuries last season really the downfall of last season? Is it just the byproduct of young players getting p.t. last year? I personally think we will be better. So what does it mean if we are?

P.s. Long time observer, first thread
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It is possible for us to have better results this year without necessarily having a better team. Dobbs, Kamara, Vereen, Malone, Sutton and Barnett are going to be really hard to "replace" all at once.

That being said on Offense we really only have 2 serious questions to answer QB and backup RB. We have enough experience returning for guys to be better as a group. Same goes on Defense If Philips and Kongbo can answer the bell we are fine there. It really comes down to health. If this team can stay healthy they can be as good or better than last years team but staying healthy has been a huge obstacle. One must also look at the fact our competition is also improving. Most of the teams we played last year are better this year so did we improve more than them?
 
#149
#149
My 2 cents:

Before we can realistically expect to win national titles, we first have to start consistently competing for SEC east titles. Last year we were favored and beat some teams we havent beaten in a long time. We fizzled out at the end there but we were definitely more competetive than we have been in recent memory. We need to keep up the momentum and keep following that positive trajectory. Butch has laid the foundation and built this program bascially from scratch and imo will take it to the next level with this years recruiting class. Were looking at a possible top 5 class.
 
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#150
#150
majorvol said:
If we have a strong leader on Defense that could be the difference in 8-11 wins. We need someone to take that role TKJ,Kongbo,Kmac or maybe Tuttle. That's a pretty stout group I'd like to see one of those guys take that on.
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Kirkland Jr. if healthy will be the leader of the Defense!!! Mark my words kid is a natural born leader
 
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