I believe UT can beat Florida, but they’d have to make the QB, either JG or Bailey, as irrelevant as possible. Simple throws, strong run game, control the clock with 8-9 minute drives and hope your defense plays their best game of the year. If you have designs on either UT QB going out and winning the game through the air with sophisticated routes and threading the needle passes, I think UT will get in trouble. While it’s true UF’s defense has been very porous at times this year, they still lead the SEC in sacks.
Florida’s worst performances this year have been on the road; defense couldn’t stop anything at Ole Miss, lost on a last second FG at aTm and screwed around and played lethargic at Vandy. If that continues, UT can make Florida pay.
Eric Gray is good, UT’s run blocking is good (at times), so they should play to those strengths. If UT goes out and tries to become Tyler Bray to Patterson/Hunter all the sudden, it’ll get ugly.
On the flip side, UF’s offense, with Kyle Trask throwing to Kyle Pitts back, and an emerging WR group in general, plus Kadarius Toney and three solid RB’s, I’m not sure UT can do any better than UGa or anyone else this year. Hell, I think UF could spend the whole game throwing 50/50 balls to Pitts mixed in with 7 or 8 touches for Toney, and win a shootout against everyone they play.
But they can always have an off game, which means UT can win it.