What % do you give Tennessee to advance each round?

#1
volfan2024

volfan2024

“Wanna play ball scarecrow “
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#1
To:
2nd round---100%
Sweet 16---- 81%
Elite Eight--- 58%
Final 4------- 50%
Finals-------- 30%
Champs-------15%
 
#2
#2
50 % to final four? Wow, I hope your odds are right.

I will throw some arbitrary numbers up:

2nd round---- 99%
Sweet 16---- 80%
Elite Eight---- 50%
Final 4------- 25%
Finals-------- 10%
Champs------ 9%

Yes, I think if we can somehow make the finals, we will win them. I don't see us LOSING in the finals. But I don't think we are likely to get there either. Does that make sense? Maybe not. But it is my odds and I can do what I want, right?
 
#3
#3
To:
2nd round---99
Sweet 16---- 75
Elite Eight--- 50
Final 4------- 20
Finals-------- 10
Champs-------5
 
#4
#4
IP
I like your optimism, I think the Rigional champ game may favor UNC more than 50% just for the proximity to Chapel Hill
 
#5
#5
I just think in the big stage like that, we are at our best. It is when we are expected to take care of business we flounder. UNC would come in expecting to handle us. I think we have a puncher's chance, just like we did/do against Memphis.

Louisville scares me as much as UNC does. Not a knock on UNC, but it is just that Louisville would be a tough opponent without being as huge of a game.
 
#6
#6
tnjed99 said:
IP
I like your optimism, I think the Rigional champ game may favor UNC more than 50% just for the proximity to Chapel Hill
Click to expand...



Knoxville is just about as close to Charlotte as Chapel Hill.

North Carolina is a big state
 
#7
#7
2nd round - 99%
Sweet 16 - 70%
Elite 8 - 40%
Final 4 - 25%
Title Game - 8%
WIN IT ALL - 5%
 
#9
#9
:p

to:
2nd Round:--- 99.7%
Sweet 16:---- 65%
Elite Eight:----41%
Final 4:-------18%
Finals:--------13%
Champs:------10%

But doesn't this all depend on who we play? I like our chances better against USA than Butler and also Oklahoma/St. Joes than Louisville. But I also like our chances over everyone in this tournament. I give us a 1 in 10 shot to win it all. Go Vols!
 
#10
#10
2nd round: 99.5%
Sweet 16: 80%
Elite Eight: 60%
Final Four: 30%
Finals: 15%
Champs: 10%

I think we should be favored in every game up to Elite Eight. Come on guys - aren't we better than every team up to UNC in our bracket? :rock:
 
#11
#11
I think if we odds weighted each game then properly did the math to the conclusion, we wouldn't like the final number for any team out there.
 
#14
#14
Second round - 99%
Sweet 16 - 80%
Elite 8 - 50%
Final 4 - 33%
Championship game - 15%
Champion - 10%
 
#15
#15
roswellvol said:
2 teams...
1 game...

Sounds like 50% per game to me.
My statistics could be a little rusty though.
Click to expand...
maybe not rusty, just a bit shallow on the analysis.

You are correct in that the potential single game outcomes is a binary function, but you're implying that every team in the tourney has exactly the same odds of winning it. I suspect that is not the case.
 
#17
#17
IPorange said:
2nd round---50%
Sweet 16---- 25%
Elite Eight--- 12.5%
Final 4------- 6.25%
Finals-------- 3.1275%
Champs-------1.55%
Click to expand...

Last I checked this team only plays "one game at a time."

So, I stick with the 50% for every game. Remember, any team can win on any given day.

Not being a smart @$$, but analysis is just that. Games are played on the court. That's why the Hampton's of the world have wins in the Madness.

Also, the leaders of this team almost got upset by a 15 seed two years ago.
 
#18
#18
BigPapaVol said:
maybe not rusty, just a bit shallow on the analysis.

You are correct in that the potential single game outcomes is a binary function, but you're implying that every team in the tourney has exactly the same odds of winning it. I suspect that is not the case.
Click to expand...
George Mason and Villanova might argue that theory.
 
#20
#20
roswellvol said:
Last I checked this team only plays "one game at a time."

So, I stick with the 50% for every game. Remember, any team can win on any given day.

Not being a smart @$$, but analysis is just that. Games are played on the court. That's why the Hampton's of the world have wins in the Madness.

Also, the leaders of this team almost got upset by a 15 seed two years ago.
Click to expand...
then you're saying that every entrant has a 1.5% chance of winning the tournament. I'm saying that is patently incorrect. Coppin St. does not have the same odds of winning this tourney as UNC does.

I understand that the games aren't played on paper, but guys in Vegas make tons of money by odds weighting those games. They make that money often because the 50/50 proposition does not hold true.
 
#21
#21
roswellvol said:
George Mason and Villanova might argue that theory.
Click to expand...
George Mason did not win it. Villanova overcame very long odds. It happens. But a 6 seed wins about as often as you'd expect them to. Ones, twos and threes seem to win more than everyone else. They would heavily support my theory.
 
#23
#23
roswellvol said:
Last I checked this team only plays "one game at a time."

So, I stick with the 50% for every game. Remember, any team can win on any given day.

Not being a smart @$$, but analysis is just that. Games are played on the court. That's why the Hampton's of the world have wins in the Madness.

Also, the leaders of this team almost got upset by a 15 seed two years ago.
Click to expand...


I am not trying to sound smart either, but if you really think every game is 50/50 then I will gladly bet you any amount of money up to what I have in my checking account on our first round game, even odds. I will even be nice enough to let you go for double or nothing in round two at even odds again.

If you want we could even bet on every 1 and 2 seed game in the first round. I will take all the ones and twos and you can have the 15s and 16s. We should come out about even if it is a 50% chance.


Tennessee is listed at -4500 for that game meaning if a person wants to bet on Tenn to win the game with no point spread he would have to bet $4500 to win $100. American is listed at +2600 which would pay $2600 on a $100 bet if they win.

It doesn't look like a coin flip to me or to Vegas.

Vegas would not exist if they went by your theory; they would be broke.

You are right that it is why they play the games. Basically any team can win on any given day, but to say it is a coin flip is absurd.
 
#25
#25
roswellvol said:
Last I checked this team only plays "one game at a time."

So, I stick with the 50% for every game. Remember, any team can win on any given day.

Not being a smart @$$, but analysis is just that. Games are played on the court. That's why the Hampton's of the world have wins in the Madness.

Also, the leaders of this team almost got upset by a 15 seed two years ago.
Click to expand...

Right, but if you think that each game is 50/50, then the odds of us winning ALL the games is 1.55 % or so. That' with each game being 50/50. That's math for ya.
 
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