What are the chances.....

#26
#26
TennesseeFan07 said:
I'll admit that the 35% was too big, but 10-15% is still pretty good out of 300+ teams.
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I agree with you. My guess is that their odds are really somewhere between 5% and 10%. One thing you have to keep in mind in basketball is that there is more luck involved. You can have a thoroughly dominant basketball team go cold from the field on one night in the NCAA tournament and they're sitting at home watching someone else hold the National Championship trophy in the air.
 
#27
#27
can we just enjoy the moment? we just got the news that a potential star player is eligible and you guys want to debate percentage points? jeeeez, times like this I just point to Kool & the Gang, "Celebrate good times....come on!"
 
#28
#28
rexvol said:
can we just enjoy the moment? we just got the news that a potential star player is eligible and you guys want to debate percentage points? jeeeez, times like this I just point to Kool & the Gang, "Celebrate good times....come on!"
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"OH YEAH"
-Kool-Aid Man
 
#29
#29
rexvol said:
can we just enjoy the moment? we just got the news that a potential star player is eligible and you guys want to debate percentage points? jeeeez, times like this I just point to Kool & the Gang, "Celebrate good times....come on!"
Click to expand...

With guys like Vol423, that's basically impossible.
 
#33
#33
Vol423 said:
Right off the top of my head, I'll take UNC, Kansas, Memphis, Georgetown and UCLA. I'm sure there are probably a few others too, but that's a quick 5 for you.
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Yeah Memphis sure proved they were better last year. They're going to be more talented this year, but so are teh Vols.
 
#35
#35
Vol423 said:
Right off the top of my head, I'll take UNC, Kansas, Memphis, Georgetown and UCLA. I'm sure there are probably a few others too, but that's a quick 5 for you.
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Georgetown will not be better now that Jeff Green is gone. And in case you didn't notice, Julian Wright opted for the draft as well. It also doesn't help Kansas's cause after Brandon Rush tore his ACL.
 
#36
#36
rexvol said:
I think it's possible, I mean, we put men on the moon didnt we? so I guess, by definition, anything's possible. I wouldnt bet on it, but hope springs eternal.
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yeah, the "anything's possible" notion def seems to apply here. I'd say the football team has as good a chance as PeeWee Herman has of winning the Republican nomination. :)

By the way, how's it goin' rex? All cool at TC?
 
#37
#37
TennesseeFan07 said:
35% chance of the bball team winning
1.1% chance of the football team winning.
I'll say about 3.7% chance of winning both next year.
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Nice guess, but the calculation is.... so how do you get the 3.7%?

If we assume that winning football and basketball are independent, i.e. good luck in BB does bring Fulmer any advantage in SEC. Then the probabillity to win both BB and FB in the same is 1.1% * 35% = 0.385%, which is less than 1 percent...
 
#38
#38
grivira said:
Nice guess, but the calculation is.... so how do you get the 3.7%?

If we assume that winning football and basketball are independent, i.e. good luck in BB does bring Fulmer any advantage in SEC. Then the probabillity to win both BB and FB in the same is 1.1% * 35% = 0.385%, which is less than 1 percent...
Click to expand...


Geez, quit riding on Tennfan he was just throwing out numbers, and we already got that calculation. Like somebody else already said, quit being a FUNSUCKER and just enjoy the fact that we got a star player that is now eligble for us this year.
 
#40
#40
blamie said:
UT wins the NC for football and basketball this year. We're loaded in basketball....and before anyone laughs at the thought of the football team winning it, ask yourselves.....In the pre-season...Who really thought Florida had a chance in football last year?
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....slightly better than a snowballs's chance in hell.
 
#42
#42
grivira said:
Nice guess, but the calculation is.... so how do you get the 3.7%?

If we assume that winning football and basketball are independent, i.e. good luck in BB does bring Fulmer any advantage in SEC. Then the probabillity to win both BB and FB in the same is 1.1% * 35% = 0.385%, which is less than 1 percent...
Click to expand...


Well, there was several factors involved that I can't really go into detail about because we would be here all night. According to the TF07 theory (Tennessee Fan 07) then the calculations from my brain come out to 3.7%
 
#43
#43
TennesseeFan07 said:
Well, there was several factors involved that I can't really go into detail about because we would be here all night. According to the TF07 theory (Tennessee Fan 07) then the calculations from my brain come out to 3.7%
Click to expand...

Funny, i came out with 7.4%, perhaps you divided something wrong...
 
#44
#44
Interesting thread. Can you say "dog days of summer?" Our BB team will be good, but saying they are anything better than 10 to 1 is a stretch. Football would take a miracle ala '98. I just want to get to Atlanta.
 
#45
#45
:thumbsup: everyone thinks our bball team has such a great chance of winning NC, but it takes so much luck, i don't care how good you are
 
#46
#46
I think our chances are as follows:
Maybe we will, maybe we won't... That's my story and I'm stickin' to it...
 
#47
#47
5% chance of winning the basketball championship. (I am making this up, of course, but a lot has to break your way, both before the tournament to determine your draw, and within the tournament itself.)

4% chance of winning the football championship. (25% chance of winning the east * 50% chance of winnng the SECCG * 65% chance of that being good enough to get us into the BCS title game * 50% chance of winning that game.) And yes, I am just yanking these figures from within my interior.

5% times 4% is not much -- two tenths of one percent. I'm not going to put much money on it happening.

(Just doing this exercise is enough to demonstrate how enormously, one-in-a-lifetime-type fortunate UF has been over the last couple of years. It's better to be both good and lucky.)
 
#48
#48
Chance of winning BB NC=10%

Chance of winning FB NC=2%

Chance of winning Both = .000001%

Chance of being above .500 in FB = 80%

Chance of losing more than 3 games in FB = 65%

Chance of not being attacked by a statistics dork = 1%
 
#50
#50
That's ok. What would the world be without statistics. No betting, no vegas, and one less thread on Vol Nation.
 
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