What are the chances.....

#1
thunder5

thunder5

Cause I like to party
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#1
UT wins the NC for football and basketball this year. We're loaded in basketball....and before anyone laughs at the thought of the football team winning it, ask yourselves.....In the pre-season...Who really thought Florida had a chance in football last year?
 
#2
#2
35% chance of the bball team winning
1.1% chance of the football team winning.
I'll say about 3.7% chance of winning both next year.
 
#3
#3
I've given it considerable thought and I've come to a difficult conclusion - we have 0 chance of winning both.
 
#4
#4
TennesseeFan07 said:
35% chance of the bball team winning
1.1% chance of the football team winning.
I'll say about 3.7% chance of winning both next year.
Click to expand...

I'll buy that...with everything that has to fall into place for the football team to win it....3.7% is definitely fair
 
#5
#5
blamie said:
UT wins the NC for football and basketball this year. We're loaded in basketball....and before anyone laughs at the thought of the football team winning it, ask yourselves.....In the pre-season...Who really thought Florida had a chance in football last year?
Click to expand...

Are you serious?
 
#7
#7
I think it's possible, I mean, we put men on the moon didnt we? so I guess, by definition, anything's possible. I wouldnt bet on it, but hope springs eternal.
 
#8
#8
blamie said:
UT wins the NC for football and basketball this year. We're loaded in basketball....and before anyone laughs at the thought of the football team winning it, ask yourselves.....In the pre-season...Who really thought Florida had a chance in football last year?
Click to expand...


Why not 50/50? We either win it or we don’t. that should add up.
 
#13
#13
Little to none. Not even just because of what we do or don't have on either team. Winning either is hard enough. To do it in the same year.....whew. I don't know how many times it's happened, but I'd guess you could count them on your hand.

I don't follow basketball much, but I think we have a better chance of winning a NC there than football right now.
 
#14
#14
TennesseeFan07 said:
35% chance of the bball team winning
1.1% chance of the football team winning.
I'll say about 3.7% chance of winning both next year.
Click to expand...
That doesnt work at all. How are you going to have a higher percent chance of winning both Football and Basketball that just winning Football? If your saying 1.1 for football and 3.7 for both, someone sucks at math.
 
#17
#17
vols kick balls said:
That doesnt work at all. How are you going to have a higher percent chance of winning both Football and Basketball that just winning Football? If your saying 1.1 for football and 3.7 for both, someone sucks at math.
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I was using the TennesseeFan07 formula. Make up numbers that look reasonable for each sport and then just make up a number that looks good overall. That way no math calculations to give me a headache.
 
#23
#23
TennesseeFan07 said:
I was using the TennesseeFan07 formula. Make up numbers that look reasonable for each sport and then just make up a number that looks good overall. That way no math calculations to give me a headache.
Click to expand...

As I can see that there are no other statisticians in this thread, I'll do the math for you. You're saying that there is a 35% chance of the UT basketball team winning the National Championship (That chance is INSANELY overstated, but we'll ignore that point for purposes of this analysis). You then stated that you give the football team a 1.1% chance of winning the National Championship.

These are two independent events. The probability of 2 independent events both occurring is calculated by multiplying the probability of each of the two independent events occurring. Therefore, using your proposed odds, the probability of UT winning the National Championship in both basketball and football would be (35% * 1.1%) = 0.385%

Using a more realistic probability for the basketball team of 10% would yield a probability of (10% * 1.1%) = 0.11%
 
#24
#24
tvolsfan said:
UT is certainly top 5.
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I'll give UT certain Top 10 status next year. I doubt they'll be in the Top 5. Regardless, even if they were #2 or #3 in the nation, that still wouldn't give them a 35% chance of winning the National Championship.
 
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