War in Ukraine

[DuckInAPen]

Before I respond to the points you made in your previous post, Burhead, I'd like to thank you for your reasonableness and your civility (rare commodities, as you know, in this forum). As previously, I invite your correction of any errors I have made in what I have written below.

This is where I start to disagree. Putin is KGB through and through and hates us. He wants to see us weak, demoralized, and embarrassed on the world stage. As long as he in charge there will never be an real movement on expanding American-Russian relations.

I'm not sure what you mean when you say that "Putin is KGB through and through." He's doubtless a very ruthless man who carries with him the legacy of his formation in that organization, but he's most certainly no longer a communist, and he has supported materially (whether from conviction, political calculation, or some combination of the two) the revival of Christianity in Russia. He may well hate us, but he appears to be a rational and disciplined actor who can be counted on to pursue his country's interests without coming into military conflict with the United States or our allies of long standing, and he certainly has no designs to revive communism in Russia.

Putin has aspirations of rebuilding the Soviet empire if he can and has stated the greatest geopolitical loss was the Soviet Union collapse.

I think one must distinguish his aspiration to reannex the lost territory of the Soviet Union (most of which had previously been the territory of the Russian Empire) from a desire to revive the Soviet state. The latter, as champion par excellence of international socialist revolution, was by its very nature inimical to America and to the free world generally. The new Russia does not seem to aspire to expand her territory beyond her traditional sphere of influence (nor does she seem to have the vitality to do so, even if she so wished).

Ask Georgia, Ukraine, or Moldova how they like Russian meddling?

Well, I do recall a Georgian friend of mine saying that the war with Russia in 2007 was very unpopular among the Georgians and that they widely viewed their president as acting as a puppet of the West. I don't know how representative his opinion is, but he was hardly more sanguine about American meddling in his homeland than about Russian meddling.

In any case, why should American lives be risked or American treasure be expended for the defense of these states? What do such "allies" have to offer us? What past service of theirs obligates us to them? Our alliance with them, moreover, is an unnecessary provocation to Russia (as an alliance of Russia with Mexico or Canada would be to us and as their alliance with Cuba in fact was). Let us wish these peoples well, but it is they who must bear the burden of vindicating their own freedom.

Each of those states have active separatist republics within their territories and Russia is solely responsible for them being allowed to exist. If he could get away with it I do not doubt he would try something in the Baltic's but the reason he hasn't is because they are NATO/EU states.

I of course do not believe that this is a desirable state of affairs, but it is one for which we set the precedent when we sundered Kosovo, the historical heartland of the Serbian people, from Yugoslavia (acting in alliance with Islamist terrorists allied to Osama bin Laden). The various color-coded revolutions we've sponsored on Russia's doorstep haven't helped either.

I don't believe we should be fighting Russians,

I'm very glad to read this, but aggressive military support of the Ukrainian government carries with it the very real risk of allowing the conflict to escalate beyond our ability to control it. The Ukraine (with her capital, Kiev, the very origin of the Russian people) means far more to Russia than it can ever mean to us.

I do support us giving assistance to the Ukrainians who ARE fighting and dying to defend their homeland and Europe from Russian aggression however.

There's a great deal of ambiguity there, however, in what a Ukrainian is and where his allegiance lies. There are quite a lot of Ukrainians, especially in the east, who wish to maintain a close bond with Russia and in whose eyes the ouster of the duly elected Yanukovich (as the result of American meddling) delegitimized the government.

Consider also Russia's reannexation of the Crimea. It was accomplished with fewer deaths than occur in any one of numerous mass-shooting events that take place in our country each year. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and officers defected to Russia, offering no resistance at all. What does that say about the national identity and allegiance of these people?

I'm also dubious of our ability to identify the worse and the better actors abroad. We depose Saddam and open the door to ISIS. We depose Gadaffi and get open-air slave markets. We try to depose Assad (the defender of the Christian community in Syria) and support the cannibal Islamist Abu Sakkar. I don't know what reason we have to believe that our judgment will be much better in the former Soviet Union.

At some point you have to stand up to the bully and punch him in the mouth or he'll keep getting bolder and bolder.

I agree with that, and should Russia strike us or one of our real allies (and I don't actually believe she has any designs to do so), we and our allies will have to strike back decisively and with overwhelming force. So long as Russia is acting within her traditional sphere of influence, however, let others keep her in check, if they are so inclined.

I do think Putin miscalculated on allying with the Chinese. Having a weak economy and shrinking population while having a border with an expansionist China is not good for the future of Russia.

And perhaps therein lies a common interest we can leverage in our effort to contain China, our real adversary.

In any case, let it be for America and for Americans that American blood is shed and that American treasure is expended. We've had two decades of fruitless wars abroad. It's time that we cultivate peace and prosperity and that we prepare ourselves for the real threats to our security and welfare that are emerging.

 

[Gandalf]

I don't think Putin would be on board, he has the most to lose. Surely Putin knows that at some point China will look to move on them?

I’m sure Putin knows that China has a hungry eye toward mineral rich but population empty Siberia but that’s nothing new. But that would be foolish for China attacking strength to strength. Taiwan could be taken quickly tho and then friendlies there that are owned by them would declare to the world that Taiwan was actually happy to reunite with big brother and we would suck it up.

Russia knows that the enemy of my enemy is my friend TODAY. We missed out on the chance to make Putin an alt against China as Trump seemed to be inclined towards. All that Russia hoax made it impossible to work together. A shame since we have more in common with Orthodox Russia than secular Europe now. Putin is smart enough to cloak himself as defender of the church

 

[Gandalf]

Before I respond to the points you made in your previous post, Burhead, I'd like to thank you for your reasonableness and your civility (rare commodities, as you know, in this forum). As previously, I invite your correction of any errors I have made in what I have written below.



I'm not sure what you mean when you say that "Putin is KGB through and through." He's doubtless a very ruthless man who carries with him the legacy of his formation in that organization, but he's most certainly no longer a communist, and he has supported materially (whether from conviction, political calculation, or some combination of the two) the revival of Christianity in Russia. He may well hate us, but he appears to be a rational and disciplined actor who can be counted on to pursue his country's interests without coming into military conflict with the United States or our allies of long standing, and he certainly has no designs to revive communism in Russia.



I think one must distinguish his aspiration to reannex the lost territory of the Soviet Union (most of which had previously been the territory of the Russian Empire) from a desire to revive the Soviet state. The latter, as champion par excellence of international socialist revolution, was by its very nature inimical to America and to the free world generally. The new Russia does not seem to aspire to expand her territory beyond her traditional sphere of influence (nor does she seem to have the vitality to do so, even if she so wished).



Well, I do recall a Georgian friend of mine saying that the war with Russia in 2007 was very unpopular among the Georgians and that they widely viewed their president as acting as a puppet of the West. I don't know how representative his opinion is, but he was hardly more sanguine about American meddling in his homeland than about Russian meddling.

In any case, why should American lives be risked or American treasure be expended for the defense of these states? What do such "allies" have to offer us? What past service of theirs obligates us to them? Our alliance with them, moreover, is an unnecessary provocation to Russia (as an alliance of Russia with Mexico or Canada would be to us and as their alliance with Cuba in fact was). Let us wish these peoples well, but it is they who must bear the burden of vindicating their own freedom.



I of course do not believe that this is a desirable state of affairs, but it is one for which we set the precedent when we sundered Kosovo, the historical heartland of the Serbian people, from Yugoslavia (acting in alliance with Islamist terrorists allied to Osama bin Laden). The various color-coded revolutions we've sponsored on Russia's doorstep haven't helped either.



I'm very glad to read this, but aggressive military support of the Ukrainian government carries with it the very real risk of allowing the conflict to escalate beyond our ability to control it. The Ukraine (with her capital, Kiev, the very origin of the Russian people) means far more to Russia than it can ever mean to us.



There's a great deal of ambiguity there, however, in what a Ukrainian is and where his allegiance lies. There are quite a lot of Ukrainians, especially in the east, who wish to maintain a close bond with Russia and in whose eyes the ouster of the duly elected Yanukovich (as the result of American meddling) delegitimized the government.

Consider also Russia's reannexation of the Crimea. It was accomplished with fewer deaths than occur in any one of numerous mass-shooting events that take place in our country each year. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and officers defected to Russia, offering no resistance at all. What does that say about the national identity and allegiance of these people?

I'm also dubious of our ability to identify the worse and the better actors abroad. We depose Saddam and open the door to ISIS. We depose Gadaffi and get open-air slave markets. We try to depose Assad (the defender of the Christian community in Syria) and support the cannibal Islamist Abu Sakkar. I don't know what reason we have to believe that our judgment will be much better in the former Soviet Union.



I agree with that, and should Russia strike us or one of our real allies (and I don't actually believe she has any designs to do so), we and our allies will have to strike back decisively and with overwhelming force. So long as Russia is acting within her traditional sphere of influence, however, let others keep her in check, if they are so inclined.



And perhaps therein lies a common interest we can leverage in our effort to contain China, our real adversary.

In any case, let it be for America and for Americans that American blood is shed and that American treasure is expended. We've had two decades of fruitless wars abroad. It's time that we cultivate peace and prosperity and that we prepare ourselves for the real threats to our security and welfare that are emerging.

I regret that I have but one like to give this most excellent post.

 

[NurseGoodVol]

No, the thing that has emboldened our adversaries is our incompetent president and his court of jesters that advise him.

I think many of us accept that Biden is not making any of these calls. He is possibly the most transparent front guy ever.

 

[davethevol]

I think many of us accept that Biden is not making any of these calls. He is possibly the most transparent front guy ever.

Dan Bongino has been saying that Obama and Valerie Jarrett are running the show, which means Soros is calling the shots.

 

[Godfatha]

We need another war to fatten the pockets of the MIC.

 

[Gandalf]

We need another war to fatten the pockets of the MIC.

Who would be a good pick? We haven’t heard from Syria in awhile. Come on MSM, let’s get this dog a wagging!

 

[Burhead]

U.S. Warns Europe That Russian Troops May Plan Ukraine Invasion

The U.S. is raising the alarm with European Union allies that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine as tensions flare between Moscow and the bloc over migrants and energy supplies.

With Washington closely monitoring a buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, U.S. officials have briefed EU counterparts on their concerns over a possible military operation, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

The assessments are believed to be based on information the U.S. hasn’t yet shared with European governments, which would have to happen before any decision is made on a collective response, the people said. They’re backed up by publicly-available evidence, according to officials familiar with the administration’s thinking.

Also in the article

"According to one person familiar with the matter, the information shared by the US officials at the recent meetings in Brussels was 'unsettling.'"

 

[hog88]

U.S. Warns Europe That Russian Troops May Plan Ukraine Invasion



Also in the article

There's nothing NATO can do if Russia invades, Putin could bring western Europe to it's knees simply by shutting off the gas and oil.

 

[Burhead]

There's nothing NATO can do if Russia invades, Putin could bring western Europe to it's knees simply by shutting off the gas and oil.

Of course NATO wouldn't do anything over Ukraine, just wanted to post that because it reaffirms my earlier statement about this time it being different. Someone within the IC/DoD is spooked about what they are seeing with the buildup. Last time they did this during the spring the DoD said pretty much nothing and now we've done the following:

1. Sent the CIA Director to call Putin
2. Secretary of State warns of a rehash of 2014
3. Congressional leaders call for troops and weapons to be sent to Ukraine
4. Now US officials are warning European leaders of a potential invasion

The rhetoric is a lot more intense this time.

 

[Burhead]

One more quote from the Bloomberg article for those that don't want to read it:

According to defense-intelligence firm Janes, the recent Russian deployment has been covert, often taking place at night and carried out by elite ground units, in contrast to the fairly open buildup in the spring.

 

[Gandalf]

Of course NATO wouldn't do anything over Ukraine, just wanted to post that because it reaffirms my earlier statement about this time it being different. Someone within the IC/DoD is spooked about what they are seeing with the buildup. Last time they did this during the spring the DoD said pretty much nothing and now we've done the following:

1. Sent the CIA Director to call Putin
2. Secretary of State warns of a rehash of 2014
3. Congressional leaders call for troops and weapons to be sent to Ukraine
4. Now US officials are warning European leaders of a potential invasion

The rhetoric is a lot more intense this time.

Wonder if General Miley will call up his counterpart in Russia this time and tell him not to worry, if Biden tells him to hit Russia, he will give him a heads up first? Hey it was good for China and Trump, amaright?

 

[DuckInAPen]

Divining Putin: What Russia is willing to do (or not) for its own interests – Responsible Statecraft

 

[norrislakevol]

Those two very destructive world wars ended with our Soviet allies in control of the entirety of eastern Europe. Our leaders understood that we couldn't change that fact by direct military force. They wisely pursued a policy of containment abroad and prosperity at home that, allied with the courageous moral resistance of countless brave men and women in eastern Europe, finally toppled the godless Soviet regime.

Today's Russia, however, is not the Soviet Union. She has neither the strength, nor the aspirations, nor the natural hostility to America that her predecessor possessed. Post-Soviet Russia has done us no wrong that we have not in our turn done to her. If we played our cards right, we might even now enlist the Russians as allies in the effort to contain the real communist superpower, China.

President Bush famously said, "We will fight them over there, so that we will not have to face them in the United States of America." You seem to be saying, "We will fight them in the Ukraine, so that we will not have to face them in Latvia." I ask, "Why do we need to fight them at all?"

I'm certain your knowledge of geopolitics far exceeds my own; I welcome correction of anything I've written amiss. That said, our foreign policy experts since the collapse of the Soviet Union have routinely failed us; I, for one, refuse to rush to arms at their latest cry of "wolf."

Yeah the Russians are meddling pricks, but better to use em than kill em. Russia has an economy about the size of Texas. There is no way the could ever dominate the world. China, however.....

 

[LouderVol]

One more quote from the Bloomberg article for those that don't want to read it:

I could see this being another micro expansion. Makes sense if you are using your elite troops. They can move fast and hit hard. But they dont have the numbers for a large occupation.

Keep it small enough where other world leaders are having the conversation of is it worth while to get involved for 20 miles of territory, and only a couple thousand troops? It's a much different conversation if you have 100k+ marching on Kiev.

As hog pointed out if Putin keeps it small the Europeans arent going to question it much with winter coming up.

Putin has perfected the micro attacks and can judge the response before it happens.

 

[wmcovol]

Joe Biden and I have one thing in common.....neither one of us are making any decisions in the Oval Office.

 

[DuckInAPen]

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2...slabels-allies-to-manipulate-and-get-its-way/

 

[DuckInAPen]

https://www.cato.org/commentary/when-did-ukraine-become-important-us-ally

 

[TVOLS]

Belarus Is Laying Tinder for a War. How Will NATO Respond? - Defense One

Team of 10 UK soldiers sent to Poland to assist on Belarus border | Military | The Guardian

 

[Gandalf]

https://www.cato.org/commentary/when-did-ukraine-become-important-us-ally

Im kinda of this opinion as well. Why are we risking American blood and treasure for other countries who dont give us much of anything?

But here's the deal. With a weak President and a congress focused on many things other than projecting American power (many of them even think that is a bad thing) - I think we are going to begin to see the larger powers start to gobble up smaller ones and a lot of small wars break out that were previously contained by America's dominance and commensurate desire to keep international borders static for the sake of trade and ideals.

Now "father" is weak and so many look to how they can improve their own positions, knowing that there is no real policemen on the beat anymore and the law is what you make of it.

 

[Burhead]

Belarus Is Laying Tinder for a War. How Will NATO Respond? - Defense One

Team of 10 UK soldiers sent to Poland to assist on Belarus border | Military | The Guardian

Russia just sent VDV paratroopers to a training ground near the Polish/Belarusian border.

 

[Grand Vol]

Belarus Is Laying Tinder for a War. How Will NATO Respond? - Defense One

Team of 10 UK soldiers sent to Poland to assist on Belarus border | Military | The Guardian

Ten soldiers?

Do they think they are Biden securing the southern border?

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Let me guess...

Those states are home to major plants/factories for the compaines that make up the ever bloated Military Industrial Complex...so those politicians are bought and paid for by lobbyists for those companies. Greed. Greed.Greed.

Who cares if a bunch of 18 to 22yo kids get killed and billions of taxpayer dollars spent as long as politicians and defense contractors can get richer????


END LOBBYING.

MAKE IT ILLEGAL TO BRIBE OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS.

We should NOT allow our .gov to put boots on the ground in ANY undeclared war again by executive action, either. It is unconstitutional.

No boots in Ukraine. They are not a member of NATO.

 

[VolStrom]

Belarus Is Laying Tinder for a War. How Will NATO Respond? - Defense One

Team of 10 UK soldiers sent to Poland to assist on Belarus border | Military | The Guardian

The TN National guard was deployed to Poland just a couple of years ago. Apparently we can't afford any regular army troops to send over there. I'm really sick of being the world's police force.

 

[VolStrom]

Let me guess...

Those states are home to major plants/factories for the compaines that make up the ever bloated Military Industrial Complex...so those politicians are bought and paid for by lobbyists for those companies. Greed. Greed.Greed.

Who cares if a bunch of 18 to 22yo kids get killed and billions of taxpayer dollars spent as long as politicians and defense contractors can get richer????


END LOBBYING.

MAKE IT ILLEGAL TO BRIBE OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS.

We should NOT allow our .gov to put boots on the ground in ANY undeclared war again by executive action, either. It is unconstitutional.

No boots in Ukraine. They are not a member of NATO.

I watched Tucker Carlson eviscerate a top commando in the congressional armed services committee (I think) about why should we support Ukraine and send in troops to protect them, and he had a really hard time answering him.