w/walk on back up kicker dooley HAS to figure

[PowerSweep]

I would be interested to see the REAL stats of coaches on ANY level in that situation....research it
And post the HONEST results of what u find...in the end, you will be just as I said a few mins ago-A DUMBASS....

You need to look at the big picture...PERIOD!!!-frickin dumbass!!!!

Dude...calm down for goodness sakes...just because you came home drunk doesn't mean you have to act like it.

Here is some reading for you:

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 1

 

[PowerSweep]

Now you've gotten into one of my pet peeves.

I never understand hanging it high in the center of the field when a punter can do the exact same thing and use the sideline for extra security. I'd rather see them kick it out of bounds on the 7-10 than try to hit the perfect ball down to the 1 which works about 1 out of 4 tries.

Whaddya know...common ground...risk of a shank maybe reason for it? But that seems dumb...

FWIW a 1st and 10 on the 25, which is the average field position if you get it, is worth about 3.5 points from that link I posted for rage dude above...interesting read.

 

[Volnukem]

No one pays attention to these posts, but here we go.

Think about it this way:

You are trading 15-20 yards, which is a lot when you think about it. Say that you gain 15 yards by punting it rather than going for it on 4th down on average. Assume that the opposing team will start on the 15 if you punt and on the 30 if you go for it.

Had you punted, the offense would need to gain 60 yards to get to the 25 which is field goal range for most teams. Since you elected to go for it, they now get the ball on the 30 yard line or 45 yards from scoring range. By doing so, you have decreased the yardage needed to score by 25%.

What if this happens multiple times in a game? Say you stall out four times in a similar situation. That 15 yards you elected was not worthy of trading for a (slight chance) to score has now turned into 60 yards you have given them.

"This is a game of inches." and every single one of them matter in a close game.

 

[PowerSweep]

No one pays attention to these posts, but here we go.

Think about it this way:

You are trading 15-20 yards, which is a lot when you think about it. Say that you gain 15 yards by punting it rather than going for it on 4th down on average. Assume that the opposing team will start on the 15 if you punt and on the 30 if you go for it.

Had you punted, the offense would need to gain 60 yards to get to the 25 which is field goal range for most teams. Since you elected to go for it, they now get the ball on the 30 yard line or 45 yards from scoring range. By doing so, you have decreased the yardage needed to score by 25%.

What if this happens multiple times in a game? Say you stall out four times in a similar situation. That 15 yards you elected was not worthy of trading for a (slight chance) to score has now turned into 60 yards you have given them.

"This is a game of inches." and every single one of them matter in a close game.

Just a simple question...at any time in the game saturday, when the Gators have the ball, if I asked you, "hey 'nuke'...would you trade giving up 15-20 yards of field position right here for a turnover?"

How quick you think you'd say "hell yeah buddy!"?

There's a reason players celebrate when they get an interception 20 yards downfield rather than bemoaning the lost yardage.

And don't kid yourself...Dooley is taking notes right this moment

 

[dsimplified]

that into his decision making...4th and very long from inside the 20? Sure...let the kid kick. But 4th and 5 from the 26 for example is now a no brainer to go for it. I hope Dooley realizes that the calculus on expected points for determining strategy of going for it vs kick a fg has changed. I am sure he does.

Great story but he's a walk on for a reason.

Coaches kick too many fg's and punt WAY too often vs going f it...took coaches til the 1980's to start kneeling on the ball in victory formation so football strategy not really an area of dynamic change towards what makes statistical sense.

I think the reason he went ahead and named Brodus the starter was to evaluate his range this week in practice. I'm sure he already knows what Brodus's range is and what distances he's comfortable with. We need some kind of consistency in the kicking game. I would love for Palardy to bounce back from this but I don't see that happening.

 

[dsimplified]

One more thing...that Marcincin kid from Penn St. left the team this week. He's a RS freshman kicker. Since our kicking game is so horrible, I wander if CDD would consider him as a transfer. I don't know what are numbers look like so this might not even be possible. But he is eligible to transfer right away because he hasn't played this year.

 

[GFieldVolFan]

I know this is an accepted strategy bu punting on say 4th and 7 from the 38 is really, really bad strategy.

People talk all the time about how big turnovers are and then in exchange for an average of 25 yards you voluntarily give the ball to the other team. Like I said, one day coaches will figure out what stats people have known for a long time...punting usually not smart, but especially so across the 50.

I am new on this board, and this will be my first post. However, I would agree with you if we were talking about the high school level. But, this is sec football.
At the high school level, if its 4th and 7 from the 38, you go for it. Lets say your team throws an incomplete pass and fails to convert. In a scenario in which your defense allows them to drive the ball 27 yards and stops the team at your 35 yard line, an average high school kicker will not make it from there. A slightly above average kicker might, but its worth the risk as opposed to using a high school punter to try and punt it within the five yard line.
At the college level, its different, especially in the sec. Most kickers and punters are anywhere from above average to good. Lets use the same scenario as I did above. It's 4th and 7 from the 38 in the sec, you use your punter to punt the ball, and you stop it at the 2 yard line. The opposing offense drives the ball from the 2 yard line and gains 27 yards to the 29 yard line. They are forced to punt and they have no chance to score any points. Now lets say you don't punt, and you go for it on 4th and 7 from the 38 yard line in the sec. Your team throws an incomplete pass. The opposing offense gains 27 yards and gets the ball to the 35 yard line. They kick the field goal and get 3 points.
The worst thing that can happen from punting from the 38 yard line is a touchback. I would rather get a touchback as opposed to allowing a team a chance to start their drive with the ball on the 38 yard line. It's just smart football. Smart football wins games.

 

[TAF]

Why is it that I think Darr is averaging <35 yards a punt...yet when we'd need him for field position instead of a long FG attempt...he'd BOOM a 50 yarder into the upper deck...??!!

Our kicking/punting game is HORRIBLE & I only HOPE is not a factor in this game...

 

[Tennesseevols311]

PowerSweep, Rage here-LoL....

It seems as tho we should just agree to disagree...but regardless, GO BIG ORANGE!!!! That is at least something we can agree on!!!

 

[Thrasher865]

Yep. He has hit from 51. I've said it before and I will say it again....he does the difficult stuff well and he is terrible at the easier stuff.

It's not that. It's that he has the distance, but no accuracy or consistency. So he's just as likely to hit a 50 yarder as a 30 yarder.

50% from 50 yards out is impressive. 50% from 30 yards is less than impressive.

 

[tim]

This is what happens when kickers get into fights boys and girls...

 

[Thrasher865]

I hope Dooley realizes that the calculus on expected points for determining strategy of going for it vs kick a fg has changed.

Don't worry. He's got his slide rule out and he's prepared to do the calculus....

 

[RichRollin]

I know I stand alone on this and this will be viewed as a negative view on things. But those who know me know I'm honest, I try to give an in-biased opinion even when discussing UT.

Point being... I get the feeling were trying to polish a turd with this kicking situation. JMO. If we're discussing how to handle the FG situation from 30-40 yards, it's not good. Again, JMO. Doesn't mean we're gonna lose, but it's an issue. I do think Brodus is a bit more sound than Palardy. But I can't forget the 27 yarder he shanked in the O/W game.

 

[Burger]

If its 4th and 5 and were within the 40, we better go for it. There's only a small decrease in odds that the other team will score. I have confidence in our o to make it. I have confidence in our defense also. I would love the momentum boost when we make it.