Vols open -6.5 against UK

#27
#27
I think the outcome of this game will be determined by the strength and conditioning of the defense (along with schemes, etc.).

Both teams can score, but which team's defense will continue to stop (or slow down) the other team's offense. The "bend but don't break" mantra may well apply here.

I think the Vols win due to our punishing schedule and our defense's gradual improvement to date. The final 5 min of the 3rd will probably tell us where this will ultimately end.
 
#28
#28
Agree with your assessment. UT's defensive ends will need to keep Kentucky's QB from getting outside when he goes to run or tries to rollout to pass. I hope their QB has the great displeasure of having to pick his butt off of the UT turf many times.
 
#29
#29
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#30
#30
17Vols said:
The line moving has nothing to do with who's gong to win. It's all based on public opinion(money).
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Here is how I view it: Initially all that matters is who is favored, as generally the favored team wins north of 70% of the time (my smallish sample says 71%, but some more comprehensive studies suggest that is closer to 80%). Vegas handicappers are really good at their job.
 
#31
#31
daj2576 said:
Here is how I view it: Initially all that matters is who is favored, as generally the favored team wins north of 70% of the time (my smallish sample says 71%, but some more comprehensive studies suggest that is closer to 80%). Vegas handicappers are really good at their job.
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Yes they are and they know the general public loves to bet faves. Faves win more but cover muchless.
 
#32
#32
Don't care. Just win. This will be my girls first experience of Neyland in the evening/night time and I need it be a positive one. Go Vols
 
#34
#34
vavolunteer said:
I must say I disagree that UK's stock is plummeting. They did finally get into the meat of their schedule and we now see a truer picture of where their team is at. But really, Vegas has this almost as a push. If you give 2 to the home team for home field advantage, Vegas is basically saying we win by less than a TD.

Don't get me wrong, I bleed orange, and I believe we will win. But, this could be a very hard fought game. They are one win from going to a bowl. You know Stoops is beating that into their heads. They'll be fighting tooth and nail to get that last win. Beating us in Neyland would only make it sweeter for them.

The truth then is the truth now, the biggest game of the year is the next one.
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Basically if you stop their QB Towles, you stop Ky. I think we can do that, but we have to be up for this game, as they have the ability to win it. The D has to get back closer to where they were earlier in the season, and good production from the O. Maybe AJ needs to key on the QB. GBO.
 
#35
#35
HuntlandVolinColo said:
If our Defense reemerges, we will stomp a mudhole in their arse. If it doesn't we win a relatively close shootout.

KY's slide is primarily due to SEC competition and them being 0-4 on the road.
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Agree. Defense needs to step up. Playing good offense of late has opened our defense up to looking average. Our season is indeed in need of good defense play Espically getting after ther QB.
 
#36
#36
daj2576 said:
Here is how I view it: Initially all that matters is who is favored, as generally the favored team wins north of 70% of the time (my smallish sample says 71%, but some more comprehensive studies suggest that is closer to 80%). Vegas handicappers are really good at their job.
Click to expand...

That stat is meaningless. A lot of "favorites" are like 27 point favorite Bama over an FCS team. They skew the percentage.

But Vegas does pull off some mind-numbingly accurate lines a lot of the time.
 
#38
#38
I've been watching Massey Ratings all season and they have done a pretty good job on their game predictions. They currently have the Vols as a 10 pt favorite 34-24.

Massey Ratings
 
#39
#39
We beat sc n now we r unstoppable..lol

I always think kent is a win just like candy..however this staff has choked against candy n fla at home so who knows which tn team shows up..

Half of me says blowout n half says kent scores more than we like n come down to who has the ball last.

Oh screw it vols by 20...
 
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#40
#40
92volalum said:
We beat sc n now we r unstoppable..lol
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Not really. UT is just getting to the portion of the schedule where they clearly have more talent than their opponents... and when the level of talent of the opponent drops off significantly from what it was before.

Kind of like working out with 250 lbs then going to 150 lbs... the resistance is noticeably different.

These last 3 opponents are FAR less talented than the first 6 Power 5 opponents UT faced. As tough as that front loaded schedule was, UT should be very prepared for anything UK, MU, or VU can throw at them.
 
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#41
#41
I think the line will keep going up. Our stock is rising and UK's is plummeting.[/QUOTE]

Don't care what the final score is. " Just Do It"
:rock::rock:
 
#44
#44
BearcatVol said:
I've been watching Massey Ratings all season and they have done a pretty good job on their game predictions. They currently have the Vols as a 10 pt favorite 34-24.

Massey Ratings
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Kudos to them. That was my predicted outcome on the ESPN conversation to the game. I think the KY fans that have them beating us by 5 or more, (and there are quite a few on the boards), haven't taken in account of Dobbs. Most are saying that (UT's offense has sucked all year). Those are the ones who are going to be drinking heavily by half time.
 
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#45
#45
sjt18 said:
Not really. UT is just getting to the portion of the schedule where they clearly have more talent than their opponents... and when the level of talent of the opponent drops off significantly from what it was before.

Kind of like working out with 250 lbs then going to 150 lbs... the resistance is noticeably different.

These last 3 opponents are FAR less talented than the first 6 Power 5 opponents UT faced. As tough as that front loaded schedule was, UT should be very prepared for anything UK, MU, or VU can throw at them.
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Oh I agree 100% but until we show it on the field I still don't know what to expect from this team..

Win the last 3 n I think good things could happen n a bowl..
 
#47
#47
VolsnRavens said:
Kudos to them. That was my predicted outcome on the ESPN conversation to the game. I think the KY fans that have them beating us by 5 or more, (and there are quite a few on the boards), haven't taken in account of Dobbs. Most are saying that (UT's offense has sucked all year). Those are the ones who are going to be drinking heavily by half time.
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haha exactly. hell, dobbs ran/passed on them last yr too. Most of the current defenders for UK were on the field in that game
 
#48
#48
vavolunteer said:
I must say I disagree that UK's stock is plummeting. They did finally get into the meat of their schedule and we now see a truer picture of where their team is at. But really, Vegas has this almost as a push. If you give 2 to the home team for home field advantage, Vegas is basically saying we win by less than a TD.

Don't get me wrong, I bleed orange, and I believe we will win. But, this could be a very hard fought game. They are one win from going to a bowl. You know Stoops is beating that into their heads. They'll be fighting tooth and nail to get that last win. Beating us in Neyland would only make it sweeter for them.


The truth then is the truth now, the biggest game of the year is the next one.
Click to expand...

Dobbs & Hurd will bring their A-Game, and defense steps up BIGTIME for a big orange victory at shields & Watkins field!
 
#50
#50
jasonvol18 said:
Yes they are and they know the general public loves to bet faves. Faves win more but cover muchless.
Click to expand...

If I recall correctly, the favorites actually cover less than 50% of the time. If true, this almost says that a gambler should just bet the dog, especially a home dog, which actually covers over 60% of the time.
 
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