Vols Guaranteed a Spot?

#51
#51
The question is not getting in, beating Vandy does that. The question is what scenario gives us a home game, and I think the most viable option is A&M beating Texas then losing the SECCG. It's possible USC could ambush ND but not likely.
 
#52
#52
Vfl2407 said:
The loser of both the ACC and BIG12 conference championship games will be screaming that they should be in. Especially an 11-2 Miami.
The best thing that could happen to all conferences is for Notre Dame to lose to USC.
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Well they can scream all they want, but the only potential loser in any of those games that will draw eyeballs in Colorado, and at 4 losses they’d have no argument.
 
#53
#53
TheOrange&White said:
I asked this question in another thread, but wanted to get some more insight. I was trying to see if there was a way we still got left out of the playoffs. It seems like no, but I’m not an expert. Here are the scenarios I see (this is assuming we beat Vandy):

1) Texas beats A&M
—knocks out A&M
—leaves us 3rd in the SEC and top 10 in CFP
—even if they take both TX and GA, we’re in the playoffs

2) A&M beats Texas
—getting beat by the #15 team (lower now after Auburn loss) would drop Texas below us in the CFP rankings
—if GA wins, A&M would most likely be out even though they participated in the SEC champ game due to 4 losses; this would leave GA, Vols, and Texas in
—if A&M won, the committee would still prob put GA in even with 3 losses because they’re GA and they at least played in the championship game and they’d put A&M in as a conf. champ; we would still get in b/c we’re ahead of Texas

Does this sound right? Please let me know your thoughts. I’m just hoping that if we take care of business in Nashville, there’s not a way the committee can screw us. GB🍊
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If Texas loses to A&M, do they still go to SECCG?
 
#56
#56
JMSqb11 said:
Wrong... Texas simply would not have the resume at 10-2 with A&M winning the SEC Title Game and stealing a playoff spot
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Texas would have the exact same resume we have, if you swap out the win over Bama for a win over Arkansas. With only 3 teams with 2 or fewer losses in the SEC, any 2 loss team from the SEC is getting in. They aren’t falling 10 spots for losing at A&M.
 
#58
#58
DeepSpringsVol said:
I agree except...... What if we something terrible happens and a catastrophic injury happens. I feel beating Vandy should be enough but last years committee at least gives room for doubt to pull the plug on a team if a QB1 goes down.
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Worry wart huh? Relax and enjoy this great season. They are far too rare to spend worrying over things out of our control. Also, Nico going down (you should bite your tongue thinking about it) isn’t the same as Travis going down for FSU. They had a massive drop off going to the backup. We have some drop off but it’s not as extreme and there isn’t someone waiting in the wings to bump us as long as we win. Finally, there is no precedent for a 12-team playoff. Just enjoy the ride! Beat Vandy and we are 100% in as we are currently one of only 3 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses.
 
#60
#60
JMSqb11 said:
Wrong... Texas simply would not have the resume at 10-2 with A&M winning the SEC Title Game and stealing a playoff spot
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Nah, they’d still get in with a loss to A&M and A&M winning a spot but they’d be behind us. I think the SEC would get 4 in if that were to happen, which it won’t. If ut (that’s the Texas version while we are UT) chokes, UGA won’t.
 
#61
#61
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Texas would have the exact same resume we have, if you swap out the win over Bama for a win over Arkansas. With only 3 teams with 2 or fewer losses in the SEC, any 2 loss team from the SEC is getting in. They aren’t falling 10 spots for losing at A&M.
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Texas is not getting in if two things happen: They are 10-2 and A&M wins the SEC....
 
#62
#62
JMSqb11 said:
Texas is not getting in if two things happen: They are 10-2 and A&M wins the SEC....
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Yes they are. They aren’t leaving out a 2 loss SEC team at this stage. That’s why we are so confident that we get in with a win over Vandy. If A&M goes on to win the SEC, then we will get 4 SEC teams in. Texas is as good as in right now and probably the surest bet in the SEC to make it in. They aren’t dropping 10 spots for losing to a good team.
 
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#63
#63
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Yes they are. They aren’t leaving out a 2 loss SEC team at this stage. That’s why we are so confident that we get in with a win over Vandy. If A&M goes on to win the SEC, then we will get 4 SEC teams in. Texas is as good as in right now and probably the surest bet in the SEC to make it in. They aren’t dropping 10 spots for losing to a good team.
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Georgia is the surest bet, followed by an 11-1 Texas or a 10-2 Tennessee if Texas finishes 10-2.....

Now I don't expect A&M to win the SEC if they make Atlanta.... But if they do, that means Texas is out.
 
#64
#64
if A&M wins it’s possible they do not move Texas below us. Even if this happens it probably bumps Indiana or the acc championship game loser instead of TN. If we win I don’t see a path to be passed by two teams provided they rank us properly today. Otoh if a&m beats tx and loses to uga and tx falls below us it increases our odds of hosting a game.
 
#65
#65
JMSqb11 said:
Georgia is the surest bet, followed by an 11-1 Texas or a 10-2 Tennessee if Texas finishes 10-2.....

Now I don't expect A&M to win the SEC if they make Atlanta.... But if they do, that means Texas is out.
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100% guarantee you that Texas is in, even if A&M wins out. In fact, the odds would be better that Texas still hosts a game rather than gets left out. It’s absolutely crazy to me that you even think Georgia is a better bet to make it than Texas if Texas is 11-1. Texas is ranked 6 spots higher in the playoff.

The one consistent thing this committee has shown is that they prioritize teams with fewer losses. They aren’t leaving out a 2 loss SEC team now that there can only be 3 2 loss SEC teams.
 
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#66
#66
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
100% guarantee you that Texas is in, even if A&M wins out. In fact, the odds would be better that Texas still hosts a game rather than gets left out. It’s absolutely crazy to me that you even think Georgia is a better bet to make it than Texas if Texas is 11-1. Texas is ranked 6 spots higher in the playoff.

The one consistent thing this committee has shown is that they prioritize teams with fewer losses. They aren’t leaving out a 2 loss SEC team now that there can only be 3 2 loss SEC teams.
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In the event Texas A&M wins this weekend, Texas will drop to one spot below Tennessee while A&M would still not crack the Top 12 playoff teams.

In the event A&M wins the SEC, Georgia would be the first non A&M team from SEC in the at large spot, followed by Penn State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State/Oregon Loser.... There will simply not be enough spots for a playoff that has an A&M SEC Champion and a 10-2 Texas Longhorns team.....

And if you are one of those pearl clutchers who think Texas has a case to make resume wise against Tennessee, quit being a clown.

A&M winning this weekend would send Texas out of the Top 8 with a playoff spot in 9-12 range as long as A&M loses in Atlanta. A&M winning in Atlanta spells trouble for them Horns Down.... Its math
 
#67
#67
JMSqb11 said:
In the event Texas A&M wins this weekend, Texas will drop to one spot below Tennessee while A&M would still not crack the Top 12 playoff teams.

In the event A&M wins the SEC, Georgia would be the first non A&M team from SEC in the at large spot, followed by Penn State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State/Oregon Loser.... There will simply not be enough spots for a playoff that has an A&M SEC Champion and a 10-2 Texas Longhorns team.....

And if you are one of those pearl clutchers who think Texas has a case to make resume wise against Tennessee, quit being a clown.

A&M winning this weekend would send Texas out of the Top 8 with a playoff spot in 9-12 range as long as A&M loses in Atlanta. A&M winning in Atlanta spells trouble for them Horns Down.... Its math
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This is all just projection trying to say we are better than Texas and not anything based in the reality of where the teams are ranked or would be ranked given different potential outcomes. It makes much more sense now that you are saying something so moronic.

Texas is so locked into a playoff spot that you can’t even bet on whether or not they make the playoffs on DraftKings. I imagine other books have removed them too. Texas is getting in, no matter what happens the rest of the way. And it would take a “clown” to argue otherwise. You are making yourself look like a fool.
 
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#68
#68
We’re guaranteed absolutely zero if we don’t beat Vandy. What anyone else does is immaterial.
 
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#69
#69
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
This is all just projection trying to say we are better than Texas and not anything based in the reality of where the teams are ranked or would be ranked given different potential outcomes. It makes much more sense now that you are saying something so moronic.

Texas is so locked into a playoff spot that you can’t even bet on whether or not they make the playoffs on DraftKings. I imagine other books have removed them too. Texas is getting in, no matter what happens the rest of the way. And it would take a “clown” to argue otherwise. You are making yourself look like a fool.
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The record and resume say we are better than Texas.... They don't have a ranked win if they finish 10-2 while we do.

There simply isn't math there to include a 10-2 Texas team in the event A&M runs the gauntlet. Quit being scared.... 10-2 Tennessee is in the playoff. That's all that matters.
 
#70
#70
JMSqb11 said:
The record and resume say we are better than Texas.... They don't have a ranked win if they finish 10-2 while we do.

There simply isn't math there to include a 10-2 Texas team in the event A&M runs the gauntlet. Quit being scared.... 10-2 Tennessee is in the playoff. That's all that matters.
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I’m not scared. I believe Tennessee is in the playoff if we win to get to 10-2. But Texas is in regardless. 11-1 or 10-2. There is absolutely “the math” for Texas to get in if A&M wins out. The SEC can get 4 teams. There is no scenario where Texas isn’t in the playoff.

Our record and resume do not say we are better than Texas, as they have a better overall record and a better record against common opponents, but that is irrelevant. They are in no matter what. We are in if we win.
 
#71
#71
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
This is all just projection trying to say we are better than Texas and not anything based in the reality of where the teams are ranked or would be ranked given different potential outcomes. It makes much more sense now that you are saying something so moronic.

Texas is so locked into a playoff spot that you can’t even bet on whether or not they make the playoffs on DraftKings. I imagine other books have removed them too. Texas is getting in, no matter what happens the rest of the way. And it would take a “clown” to argue otherwise. You are making yourself look like a fool.
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Lots of teams are locked into the playoffs ... until they lose. Most are expecting them to beat A&M. If they beat A&M, yes, they are getting in because the worst they can end up is 11-2.
If they lose to A&M, it will depend upon where the committee ranks them and what happens between A&M and Georgia and within the other conference championship games.

I would not say Texas is a lock at this point. If they lose to A&M they will drop - the teams that drop tend to drop 4 to 6 spots. No doubt they would drop below Georgia as the committee would realign based on Georgia beating Texas.

The only team that I think is really a lock is Oregon - I think they would survive both a loss to Washington and a loss in the Big 10 championship game. They might be last in, but they would probably survive.
 
#72
#72
volfan102455 said:
Lots of teams are locked into the playoffs ... until they lose. Most are expecting them to beat A&M. If they beat A&M, yes, they are getting in because the worst they can end up is 11-2.
If they lose to A&M, it will depend upon where the committee ranks them and what happens between A&M and Georgia and within the other conference championship games.

I would not say Texas is a lock at this point. If they lose to A&M they will drop - the teams that drop tend to drop 4 to 6 spots. No doubt they would drop below Georgia as the committee would realign based on Georgia beating Texas.

The only team that I think is really a lock is Oregon - I think they would survive both a loss to Washington and a loss in the Big 10 championship game. They might be last in, but they would probably survive.
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Sportsbooks won’t even let you bet on Texas to make or miss the playoffs because it is a foregone conclusion. They aren’t dropping from 3rd to out of it with a loss to a good team in A&M. They certainly aren’t dropping out if they beat A&M.
 
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#73
#73
Texas absolutely could be left out. But only if they lose in a big, ugly way to A&M.

A&M is currently #20 in the AP poll. Texas is #3. Logic might say you move Texas down enough, and A&M up enough, so that A&M is ahead of Tex if the latter lose.

But logic is fuzzy in football, particularly in poll rankings. If the game is very close, even if Texas loses, you could see Texas still ranked higher than A&M come Sunday. Like, Texas at #8 or #9, and A&M at #10 or #11. In that scenario, Texas remains in the playoffs. And A&M is poised to pop up toward the top 4 or 5 spots if they beat UGa in Atlanta.

On the other hand, if A&M absolutely embarrasses Texas this Saturday, like a 10-point or better score difference, the pollsters will absolutely flip-flop the two teams. A&M will get up to #8 or #9, while Texas drops below them. And quite possibly out of the playoffs entirely.

It could happen.

I don't think it will, but it could.

Go Vols!


p.s. And for those who say, "but these are AP rankings, we should be talking about the CFP"...have you noticed how the CFP committee is riding in the AP's shadow this year? They haven't always done that, but they're doing it in 2024.
 
#74
#74
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Sportsbooks won’t even let you bet on Texas to make or miss the playoffs because it is a foregone conclusion. They aren’t dropping from 3rd to out of it with a loss to a good team in A&M. They certainly aren’t dropping out if they beat A&M.
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Doesn't matter and those are based on what they know for now - so it would not make sense for anyone to bet on certain teams - but to take that as a done deal is crazy!

If A&M beats Texas like OU beat Bama, they will drop significantly. How significantly will depend upon how the other teams in the 4 to 12 slot performed - if all those teams win the dop will be significant.

Georgia dropped from 3 to 12 (and out of the playoff group) when they lost to Ole Miss. Georgia beat Texas. What makes you think Texas should be treated differently than Georgia if they incur that second loss in a similar fashion?
 
#75
#75
volfan102455 said:
Doesn't matter and those are based on what they know for now - so it would not make sense for anyone to bet on certain teams - but to take that as a done deal is crazy!

If A&M beats Texas like OU beat Bama, they will drop significantly. How significantly will depend upon how the other teams in the 4 to 12 slot performed - if all those teams win the dop will be significant.

Georgia dropped from 3 to 12 (and out of the playoff group) when they lost to Ole Miss. Georgia beat Texas. What makes you think Texas should be treated differently than Georgia if they incur that second loss in a similar fashion?
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When Georgia lost the second time, there were a bunch of one loss and two loss teams. Indiana and BYU were still undefeated. Texas isn’t going to drop as far because there aren’t as many SEC teams with the same or better record than what Texas would have with another loss. It made sense for 2 loss Georgia to fall behind 1 loss Tennessee who they hadn’t yet beaten, 2 loss Bama who beat them, and 2 loss Ole Miss who beat them. It would be debatable for 2 loss Texas to fall behind 2 loss Tennessee and outrageous for them to fall behind 3 loss Alabama and 3 loss Ole Miss. Indiana and BYU no longer get the benefit of the doubt that they got earlier now that Indiana lost one and BYU has lost 2.

I’m not sure what the obsession is with some of you with saying Texas isn’t getting in if they lose, but they’re already in barring the playoff being canceled or their campus getting blown up or something that extreme.
 
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