Vols Are SEC’s Winningest Program Since 2017

[Boston Vol]

After eight seasons, Rick Barnes is still the best coach for Tennessee at this time. Barnes also has a long, documented history of underachieving in the NCAA tournament. Both things can be true, and in this case I believe that they both are.

 

[zaqhhh]

How much basketball have you coached and at what level is your expertise?
I am trying to understand your frame of reference, so bear with me .... You appear to be completely ignoring any fact that does not fit your vision.
You should not use data that is older than 10 years ... because what a person has done LATELY is MORE relevant ... Ask the Kentucky basketball fans. In fact, the average stay at a college institutions as a basketball coach is @6 years ... reduce your argument to the last 6 years!
In fact you should not use data that is older than @4 years because that is the average life of a contract ... meaning that is the relevant information according to ADs who make the contract. They could care less about 30 years ... they are interested in two things ONLY. What have you done for me lately. And what does it look like going forward!!!
So, here are facts:
2021-22 Tennessee won the SEC Conference tournament ... something they have not done during the ENTIRE length of Rick Barnes career!!!
You completely ignored when I indicated that we were beaten by HOT teams in the NCAA tournament Vols Are SEC’s Winningest Program Since 2017
Here are facts... feel free to tell me why they are invalid ....
2023, we were beaten by a team that reached the Final 4, FAU ... what does the rest of the recent data indicate????
2022, we were beaten by a team that reached the Sweet 16, Michigan State
2021, we were beaten by a team that reached the Elite 8, Oregon State

The funny part is if you look at the last page, if we only take into account the last 5 years, it actually makes my point even more in terms of reality vs expectation.

He actually performed better at Texas than here (not only in absolutes but relative to where he finished Reg season vs postseason)

What does the SEC Title do? It is cool, but it doesnt really mean anything in terms of seed line (not arguing that is right, but it is what it is)

And yes, I am not going to say that some of the opponents we played haven't been good or advanced far but we have 27 years of data showing he underperforms as a whole. You all try to pull out a small segment and patch together a blanket of excuses.

The ONLY argument that is valid from the Pro-Barnes people is asking whether or not he is the best we can reasonably get.

Arguing the March results are defensible is lunacy.

 

[Orange.]

Duke has won like 19 of 20

We withstood an absolute barrage in the 2nd half. Without Ziegler

What a story, what a game, what a finish.

Go Big Orange!

Pearl is so far, if Rick gets to the E8, he would have a big argument....

 

[Vols410]

The funny part is if you look at the last page, if we only take into account the last 5 years, it actually makes my point even more in terms of reality vs expectation.

He actually performed better at Texas than here (not only in absolutes but relative to where he finished Reg season vs postseason)

What does the SEC Title do? It is cool, but it doesnt really mean anything in terms of seed line (not arguing that is right, but it is what it is)

And yes, I am not going to say that some of the opponents we played haven't been good or advanced far but we have 27 years of data showing he underperforms as a whole. You all try to pull out a small segment and patch together a blanket of excuses.

The ONLY argument that is valid from the Pro-Barnes people is asking whether or not he is the best we can reasonably get.

Arguing the March results are defensible is lunacy.

Don’t understand how the only metric to evaluate is postseason relative to regular season success when the coach is so hugely responsible for the regular season success in the first place. No reason at all to think a 30-2 S16 is a worse coaching job than a 22-10 S16.

Even if you do want to put all your eggs in the single round elimination tournament basket (which isn’t at all a great indicator of future performance…), it would make more sense to just look at the finish, not the over/underperforming expectations.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

You used an anecdote, I gave you 27 years of detailed tourney data.

Tell me facts bother you without telling me

He is a great coach but is incapable of doing it in March. How big of a sample size you need?

You said: I think we need to start moving towards a successor quickly.

That is one of the most clueless comments that’s ever been posted in the BBF.

 

[zaqhhh]

View attachment 543756

Do you want me to stop supporting the Vols? or call Barnes terrible?

I'm confused as to where I am yo-yoing by saying he is both a great coach and reached his peak here

Are the two mutually exclusive?

 

[zaqhhh]

You said: I think we need to start moving towards a successor quickly.

That is one of the most clueless comments that’s ever been posted in the BBF.

Regardless if you agree about Barnes from a performance perspective, he is just 5 years away from being the oldest P5 coach I believe.

Don’t understand how the only metric to evaluate is postseason relative to regular season success when the coach is so hugely responsible for the regular season success in the first place. No reason at all to think a 30-2 S16 is a worse coaching job than a 22-10 S16.

Even if you do want to put all your eggs in the single round elimination tournament basket (which isn’t at all a great indicator of future performance…), it would make more sense to just look at the finish, not the over/underperforming expectations.

If I look at only the finish and put comparable coaches who have went 15+ times with similar seed lines, the results are still mostly better than Barnes.

 

[hUTch2002]

If you look during Barne's entire tenure here (8 seasons) we come in at #44. The only way your statistics paint an accurate picture is if you took the top 6 of the last 8 years for every program. I'm not going to do the math on that. Feel free.

I get what you’re saying and understand the logic but it’s not the same as cherry picking 2 years out of the middle to exclude. The OP did qualify the first 2 years weren’t included.

 

[hUTch2002]

I will absolutely admit he is a great regular season coach but please shut up with this “Tournament is a crapshoot” garbage.

Barnes CANT coach in March period, end of story.

Let’s look at his total NCAA Tourney history:

Underperformed Seed Line: 14
Performed at Seed Line: 12
Overperformed Seed Line: 1

(Note is impossible to underperform seed line any year seeded below 8 which makes numbers above even worse!)

Lost to 9 or lower Seed: 11 Times (4 in 5 postseasons at UT)

Beat a seed at least 3 lines better: 1 time
Lost to a seed at least 3 lines worse: 8 times

Games decided by 8 or less in NCAAT:
11-21


I want to iterate that the numbers above aren’t just bad, they are almost unbelievably atrocious.

You can say “well at least he makes the tourney every year.” Which is a half valid point but when you have nearly 30 postseason appearances and absolutely nothing to show for it, it is a hard argument to make that a team shouldn’t abandon Barnes when they reach his ceiling.

You have to give context though. What’s normal? I’d also be curious to see his record against lower seeds and record against higher seeds, not just seeds that are 3 spots different. Since he has higher seeds he’s going to play lower seeds more often.

 

[hUTch2002]

Projected results by seed:
R64: 4
R32: 12
S16: 7
E8: 3
F4: 1

Barnes Actual Result by seed:
R64: 9
R32: 7
S16: 8
E8: 2
F4: 1

And these results are even worse obviously when considering just the UT tenure

That’s not quite as bleak as you tried to make it sound. It basically comes down to 5 1st round upsets when he should’ve made the second round. And what were those? Were they 7-10 or 8-9 games?

 

[zaqhhh]

That’s not quite as bleak as you tried to make it sound. It basically comes down to 5 1st round upsets when he should’ve made the second round. And what were those? Were they 7-10 or 8-9 games?

Any upsets like that he has the chance to make up in 9-8 games or 10-7 games so I don't see your point? It balances out.

Nor does your point about him having a higher seed line. If you look at his total history, his seed line is around 6-7 ish as an average. Might be a bit higher in his UT tenure but it isn't like he is having less chances to upset than he has been to be upset.

 

[Vols410]

Projected results by seed:
R64: 4
R32: 12
S16: 7
E8: 3
F4: 1

Barnes Actual Result by seed:
R64: 9
R32: 7
S16: 8
E8: 2
F4: 1

And these results are even worse obviously when considering just the UT tenure

Wait a minute. According to most that are dissatisfied with Barnes, a second round exit is a failure anyway, so all of this “Barnes is a terrible NCAAT coach” really only comes down to trading an E8 for a S16? That’s absolutely TINY compared to the stability and success he’s brought to this program.

 

[hUTch2002]

Any upsets like that he has the chance to make up in 9-8 games or 10-7 games so I don't see your point? It balances out.

Nor does your point about him having a higher seed line. If you look at his total history, his seed line is around 6-7 ish as an average. Might be a bit higher in his UT tenure but it isn't like he is having less chances to upset than he has been to be upset.

The point was simply your data is incomplete as it lacks context. You don’t like him so you picked what supported your narrative, at least in that first post, vs laying it all out and letting others decide for themselves.

 

[hUTch2002]

And no one is arguing he is a bad coach. No one is even arguing he isn’t a good coach. Or even a great regular season coach.

But time and time again he fails in March at a rate that is likely the worst or close to it of any coach with 10 or more appearances with a P5 school.

And if the above is true, the question is what is acceptable in the long run?

That should be the focus of any debate.

And it’s a legitimate question to ask if we could find better, but I think at some point we have to acknowledge Barnes can’t do much more (while thanking him for what he has done)

See, like this right here. How do you know he’s “the worst or close to it of any coach with 10 or more appearances with a P5 school”? You haven’t shown data to back that up so are you assuming that? Maybe it’s true and maybe it isn’t.

 

[hUTch2002]

My only contention would be that he is including other programs' down years, regardless of the reasons for having a down year. If another program was also rebuilding during the last 6 years should that not also be taken into consideration?

I only say that because all programs go through ups and downs, rebuilds and down years. The only accurate way to compare Barnes' tenure to other programs and coaches is to include ALL of their rebuilds and down years during the same time frame as what Barnes has had.

Yeah but Kentucky has zero excuse for being behind UT. They’ve had better talent the entirety of the last 6 years and UT has been better. Considering Pearl has been at Auburn 9 years I’d say that’s also a valid measuring stick.