Vegas Loves the Vols

#7
#7
Vegas is usually pretty close. I hope they are wrong in this case and we go 15-0.:yahoo:
 
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#10
#10
KBVol said:
My thought as well. How'd Vegas do picking Tennessee's games last year?
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What I could find for last year had us at 8 regular season wins. Which was exactly correct.

I'm curious about further back.
 
#11
#11
codymcvfl said:
10.5 regular season wins is high 😳 I wouldve put it at 9.5. Hoping we pull the over obviously.
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I would put it at a flat 10 if I was the house. Get a push at 10, with money switching hands at 11 and 9.

10.5 seems like a sucker for people to take the under, which means they really like the Vols.
 
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#13
#13
KBVol said:
My thought as well. How'd Vegas do picking Tennessee's games last year?
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The over/under was 7.5 wins last year. And we won 8 games.

In 2014 it was 5.5 wins and we won 6.

So Vegas has been bizarrely accurate the last 2 years.

If the over/under is 10.5 wins this year, then I guess we should expect an 11 win season next year given their accuracy the last 2 years.
 
#15
#15
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
The over/under was 7.5 wins last year. And we won 8 games.

In 2014 it was 5.5 wins and we won 6.

So Vegas has been bizarrely accurate the last 2 years.

If the over/under is 10.5 wins this year, then I guess we should expect an 11 win season next year given their accuracy the last 2 years.
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I will say this. They are much more accurate than the media overall.
 
#17
#17
Okay, Vegas loves the vols? The sportsbook, is balancing the money in (minus the vig), these pre-season odds only reflect, actual cash down (after setting start odds) and NOT expected outcome. There is so much time between now and end of season, manipulation of the odds guarantees the house their percentage. But for those that believe this is based on a secret group of experts in a "Special high security" room on the strip, by all means bet the farm!
 
#18
#18
I40flyer said:
Okay, Vegas loves the vols? The sportsbook, is balancing the money in (minus the vig), these pre-season odds only reflect, actual cash down (after setting start odds) and NOT expected outcome. There is so much time between now and end of season, manipulation of the odds guarantees the house their percentage. But for those that believe this is based on a secret group of experts in a "Special high security" room on the strip, by all means bet the farm!
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I never bet on the teams I love. That is an easy way to end up flat broke
 
#19
#19
I40flyer said:
Okay, Vegas loves the vols? The sportsbook, is balancing the money in (minus the vig), these pre-season odds only reflect, actual cash down (after setting start odds) and NOT expected outcome. There is so much time between now and end of season, manipulation of the odds guarantees the house their percentage. But for those that believe this is based on a secret group of experts in a "Special high security" room on the strip, by all means bet the farm!
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The starting lines are usually very good, if you look at it through a pure favorites-as-predicted-winner lens, they have an exceptional record (something north of 80-85%% if memory serves).

If you're looking at is as a score prediction, they're still good enough to make copious amounts of cash. And, there's actually evidence derived from long term studies that show that they aren't trying to balance the bet, they're actually inflating the spread to favor favorites by a point, and letting the gambler's psychology do the rest (most bets favor favorites). And, by inflating that line by a point, Vegas's expected profit jumps from something like 54% to 62%.

This is all from memory, I haven't studied those numbers for a year or two.
 
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#20
#20
daj2576 said:
The starting lines are usually very good, if you look at it through a pure favorites-as-predicted-winner lens, they have an exceptional record (something north of 80-85%% if memory serves).

If you're looking at is as a score prediction, they're still good enough to make copious amounts of cash. And, there's actually evidence derived from long term studies that show that they aren't trying to balance the bet, they're actually inflating the spread to favor favorites by a point, and letting the gambler's psychology do the rest (most bets favor favorites). And, by inflating that line by a point, Vegas's expected profit jumps from something like 54% to 62%.

This is all from memory, I haven't studied those numbers for a year or two.
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Vegas DOES NOT BALANCE THE MONEY, they only balance the bet AFTER they have established the vig. The Sportsbook(s) have been known to 'shave' the vig (betting on the bets-not the game). The 'original odds are a basic calculation, however; they change as soon as money starts being bet. Some schools have a 'strong following' of idiots and bet on their team, no matter what. Sports book in and out of the US love these schools, but how much, when etc. is their [the house's] inside knowledge-the house has no requirement at all in disclosing how much is bet on a game, when the bets came in etc. This is why the lines change, up and down. Early predictors, are usually "Accurate" because of one thing, fluff games, we'll have our fair share this year. These are usually 'safe bets' and the odds will reflect that. For example UT, should be able to win six games this year, just on paper-easy money? You'll be looking at a negative line. Nonetheless, the house very seldom takes a loss-because they will be pulling the vig, on every bet.
 
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