Vegas has UT favored

#76
#76
Power T-Rev said:
UT was favored by 7 when it opened and it's now at 6.5. Over/under is 50 down from 52.5 with 70% betting on UT covering the spread
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If 70% are taking the Vols and giving the points how does the spread go down? If 70% of bets are on the Vols the spread would be going up to even out the money.:ermm:
 
#80
#80
orangetd88 said:
It would've been had their not been that unheard of flurry of turnovers in the second quarter. We really dominate that game at all.
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So WKU just handed us the ball?

Im pretty sure the "forced" part in forced turnover still applies, correct?
 
#81
#81
1974Vol said:
If 70% are taking the Vols and giving the points how does the spread go down? If 70% of bets are on the Vols the spread would be going up to even out the money.:ermm:
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Because Vegas sets the line based on what it thinks the outcome will be, not based on public betting patterns. The reason for that is two-fold: first, Vegas couldn't get even money on a game very often, even if it tried; second, Vegas makes a more reliable profit from being right than they do from trying to "even out" the money.

For the spread to go down, means someone or someones (called "smart money" in the local parlance) is betting Utah State and that is someone Vegas has respect for.
 
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#82
#82
I'm totally betting on UT. We will win by more than seven. I have faith in the Jones.
 
#83
#83
chattavol420 said:
We go through this every year. Because we lost virtually all our close sec games against Rivals last year...some people decide a team like Utah state is going to come in here and kick out asses. Just one problem, Utah state isn't an sec rival. We will drill them. Just like we did wku last year and NC state the year before.
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This is also just respect for Utah State in Vegas. During their good run the last 3Y, here is their game performance against BCS teams:

Auburn 2011: lost by 4
Utah 2012: won by 7
Wisconsin 2012: lost by 2
Utah 2013: lost by 4
USC 2013: lost by 3

By contrast, some of our weaker recent performances against the mid-conference "decent" opponents with whom we had a major talent edge:

UAB 2010: won by 3
Troy 2012: won by 7
South Alabama 2013: won by 7

I don't agree with the spread being as low as it is, but that is the likely reason for the spread.
 
#84
#84
VegasVol said:
This is also just respect for Utah State in Vegas. During their good run the last 3Y, here is their game performance against BCS teams:

Auburn 2011: lost by 4
Utah 2012: won by 7
Wisconsin 2012: lost by 2
Utah 2013: lost by 4
USC 2013: lost by 3

By contrast, some of our weaker recent performances against the mid-conference "decent" opponents with whom we had a major talent edge:

UAB 2010: won by 3
Troy 2012: won by 7
South Alabama 2013: won by 7

I don't agree with the spread being as low as it is, but that is the likely reason for the spread.
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This years team is a bit different than our teams in '13 and '12.
 
#87
#87
1974Vol said:
If 70% are taking the Vols and giving the points how does the spread go down? If 70% of bets are on the Vols the spread would be going up to even out the money.:ermm:
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70% of the BETS are on the Vols, that doesn't mean 70% of the MONEY is on them. When spreads move against the public betting (70%), it usually means the sharps and big bettors are betting the opposite way, outweighing the 70% by betting much more money than the public is.
 
#88
#88
MJA said:
70% of the BETS are on the Vols, that doesn't mean 70% of the MONEY is on them. When spreads move against the public betting (70%), it usually means the sharps and big bettors are betting the opposite way, outweighing the 70% by betting much more money than the public is.
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In other words betting with Utah, but keeping it within the spread? correct?
 
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