Utah State opens as early Vegas favorite @Tennessee

#101
#101
LKGates said:
Oh man. This is so embarrrassing. This is like walking into a bar, and having your wing man tell some hot chick that you drive a Ferrari, when you know you've got a Toyota Camry parked outside.

First there were those crazy guys at Sports Illustrated:

Florida State, Alabama top Way-Too-Early college football Top 25 - College Football - Martin Rickman - SI.com

Then the nuts at ESPN:

What are college football's top 25 teams for 2014?

Then the clowns at Yahoo Sports:

Y! SPORTS

Now Vegas?!?!:

http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfpred.txt

WHAT ARE THESE GUYS SMOKING?!?!?!

I hope you don't hold us Aggies responsible for the actions of these folks. We're not the ones making these crazy predictions! I've said repeatedly. This is a money game for us. We have three goals for the money game: 1-Get the money. 2-Don't have any season ending injuries. 3-Try not to be embarrassed.

Look, I hope you have a great season. If I were you, I certainly wouldn't be expecting to start it with a loss to Utah State.

Go Vols! Go AGGIES!
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Biggest troll job ever. I applaud you!
 
#104
#104
Utah St. is in conference who gives a F@#$. If they come here and beat a mid level SEC team (hate to say it but we are as of today) at home in front of nine of there fans then we should drop to conference who gives a S#%@. I dont care how good you think they were last year.
 
#105
#105
fade route said:
Agree again. Vandy was a 9 win SEC team. It may hurt worse to lose to Vandy, but losing your opener at home to Utah State would be worse, much worse, for the program.
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esp with Oklahoma and UF games looming afterwards
 
#106
#106
JohnnyBall said:
Anyone who hasn't watched utah state doesn't know what they don't know.
They might be better than Tennessee.
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And if you've watched Utah state play, how many common opponents did we share?

Without commonality there is no comparison. I will tell you this, they do not have the talent. In fact beyond USC (a game they lost), I don't believe they played a game against a team who averages recruiting in the top 50.

Can Utah State win? Yes. Is it likely? Nope.

I could explain why polls are wrong and why most pundits are idiots but I'll just leave you with this. If polls were close to ranking the teams from best to worst, couldn't the 8th best team in the nation have 7 losses and still be the 8th best team (if they played teams 1-7?) Would any poll allow a 7 loss team ranked in the top 10? Nope.
 
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#108
#108
LotteryPick said:
Butch is proven, just not at an SEC level.

USU has proven they can win, just not against SEC teams.

Soooo ...
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There is no special talent required of coaches to win SEC games. If there was, Saban wouldn't be trying to change the rules to cover up his deficiencies against the HUNH, he would just adjust and out coach.

Saban win games due to talent disparities. So does about 70% of every other coach in CFB.

The SEC is better because of significantly better talent overall. (Yes FSU out recruited Auburn).

Jones has a long history of doing more with less talent than his opponents. He also has a long history of improving his talent relative to his competition. That is the magic combo for long term success.
 
#109
#109
daj2576 said:
Can Utah State win? Yes. Is it likely? Nope.
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Actually, a Utah St victory is more likely than a UT win. Statistically speaking anyway. Phil Steele analyzed 20,882 every college football games going back to 1997. Games involving spreads of 3 points or less --- the favored team wins 52.22% of the time.
 
#111
#111
TCbodybuilder said:
Actually, a Utah St victory is more likely than a UT win. Statistically speaking anyway. Phil Steele analyzed 20,882 every college football games going back to 1997. Games involving spreads of 3 points or less --- the favored team wins 52.22% of the time.
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That's the line at kickoff. This is too early for that.
 
#112
#112
Bunch of negative Nancy's in here. We should thank Vegas - motivation builder and we beat the brakes off them in Neyland.
 
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#114
#114
Just for the record, Odds are not established based off who the experts think will win but rather what's enticing for bettors. Line will almost certainly favor Tennessee at kickoff.
 
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#116
#116
daj2576 said:
And if you've watched Utah state play, how many common opponents did we share?

Without commonality there is no comparison. I will tell you this, they do not have the talent. In fact beyond USC (a game they lost), I don't believe they played a game against a team who averages recruiting in the top 50.

Can Utah State win? Yes. Is it likely? Nope.

I could explain why polls are wrong and why most pundits are idiots but I'll just leave you with this. If polls were close to ranking the teams from best to worst, couldn't the 8th best team in the nation have 7 losses and still be the 8th best team (if they played teams 1-7?) Would any poll allow a 7 loss team ranked in the top 10? Nope.
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Polls and Vegas are not even cl
 
#117
#117
daj2576 said:
And if you've watched Utah state play, how many common opponents did we share?

Without commonality there is no comparison. I will tell you this, they do not have the talent. In fact beyond USC (a game they lost), I don't believe they played a game against a team who averages recruiting in the top 50.

Can Utah State win? Yes. Is it likely? Nope.

I could explain why polls are wrong and why most pundits are idiots but I'll just leave you with this. If polls were close to ranking the teams from best to worst, couldn't the 8th best team in the nation have 7 losses and still be the 8th best team (if they played teams 1-7?) Would any poll allow a 7 loss team ranked in the top 10? Nope.
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Polls and Vegas are not the same thing so I'm not sure why you're bringing them up to argue the validity of a betting line, unless I misunderstood and that's not what you were saying. I agree that the early polls don't mean squat but you best believe Vegas knows what they're talking about/doing.
 
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#118
#118
TCbodybuilder said:
Actually, a Utah St victory is more likely than a UT win. Statistically speaking anyway. Phil Steele analyzed 20,882 every college football games going back to 1997. Games involving spreads of 3 points or less --- the favored team wins 52.22% of the time.
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The team, statistically speaking, with a higher recruiting average wins over 70% of the time. When one team recruits in the top 25 and the other outside the top half, the number is higher.
 
#119
#119
Phat-Phil said:
Polls and Vegas are not same thing so I'm not sure why you're bringing them up to argue the validity of a betting line, unless I understood and that's not what you were saying. I agree that the early polls don't mean squat but you best believe Vegas knows what they're talking about/doing.
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Polls and betting aren't the same, but what is similar is how people view both incorrectly. Vegas sets a line to entice betters, not pick winners. The line shifts, generally, to assure that roughly 50% of all bets fall on one side or the other, of that line.

Speaking in very general terms, the end result is that the majority of betters pick the spread, not Vegas. Those numbers are right, insofar as picking a straight winner or loser at kickoff, about 80% of the time( according to my numbers).

Polls are important to this conversation for two reasons, 1) dumb money bets using the polls as an indication of who should win (as do many people who have referenced a teams poll ranking on this site), and 2)polls are inherently flawed and mathematically predictable based off of wins/losses and then conference affiliation. Actual strength of schedule, a better indication of how good a team really is, is almost never considered.
 
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#120
#120
daj2576 said:
Polls and betting aren't the same, but what is similar is how people view both incorrectly. Vegas sets a line to entice betters, not pick winners. The line shifts, generally, to assure that roughly 50% of all bets fall on one side or the other, of that line.

Speaking in very general terms, the end result is that the majority of betters pick the spread, not Vegas. Those numbers are right, insofar as picking a straight winner or loser at kickoff, about 80% of the time( according to my numbers).

Polls are important to this conversation for two reasons, 1) dumb money bets using the polls as an indication of who should win (as do many people who have referenced a teams poll ranking on this site), and 2)polls are inherently flawed and mathematically predictable based off of wins/losses and then conference affiliation. Actual strength of schedule, a better indication of how good a team really is, is almost never considered.
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A well thought out and insightful post. Thanks for the response :hi:.
 
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#123
#123
once again,they set the lines,odds or what ever just to get you to place a bet,they just want there house cut :)
 
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