UT Computer Rankings

[FancyBoyVol]

I love tracking UT's movement throughout the year on the various computer ranking sites.

The aggregator I use: Massey Ratings

Pre-season is the best, as ratings are primarily based on speculative data, so the rankings are extremely varied, some bordering on ridiculous (see Dwiggins below).

Using 46 different computer models to start the year (more will be added after Week 1), UT is ranked 79th. Fairly reasonable, in my opinion, considering last year's record, roster attrition, and the unknown nature of this new UT staff and team.

But there is something for everyone.

If you wear orange-tinted glasses (otherwise known on VN as a "sunshine pumper"), check out this particular model: Bordering on Wisdom - filter to 'rankings by week'

If you lean more pessimistically (otherwise known on VN as a "nega-Vol" - or a "realist", this model may align more with your beliefs: Dwiggins

 

[HoptownVol]

We're not #79, I've got them in the 41-60 range. Transition years are rarely awe inspiring, but I think this team could surprise some people, and I'm a died in wool Neg.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Power 5 teams who have a bad year are rarely as weak as they get ranked by the pollsters.

Just like Group of 5 teams who have a good year are rarely as strong as they get ranked.

We were certainly down last year. And yet, we probably never dipped below 60th-best in the country, even then. Not really.

Today, we're probably realistically in the 21-40 range. I'm hoping we'll be one notch higher at the end of the year, but it won't be a disaster if we stay there, at 21-40.

 

[FancyBoyVol]

This ranking has UT worse than 23 FCS teams and just ahead of Ouachita Baptist, a Division II school: Talisman, a/k/a Total Garbage

 

[Hoot Bigson]

Nice work FancyBoyVol! What are some of the better ones in predicting scores/wins in your opinion?

 

[LakeMaryFLVol]

I love tracking UT's movement throughout the year on the various computer ranking sites.

The aggregator I use: Massey Ratings

Pre-season is the best, as ratings are primarily based on speculative data, so the rankings are extremely varied, some bordering on ridiculous (see Dwiggins below).

Using 46 different computer models to start the year (more will be added after Week 1), UT is ranked 79th. Fairly reasonable, in my opinion, considering last year's record, roster attrition, and the unknown nature of this new UT staff and team.

But there is something for everyone.

If you wear orange-tinted glasses (otherwise known on VN as a "sunshine pumper"), check out this particular model: Bordering on Wisdom - filter to 'rankings by week'

If you lean more pessimistically (otherwise known on VN as a "nega-Vol" - or a "realist", this model may align more with your beliefs: Dwiggins

Ok the bordering on wisdom one has Vols with 61% chance of winning WV game and only has the spread at 3,5?..Am I correctly reading that chart?

 

[cgbtn]

In actuality, preseason rankings probably have as much, or more, to do with opponents as they do with the ranked team. Our schedule includes a bunch of teams which are expected to easily beat us. With a different schedule, we might be ranked 20 places higher.

 

[VollerNbham]

41-60 but what does it matter. The real #'s will start in a week so let's get the W's started.

 

[fatal1]

you can have all the computer ranking you want make them like your team or not you can get all the so called prognosticators to be for you or against you but it all comes down to what team has the most heart which team wants to win it the most.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

Somewhere in the 30 to 40 range is where I would put us at the moment.

 

[81Orange]

Preseason we could be between 20 and 60. By bowl season we will be a good match for teams ranked 20 to 30.

 

[99bubble]

Thanks OP. Cool stuff. Anyone know if Daj has been around? Loved his posts about talent rankings and coach effect. Wonder how they handle a new coach like Pruitt.

 

[photovol]

We're not #79, I've got them in the 41-60 range. Transition years are rarely awe inspiring, but I think this team could surprise some people, and I'm a died in wool Neg.

The truth is usually somewhere in the middle, but I'm praying for a miracle from this new era of Tennessee football. With great coaching and leadership, overachieving is always a possibility and overachieving would only help the Vols to reach, where we all want them to be and that is, to be Champions!
Go Vols

 

[hUTch2002]

I love tracking UT's movement throughout the year on the various computer ranking sites.

The aggregator I use: Massey Ratings

Pre-season is the best, as ratings are primarily based on speculative data, so the rankings are extremely varied, some bordering on ridiculous (see Dwiggins below).

Using 46 different computer models to start the year (more will be added after Week 1), UT is ranked 79th. Fairly reasonable, in my opinion, considering last year's record, roster attrition, and the unknown nature of this new UT staff and team.

But there is something for everyone.

If you wear orange-tinted glasses (otherwise known on VN as a "sunshine pumper"), check out this particular model: Bordering on Wisdom - filter to 'rankings by week'

If you lean more pessimistically (otherwise known on VN as a "nega-Vol" - or a "realist", this model may align more with your beliefs: Dwiggins

Wow. 20 is way too high for preseason and that “poll” projects every SEC team to be 6-6 except Vandy at 5-7. I’m not going to do the math but I’m guessing that isn’t even possible. And that’s why analytics can’t be used as a sole predictive model for anything. They are a tool that must be combined with common sense. And I certainly don’t think 121 in the other poll is being a realist at all. That is flat stupid. If we went 4-8 again we wouldn’t be 121. 41-60 is about right when you balance the fact that we do have some talent with the unknowns and a tough schedule.

 

[peerless98]

This ranking has UT worse than 23 FCS teams and just ahead of Ouachita Baptist, a Division II school: Talisman, a/k/a Total Garbage

That's ridiculous! BTW, my wife attended school at Ouachita Baptist while I was attending Henderson State University in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. Their respective football stadiums are directly across the street from each other, lol.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

I love tracking UT's movement throughout the year on the various computer ranking sites.

The aggregator I use: Massey Ratings

Pre-season is the best, as ratings are primarily based on speculative data, so the rankings are extremely varied, some bordering on ridiculous (see Dwiggins below).

Using 46 different computer models to start the year (more will be added after Week 1), UT is ranked 79th. Fairly reasonable, in my opinion, considering last year's record, roster attrition, and the unknown nature of this new UT staff and team.

But there is something for everyone.

If you wear orange-tinted glasses (otherwise known on VN as a "sunshine pumper"), check out this particular model: Bordering on Wisdom - filter to 'rankings by week'

If you lean more pessimistically (otherwise known on VN as a "nega-Vol" - or a "realist", this model may align more with your beliefs: Dwiggins

Sigh! All four teams we beat last year are rated higher than us this year in the Dwiggins poll. Do they think Butch is still the coach?

 

[captennmike]

That's ridiculous! BTW, my wife attended school at Ouachita Baptist while I was attending Henderson State University in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. Their respective football stadiums are directly across the street from each other, lol.

I grew up crossing Hwy 67 to watch the Reddies! I even went there for two semesters. No way either of these teams could hang with our Vols, just a whole nother level.

 

[Pepe]

I love tracking UT's movement throughout the year on the various computer ranking sites.

The aggregator I use: Massey Ratings

Pre-season is the best, as ratings are primarily based on speculative data, so the rankings are extremely varied, some bordering on ridiculous (see Dwiggins below).

Using 46 different computer models to start the year (more will be added after Week 1), UT is ranked 79th. Fairly reasonable, in my opinion, considering last year's record, roster attrition, and the unknown nature of this new UT staff and team.

But there is something for everyone.

If you wear orange-tinted glasses (otherwise known on VN as a "sunshine pumper"), check out this particular model: Bordering on Wisdom - filter to 'rankings by week'

If you lean more pessimistically (otherwise known on VN as a "nega-Vol" - or a "realist", this model may align more with your beliefs: Dwiggins

The "bordering on wisdom"full season projection agrees with my admittedly overly optimistic view of prognostication in that they say that Tennessee has the fourth-best team in the sec. The preseason vegas projection as UT winning only 5 1/2 games which I think we will do much better than that.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

When roughly half the teams ranked above us are clearly inferior to the Vols--teams that we would almost certainly beat head-to-head on the field--you know there's something wrong with the ranking system.

Consider these teams, all ranked above the Vols on Massey's Composite:

• Iowa
• Northwestern
• Boise State
• Louisville
• Memphis
• Boston College
• Wake Forest
• Duke
• Georgia Tech
• South Florida
• Florida Atlantic
• Purdue
• San Diego State
• Arizona State
• Fresno State
• Toledo
• Navy
• Houston
• Troy
• Appalachian State
• Indiana
• Army
• Ohio
• Minnesota
• Northern Illinois
• Temple
• Marshall
• Wyoming
• Syracuse
• Louisiana Tech
• Maryland
• Colorado
• Western Michigan
• Virginia

How many of those do you believe we would not beat, head-to-head? Heck, several of them we HAVE beaten in the past few years, and all the rest I'm confident we would.

And then there are the peer competitors, those at (very roughly) the same level as us currently, about half of which we should reasonably be expected to beat head-to-head while losing to the other half:

• Virginia Tech
• UCF
• Texas
• NC State
• South Carolina
• Kansas State
• Utah
• West Virginia
• Washington State
• Missouri
• Florida
• Texas Tech
• Mississippi
• Pitt
• Cal
• UCLA
• Kentucky
• North Carolina

So you subtract out the 34 inferior teams, and roughly half of the 18 peer competitors, and find out where we truly reside. We are not the 79th best team in the country; more realistically somewhere in the 21-40 block.

 

[FancyBoyVol]

Week 2 bump.

At kickoff Saturday, September 8, UT's aggregated computer rankings:

Aggregate: 89 (Massey Computer Average)

Highest: 24 (Bordering on Wisdom)

Lowest: 121 (Dwiggins)

Of note: the Mangels projection has UT worse than 17 FCS teams (Mangels) and this one has an NAIA team - the Keiser Seahawks - ranked higher (Talisman)