Updated Conference/Playoff Discussion (long)

#102
#102
Rickyvol77 said:
We shall see who's right
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Dude, you’ve been wrong about them all season.

You say their wins “aren’t that good” but what of our wins? We’ve only beaten the 3 WORST SEC teams. Vandy has beaten at least 2 mid-tier conference teams (ranked #10 & #15 at the time).

You basically dismiss their ranked wins as akin to the BIG 10 teams “ranked” wins but that often comes early in the season with those teams’ overrated preseason rankings. Vandy’s wins were in weeks 8 & 9. Still, they’ve beaten teams ranked at the time and we have not.

You are not being fair in your analysis and it is due to blatant bias.

For our playoff chances we better hope Vandy is 10-1 coming into Knoxville because we may very well need that strong highly-ranked victory to make the CFP, supposing we win the rest.
 
#103
#103
OrangeEtBlanc said:
Dude, you’ve been wrong about them all season.

You say their wins “aren’t that good” but what of our wins? We’ve only beaten the 3 WORST SEC teams. Vandy has beaten at least 2 mid-tier conference teams (ranked #10 & #15 at the time).

You basically dismiss their ranked wins as akin to the BIG 10 teams “ranked” wins but that often comes early in the season with those teams’ overrated preseason rankings. Vandy’s wins were in weeks 8 & 9. Still, they’ve beaten teams ranked at the time and we have not.

You are not being fair in your analysis and it is due to blatant bias.

For our playoff chances we better hope Vandy is 10-1 coming into Knoxville because we may very well need that strong highly-ranked victory to make the CFP, supposing we win the rest.
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Well one Tennessee is a much better team with a much better coach and I am a Tennessee fan

Besides that, what I said is 100% factual, and Vanderbilt is not making the playoffs or beating Tennessee.

I dismiss them because South Carolina shouldn't be counted as a "ranked win" even though they were when they won't even sniff a bowl game

Mizzou was also not that great a team, and Vandy only won because their QB broke his leg.

We are in the playoffs at 10-2 no matter what Vandy does or doesn't do.
 
#104
#104
OrangeEtBlanc said:
Ricky, I think you continue to sleep on Vandy in your analysis. They have at Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, and at Tennessee left. If they beat the Longhorns this Saturday (who have not looked good, and Arch may not play), I don’t see how they come into Neyland with more than 1 loss. That game may very well be a play-in game for the CFP.
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Honestly (as a side note here) Texas’s backup has been playing better - in the sense of more consistency rather than up and down - than Arch. That might actually benefit Texas if it’s him instead.
 
#105
#105
TrueOrange said:
Honestly (as a side note here) Texas’s backup has been playing better - in the sense of more consistency rather than up and down - than Arch. That might actually benefit Texas if it’s him instead.
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The backup has literally attempted 11 passes this entire year. But sure, that qualifies as “been playing better” lmaooooo
 
#106
#106
Rickyvol77 said:
Well one Tennessee is a much better team with a much better coach and I am a Tennessee fan

Besides that, what I said is 100% factual, and Vanderbilt is not making the playoffs or beating Tennessee.

I dismiss them because South Carolina shouldn't be counted as a "ranked win" even though they were when they won't even sniff a bowl game

Mizzou was also not that great a team, and Vandy only won because their QB broke his leg.

We are in the playoffs at 10-2 no matter what Vandy does or doesn't do.
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Man, I appreciate the work you put in on these analyses, but you are letting ethereal “feelings” dictate over facts. You may feel Vandy is smoke & mirrors, but the fact is they are currently 7-1, ranked in the top 10, and don’t have a tremendously difficult remaining schedule. Thus, you have to at least account for them, even if you think they will not pan out because they are in the conversation.

I fear the committee will not put 5 SEC teams in unless they absolutely have to, and it’s looking like they won’t have to.

The current SEC top 4 would be:

A&M
Alabama
Georgia
Ole Miss

I agree with your 3 from the BIG:
Ohio State
Indiana
Oregon

Including the Big 12 & ACC winners:
BYU/Texas Tech
GT/Miami/UVA

Notre Dame has already made its way back into the conversation, and they are unlikely to lose again.

Then include the G5 winner:
Memphis or USF

That is 11/12 spots right there, without factoring any other possible at-large bids for the ACC or Big 12.

You think the committee will put a 10-2 Tennessee team with no elite wins in over a 1-loss (or even 2-loss) team from another conference for the last at-large? When the SEC already has 4 teams? We NEED Vandy to be ranked high for the last game.

This is not even factoring potential upsets in CCGs that could steal spots.

I’m a fan, too, but those hopes are unrealistic. We needed Oklahoma to beat Ole Miss yesterday so we could slip into the top 4 in the SEC. Now, I fear, we need a lot of chaos.
 
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#107
#107
JMSqb11 said:
The backup has literally attempted 11 passes this entire year. But sure, that qualifies as “been playing better” lmaooooo
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Caldwell transferred from a group of 5 and though he’s had limited reps, for him to throw a beautiful fade for a TD when Arch was down was impressive.

I live in Austin so I keep up with Texas. There’s only one real UT 😂 but I will say Arch doesn’t throw with great precision all the time and struggles going through progressions.

I can’t believe Mississippi State blew that game yesterday…17 point lead with 7 minutes left to lose is a heartbreaker.
 
#108
#108
MDsweetT said:
Caldwell transferred from a group of 5 and though he’s had limited reps, for him to throw a beautiful fade for a TD when Arch was down was impressive.

I live in Austin so I keep up with Texas. There’s only one real UT 😂 but I will say Arch doesn’t throw with great precision all the time and struggles going through progressions.

I can’t believe Mississippi State blew that game yesterday…17 point lead with 7 minutes left to lose is a heartbreaker.
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Is it me or has there been a massive drop off in offensive line play for Texas? I’m truly shocked how bad it looks when I’ve watched this year. Sark does nothing to help with it either by moving the pocket and whatnot.
 
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#109
#109
OrangeEtBlanc said:
Man, I appreciate the work you put in on these analyses, but you are letting ethereal “feelings” dictate over facts. You may feel Vandy is smoke & mirrors, but the fact is they are currently 7-1, ranked in the top 10, and don’t have a tremendously difficult remaining schedule. Thus, you have to at least account for them, even if you think they will not pan out because they are in the conversation.

I fear the committee will not put 5 SEC teams in unless they absolutely have to, and it’s looking like they won’t have to.

The current SEC top 4 would be:

A&M
Alabama
Georgia
Ole Miss

I agree with your 3 from the BIG:
Ohio State
Indiana
Oregon

Including the Big 12 & ACC winners:
BYU/Texas Tech
GT/Miami/UVA

Notre Dame has already made its way back into the conversation, and they are unlikely to lose again.

Then include the G5 winner:
Memphis or USF

That is 11/12 spots right there, without factoring any other possible at-large bids for the ACC or Big 12.

You think the committee will put a 10-2 Tennessee team with no elite wins in over a 1-loss (or even 2-loss) team from another conference for the last at-large? When the SEC already has 4 teams? We NEED Vandy to be ranked high for the last game.

This is not even factoring potential upsets in CCGs that could steal spots.

I’m a fan, too, but those hopes are unrealistic. We needed Oklahoma to beat Ole Miss yesterday so we could slip into the top 4 in the SEC. Now, I fear, we need a lot of chaos.
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You'll see what happens if we are 10-2

There is a reason that the playoff predictor has us in at 90%

They aren't putting in a 11-2 Virginia team or a 11-2 Texas Tech team that didn't win their conference over us or Ole Miss

Even Notre Dame at 10-2 is a real stretch at this point and who is really fighting against that 2nd ACC team not us...too many better teams there

The only wildcard out there that would knock one of those teams out is if Michigan wins out and upsets Ohio St at 10-2 or Iowa wins out and wins the Big Ten, and those two things aren't likely
 
#110
#110
JMSqb11 said:
Is it me or has there been a massive drop off in offensive line play for Texas? I’m truly shocked how bad it looks when I’ve watched this year. Sark does nothing to help with it either by moving the pocket and whatnot.
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The difference between Texas' OL play vs their DL play is shocking
 
#111
#111
JMSqb11 said:
Is it me or has there been a massive drop off in offensive line play for Texas? I’m truly shocked how bad it looks when I’ve watched this year. Sark does nothing to help with it either by moving the pocket and whatnot.
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Huge drop off. They lost 3 lineman to the pros and didn’t backfill the position during the portal. Texas is probably a 🔝 4 talented team, but the offensive line is meh.

Sark isn’t going to give up playcalling. He’s a very stubborn coach. It’s like he’s trying to force Arch into his scheme not the other way around.
 
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#112
#112
Tennessee - will win out and finish 10-2 we don't lose at home unless your name is Kirby Smart. we will beat OU, NMS and Vandy. we will also beat a sub .500 team with no head coach in the Swamp. I have come to the conclusion after the Kentucky game that nothing short of winning out is even acceptable. losing to Florida or Vandy at home on senior day would be unforgivable attrocities that would have to be immediately assessed by the UT higher-ups

Bama- the only game they could possibly lose is the Iron Bowl. probably not. 11-1

Georgia - the only game they could lose is GT. even if they lose they have it over Tennessee so it don't matter. 11-1 or 10-2

TAMU - just beat the piss out of LSU in death valley at night. I hate to tell y'all but they ain't losing a game until the SECCG. 12-0

Ole Piss - would have to absolutely choke their season away with a loss against Miss St at the end of the year. I don't see that happening. they will finish with 1 close loss on the road against UGA 11-1

Candy- will lose to both UTs on the road, 3 losses, eliminated from discussion. next. 9-3

Oklahoma still has at least 2 losses on their schedule (Bama/Tennessee) and I stand by my prediction that they finish out of the top 25. 8-4, unranked. next.

Texas - has 2 more losses on their schedule (Georgia and TAMU) 8-4, unranked. next.

Missouri has 2 more losses on their schedule (TAMU and OK) 8-4, unranked, next.

SEC final standings
1. TAMU 12-0 (8-0)
2. Bama 11-1 (8-0)
3. UGA 11-1 or 10-2 (7-1)
4. Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1)
5. Tennessee 10-2 (6-2)
6. Vandy 9-3 (5-3)
7-16 who cares, at least 4 losses

SECCG- TAMU vs Bama - no matter who wins this game they both get in ahead of Tennessee (TAMU would have just 1 loss and Bama would have 2 losses but a win over Tennessee)

the CFP would then chose Georgia next (wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss)

the CFP would then chose Ole Miss (just t1 loss)

that leaves Tennessee as the 5th option. Tennessee will be 10-2 and MAYBE ranked in the top 10 depending on schools from other conferences.
 
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#113
#113
MDsweetT said:
Huge drop off. They lost 3 lineman to the pros and didn’t backfill the position during the portal. Texas is probably a 🔝 4 talented team, but the offensive line is meh.

Sark isn’t going to give up playcalling. He’s a very stubborn coach. It’s like he’s trying to force Arch into his scheme not the other way around.
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All I can think of is the 2009 team with Compton and a weak line here. Compton basically had 10-20 rollouts per game as we couldn’t block b
UTFranklinVol said:
Tennessee - will win out and finish 10-2

Bama- the only game they could possibly lose is the Iron Bowl. probably not. 11-1

Georgia - the only game they could lose is GT. even if they lose they have it over Tennessee so it don't matter. 11-1 or 10-2

TAMU - just beat the piss out of LSU in death valley at night. I hate to tell y'all but they ain't losing a game until the SECCG. 12-0

Ole Piss - would have to absolutely choke their season away with a loss against Miss St at the end of the year. I don't see that happening. they will finish with 1 close loss on the road against UGA 11-1

Candy- will lose to both UTs on the road, 3 losses, eliminated from discussion. next. 9-3

Oklahoma still has at least 2 losses on their schedule (Bama/Tennessee) and I stand by my prediction that they finish out of the top 25. 8-4, unranked. next.

Texas - has 2 more losses on their schedule (Georgia and TAMU) 8-4, unranked. next.

Missouri has 2 more losses on their schedule (TAMU and OK) 8-4, unranked, next.

SEC final standings
1. TAMU 12-0 (8-0)
2. Bama 11-1 (8-0)
3. UGA 11-1 or 10-2 (7-1)
4. Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1)
5. Tennessee 10-2 (6-2)
6. Vandy 9-3 (5-3)
7-16 who cares, at least 4 losses

SECCG- TAMU vs Bama - no matter who wins this game they both get in ahead of Tennessee (TAMU would have just 1 loss and Bama would have 2 losses but a win over Tennessee)

the CFP would then chose Georgia next (wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss)

the CFP would then chose Ole Miss (just t1 loss)

that leaves Tennessee as the 5th option. Tennessee will be 10-2 and MAYBE ranked in the top 10 depending on schools from other conferences.
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Tennessee needs a 10-1 Vandy to be the final win of the regular season to have any chance. For 5 SEC teams to get in, it’s gonna come down to ACC having 1 team and Notre Dame staying on the bubble. If the consolidation in the SEC happens like yesterday and this upcoming week with 1 and 2 loss teams facing each other, Notre Dame will simply slide up the standings without doing anything. The downside of having so much parity in the SEC is eventually they will eat each other and teams will drop as they all give losses.
 
#114
#114
UTFranklinVol said:
Tennessee - will win out and finish 10-2

Bama- the only game they could possibly lose is the Iron Bowl. probably not. 11-1

Georgia - the only game they could lose is GT. even if they lose they have it over Tennessee so it don't matter. 11-1 or 10-2

TAMU - just beat the piss out of LSU in death valley at night. I hate to tell y'all but they ain't losing a game until the SECCG. 12-0

Ole Piss - would have to absolutely choke their season away with a loss against Miss St at the end of the year. I don't see that happening. they will finish with 1 close loss on the road against UGA 11-1

Candy- will lose to both UTs on the road, 3 losses, eliminated from discussion. next. 9-3

Oklahoma still has at least 2 losses on their schedule (Bama/Tennessee) and I stand by my prediction that they finish out of the top 25. 8-4, unranked. next.

Texas - has 2 more losses on their schedule (Georgia and TAMU) 8-4, unranked. next.

Missouri has 2 more losses on their schedule (TAMU and OK) 8-4, unranked, next.

SEC final standings
1. TAMU 12-0 (8-0)
2. Bama 11-1 (8-0)
3. UGA 11-1 or 10-2 (7-1)
4. Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1)
5. Tennessee 10-2 (6-2)
6. Vandy 9-3 (5-3)
7-16 who cares, at least 4 losses

SECCG- TAMU vs Bama - no matter who wins this game they both get in ahead of Tennessee (TAMU would have just 1 loss and Bama would have 2 losses but a win over Tennessee)

the CFP would then chose Georgia next (wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss)

the CFP would then chose Ole Miss (just t1 loss)

that leaves Tennessee as the 5th option. Tennessee will be 10-2 and MAYBE ranked in the top 10 depending on schools from other conferences.
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Then come to the reality that the Vandy UT Game will be a playoff elimination game and we may be decimated with injuries on defense. Losing to Texas would help but, Tennessee has to win that game.
 
#116
#116
Rickyvol77 said:
You'll see what happens if we are 10-2

There is a reason that the playoff predictor has us in at 90%

They aren't putting in a 11-2 Virginia team or a 11-2 Texas Tech team that didn't win their conference over us or Ole Miss

Even Notre Dame at 10-2 is a real stretch at this point and who is really fighting against that 2nd ACC team not us...too many better teams there

The only wildcard out there that would knock one of those teams out is if Michigan wins out and upsets Ohio St at 10-2 or Iowa wins out and wins the Big Ten, and those two things aren't likely
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I hope you are right about 10-2! I just am not sold on it just yet and hope we get some chaos to make it more likely, haha.
 
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#117
#117
JMSqb11 said:
The backup has literally attempted 11 passes this entire year. But sure, that qualifies as “been playing better” lmaooooo
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It was more in reference to consistency. Arch has been up and down, all over the place: he’s been great when it’s up but almost just as much it’s been down and he’s struggled significantly.
The backup’s a senior with 4 years experience who went into the season completed 290 passes for over 3000 yards and 21 TDs (compared to Arch’s 95 total completions going into the year).

“Been playing better” was the wrong wording. He has more overall experience and that’s been a bit on display some when he’s been in (a bit at the end of the Florida game and the Miss State game)… he’s not so far shown Arch’s current tendency of getting really rattled if things start going the wrong way (which honestly a lot of times comes early at this level from lessened experience in college systems, Arch will grow out of it).
 
#118
#118
Let's just keep plugging. Let's beat Oklahoma. Then beat New Mexico State. Then beat Florida's dumb ass. Then beat Vandy. Then we'll see how the chips fall.

1761491339610.png

Truth is, we can be _exactly_ the team that we all now recognize ourselves to be, and end up 10-2. Or 8-4. Same team.

So let's just keep plugging.

Go Vols!
 
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#120
#120
UTFranklinVol said:
Tennessee has to win all their games no matter what, so yes they have to beat Vandy.
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No kidding Tennessee has to win out.
Tennessee plays very physical teams in this back end (OK, FL & Vanderbilt) of the schedule.
Unless Banks figures it out with the defense and adjusts we ain't winning out.
Somewhere this Defense has to Flip on the switch, but players are often out of position.
They need a defensive coach and staff. How many analysts are there for the defense.
All I hear is the Offense analyst.
I did not like Banks out of the B10 as a coordinator. We needed a SEC experienced coordinator.
 
#121
#121
Rickyvol77 said:
I've watched their games, LSU is not that great especially on offense, SC is not that great especially on offense, VT is not that great especially on offense, Mizzou is not that great especially on offense.
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…Missouri went into that game ranked 10th in total offense and in the top 5 in total defense.

Rickyvol77 said:
They've beaten "ranked teams" the way Indiana beat Illinois who was "ranked"....it's fool's gold...I've also watched teams like Utah State and Georgia St and those aforementioned teams walk up and down the field on Vandy.. Utah St was closer to scoring 50 points than being shut down...even LSU moved at will on them and self-destructed themselves.

And it's not bias it's reality...Mizzou would have beaten them if their coach took FGs instead of being a moron and their QB didn't break his leg forcing them to play a 3rd string freshman with no experience and they STILL almost beat Vandy.
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They only went for it instead of kicking a FG once. Not kicking a field goal, itself, only accounted for them losing out on 3 points of the 7 point loss. Not defending the decision at this point but that alone doesn’t change the game’s outcome

But if you saw the 28 yard field goal they decided to actually let that true freshman walk-on kicker (replacing the senior starter who tore his ACL) attempt, it starts feeling less like “being a moron” and probably a more, understandably, “hand was forced” (especially given that kid they’re forced to use has either missed a FG, missed an extra point, or had a FG or extra point blocked in all but 1 game this season…).

There was also this fun one the kid kicked last week (link is edited to start at the kick attempt itself).

 
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