Update on Kirkland and JRM

[volfanbill]

It's like people don't realize Alabama is the game after aTm. A one loss uga or UF trumps us in the SECE if we lose to aTm and Bama regardless of a perfect record against the east. Math is hard.

 

[BeecherVol]

Do you really see uga running the table though?

No more than UF.

 

[sjt18]

It's like people don't realize Alabama is the game after aTm. A one loss uga or UF trumps us in the SECE if we lose to aTm and Bama regardless of a perfect record against the east. Math is hard.

I don't think many believe that either will go undefeated through the rest of their SEC schedules. One will lose to the other and effectively put themselves out of the running assuming UT wins this weekend.....

The winner if UF has to beat MU, Vandy, USCe, Ark, and LSU.

If UGA wins this weekend then they control their destiny with a pretty favorable schedule. They still play Auburn from the West and have to beat UF.

 

[volfanbill]

I don't think many believe that either will go undefeated through the rest of their SEC schedules. One will lose to the other and effectively put themselves out of the running assuming UT wins this weekend.....

The winner if UF has to beat MU, Vandy, USCe, Ark, and LSU.

If UGA wins this weekend then they control their destiny with a pretty favorable schedule. They still play Auburn from the West and have to beat UF.

So, again, beating uga is no more important than beating aTm unless we somehow beat Bama

 

[WillisWG]

You do realize that if we lose to Georgia, the Bulldogs control their own destiny to Atlanta.

If we beat Georgia, we have a 3 game lead on them and a 2 game lead on Florida with the head to head tiebreakers. I am baffled how anyone can sit here and say that the A&M game is of equal importance in the race for Atlanta. That's simply not true.

Current standing UT 1-0, UGA 1-1, UF 1-1. A win over GA would give us a 2 game lead not 3 and if Florida beats Vandy they will be 2-1 and our lead will still be 1 game.

And I understand why you are baffled.

 

[BeecherVol]

So, again, beating uga is no more important than beating aTm unless we somehow beat Bama

You can play "if" and "unless" from several angles. If UT loses to UGA they essential have to beat A&M and Bama to tie UGA (assuming they win out which you have to do at the time) in which case UGA goes to Atl with their only loss to OM and sweeping the east.

I think the east winner is gonna be 7-1 at best and maybe even 6-2. At 6-2 you better have your tiebreakers covered. Losing to UGA this weekend leaves one of those open.

 

[volfanbill]

Current standing UT 1-0, UGA 1-1, UF 1-1. A win over GA would give us a 2 game lead not 3 and if Florida beats Vandy they will be 2-1 and our lead will still be 1 game.

And I understand why you are baffled.

If we beat uga, we have a three have lead over them due to head to head. If Florida runs the table and we lose to Alabama and aTm, we're in second behind Florida. People feel comfy that UF will lose again though. I'd rather just know we took care of both uga and aTm and have no reason to hope Florida does lose again for SEC East champ considerations

 

[volfanbill]

You can play "if" and "unless" from several angles. If UT loses to UGA they essential have to beat A&M and Bama to tie UGA (assuming they win out which you have to do at the time) in which case UGA goes to Atl with their only loss to OM and sweeping the east.

I think the east winner is gonna be 7-1 at best and maybe even 6-2. At 6-2 you better have your tiebreakers covered. Losing to UGA this weekend leaves one of those open.

Undoubtedly. But losing to aTm opens doors for UF and even uga if we stumble to Bama and get upset somewhere down the road. I'm not downplaying the uga game. That's not my point. My point is I'm not downplaying the aTm game.

 

[DismantleVol]

Current standing UT 1-0, UGA 1-1, UF 1-1. A win over GA would give us a 2 game lead not 3 and if Florida beats Vandy they will be 2-1 and our lead will still be 1 game.

And I understand why you are baffled.

I understand simple math can be can be difficult for people like you, Willis. I also can see that it is very difficult for you to understand how a head to head tiebreaker works.

 

[Aday25]

We obviously need to beat UGA, but we definitely need to hope our team can split A&M and Bama. I think 10-2 would get us to ATL but it's not a guarantee.

Florida doesn't have as tough as a schedule as us, but they do play against LSU at home who is going to have some renewed energy probably now after the whole Miles debacle. Then they play AT Arkansas, which is a team that looks a heck of a lot better than originally thought. I could see them losing one if not both of those games. Florida running the table seems like an overreaction after what I saw from them on offense Saturday.

Florida loses one more game. And I'm guessing Arkansas. LSU is a hot mess.

 

[BeecherVol]

Undoubtedly. But losing to aTm opens doors for UF and even uga if we stumble to Bama and get upset somewhere down the road. I'm not downplaying the uga game. That's not my point. My point is I'm not downplaying the aTm game.

UT losing either of the next 2 puts UF back in play but if its to A&M it puts UGA behind the 8 ball and makes it a 2 team race IMO. Id rather get UGA out of the picture and leave it to 2 teams with us holding the tie breaker.

Id rather just win out...
But the different ways it can play out are interesting to discuss.

 

[BeecherVol]

Florida loses one more game. And I'm guessing Arkansas. LSU is a hot mess.

Wouldn't surprise me if LSU plays better football going forward with the "cloud" out of the way. They still have a lot of good football players down there,

 

[volfanbill]

I'd rather just win out...
But the different ways it can play out are interesting to discuss.

I agree. The more we win, the more we shut the door. Beating both uga and aTm gives us the ultimate upper hand, assuming we don't get upset with the lighter part of the schedule

 

[08Vol]

Not anymore than the injury to Kirkland or what the game dictates such as a blowout. In a blow out, you would take Kirkland out. If Kirkland is 100 percent, he is far better than Jumper. But, Jumper's progress makes you feel better about your depth there than what we did anytime during the off season. However, he is still the back up.

Jumper has looked bad against mobile QBs which makes sense. His limitations are like AJ's, not very good lateral or recovery speed. He should be fine against Eason but will be a liability again against ATM and Bama

 

[BeecherVol]

I agree. The more we win, the more we shut the door. Beating both uga and aTm gives us the ultimate upper hand, assuming we don't get upset with the lighter part of the schedule

Would make "The 3rd Saturday in October" about as big as it can get.

 

[sjt18]

So, again, beating uga is no more important than beating aTm unless we somehow beat Bama

So again.... no.

If UGA wins this weekend then end in a tie with UT at the end of the season, UGA wins the tiebreaker.

If UT wins this weekend and end in a tie with UF, UGA, or both then UT wins the tiebreaker by virtue of having beaten them both. If UGA beats UT and they all end up in a two loss tie then it goes through a somewhat complex series of rules. If anyone loses another game in the division then they would be the first excluded. Assuming that doesn't happen then the rule says you have to look at common opponents from the other division.

It would probably get down to rule G which could help UT since Bama and TAM should have a better combined conference record than Ole Miss plus Auburn or LSU plus Ark.

SEC Divisional Tie-Breaker

HOWEVER, if UT wins this weekend then UGA or UF can only win the East by finishing their SEC season without another loss or hoping that UT loses to someone they shouldn't.

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

Last year, when we got beat by florida, some if not most were saying UT is still in play in the East. But Florida got red hot after they beat us and never really gave us hope to get back in the Eastern division race. I predict the same from us this year. Florida is done and I'm not worried about Georgia at all.

 

[volfanbill]

So again.... no.

If UGA wins this weekend then end in a tie with UT at the end of the season, UGA wins the tiebreaker.

If UT wins this weekend and end in a tie with UF, UGA, or both then UT wins the tiebreaker by virtue of having beaten them both. If UGA beats UT and they all end up in a two loss tie then it goes through a somewhat complex series of rules. If anyone loses another game in the division then they would be the first excluded. Assuming that doesn't happen then the rule says you have to look at common opponents from the other division.

It would probably get down to rule G which could help UT since Bama and TAM should have a better combined conference record than Ole Miss plus Auburn or LSU plus Ark.

SEC Divisional Tie-Breaker

HOWEVER, if UT wins this weekend then UGA or UF can only win the East by finishing their SEC season without another loss or hoping that UT loses to someone they shouldn't.

You really don't get how losses play out huh?

Let's put it this way. Lose to uga this weekend, aTm next weekend, bama after that. Well, the East is out the window. But keep not understanding losses.

 

[sjt18]

You really don't get how losses play out huh?

Let's put it this way. Lose to uga this weekend, aTm next weekend, bama after that. Well, the East is out the window. But keep not understanding losses.

You apparently cannot understand the rules for tiebreakers, huh?

Stop burning straw men. No one said that if the Vols lose the next 3 that they can somehow win the East with more losses.

Because of the tiebreaker rules, TAM and UGA are NOT equally important wins. If UF, UGA, and UT were to all finish 6-2 and UT had beaten them both.... UT wins the East.

IOW's, UT could win this week, lose the next two, and win the East by rule so long as both UF and UGA lose another game.

 

[90 Vol]

So in other words, we just need to keep winning games. :rock:

 

[WillisWG]

I understand simple math can be can be difficult for people like you, Willis. I also can see that it is very difficult for you to understand how a head to head tiebreaker works.

Simple math, my friend is what SEC uses to determine their weekly conference standing. Simple math based on W & L.

So beat UGA and the conference standing will show us with a 2 game lead over them based on simple math. Period. No more, no less.

Granted it is 2 game lead with the h2h tie-break. But tie-breaker are not reflected in the weekly standings and why? Because SEC tie breaker procedures ONLY come in to play in the event of a tie for division championship.

But if you or anyone else want to count a head to head win as an extra game lead over a team then go right ahead but don't look for SEC to do that or me.

 

[volfanbill]

You apparently cannot understand the rules for tiebreakers, huh?

Stop burning straw men. No one said that if the Vols lose the next 3 that they can somehow win the East with more losses.

Because of the tiebreaker rules, TAM and UGA are NOT equally important wins. If UF, UGA, and UT were to all finish 6-2 and UT had beaten them both.... UT wins the East.

IOW's, UT could win this week, lose the next two, and win the East by rule so long as both UF and UGA lose another game.

No, you just don't bother to read. Lose to aTm and Bama, Florida wins out and tiebreakers don't matter. But hey, just keep ignoring it

 

[BeecherVol]

Simple math, my friend is what SEC uses to determine their weekly conference standing. Simple math based on W & L.

So beat UGA and the conference standing will show us with a 2 game lead over them based on simple math. Period. No more, no less.

Granted it is 2 game lead with the h2h tie-break. But tie-breaker are not reflected in the weekly standings and why? Because SEC tie breaker procedures ONLY come in to play in the event of a tie for division championship.

But if you or anyone else want to count a head to head win as an extra game lead over a team then go right ahead but don't look for SEC to do that or me.

Your H2H exception is the relevant math. If we beat UF and UGA neither individually will go to Atl in front of us with the same record.

 

[Catbone]

We likely won't win the East if we lose UGA

 

[MrBiggles]

who cares as long as Jumper is healthy

Who would have thought we'd see this on here!