Ukraine Protests

[Burhead]

Burhead,
In your opinion what's Putins end game here?

That's a very difficult question, I think even the professionals are having a hard time figuring it out. I have a couple of theories;

Short-Term

Scenario 1

He wants to dismember Ukraine to the point where it is no longer a functional government. Once that is achieved he will freeze the conflict and will have achieved his goal of a buffer state. In this scenario the Donetsk People's Republic & Lugansk People's Republic remain nominally "independent". The rest of Ukraine will become Georgia with occupied territories.

Scenario 2

Same as the first, he wants to put Kiev in it's place. This time however he directly annexes the DPR and LPR into the Russian Federation in clear violation of international law and norms. This option would continue the isolation of Russia but I don't think Putin cares.

Scenario 3

In this scenario he decides that the West will not do anything and drives all the way to Odessa to create a land corridor for Crimea.

Scenario 4

Finally he decides to try and retake all of Ukraine. I don't this is feasible nor a reality given the current capabilities of the Russian Military and it's budget.

Long Term

Put wants to reassert Russian power on the world map. Not to mention he has dreams of recreating a new version of the Soviet Union. If the West does not stop him in Eastern Ukraine it will be Moldova next than the Baltic States, than Poland. The ultimate goal is to take America/NATO a step down and he is willing to do anything and suffer any loss to embarrass us.

 

[Burhead]

Holy ****

@yurybarmin 5m5 minutes ago

BOOM Merkel/Hollande peace plan is based on Minsk agreement, but rebels get to keep extra 1,500 km2 of territory they won+autonomy for them
0 replies 19 retweets 3 favorites

 

[Burhead]

@DarthPutinKGB now24 seconds ago

A German coming to Moscow to discuss the territorial integrity of eastern Europe with a dictator? I call it "Molotov-ribbentrop 2015"

 

[Burhead]

Latest Vice News dispatch from the front.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LzEx03UQFI[/youtube]

 

[Velo Vol]

BOOM Merkel/Hollande peace plan is based on Minsk agreement, but rebels get to keep extra 1,500 km2 of territory they won+autonomy for them

The "self-defense" units aren't going to adhere to a peace agreement when they are advancing on the battlefield.

 

[Obsessed]

That's a very difficult question, I think even the professionals are having a hard time figuring it out. I have a couple of theories;

Short-Term

Scenario 1

He wants to dismember Ukraine to the point where it is no longer a functional government. Once that is achieved he will freeze the conflict and will have achieved his goal of a buffer state. In this scenario the Donetsk People's Republic & Lugansk People's Republic remain nominally "independent". The rest of Ukraine will become Georgia with occupied territories.

Scenario 2

Same as the first, he wants to put Kiev in it's place. This time however he directly annexes the DPR and LPR into the Russian Federation in clear violation of international law and norms. This option would continue the isolation of Russia but I don't think Putin cares.

Scenario 3

In this scenario he decides that the West will not do anything and drives all the way to Odessa to create a land corridor for Crimea.

Scenario 4

Finally he decides to try and retake all of Ukraine. I don't this is feasible nor a reality given the current capabilities of the Russian Military and it's budget.

Long Term

Put wants to reassert Russian power on the world map. Not to mention he has dreams of recreating a new version of the Soviet Union. If the West does not stop him in Eastern Ukraine it will be Moldova next than the Baltic States, than Poland. The ultimate goal is to take America/NATO a step down and he is willing to do anything and suffer any loss to embarrass us.

Thank you sir.

 

[Burhead]

The "self-defense" units aren't going to adhere to a peace agreement when they are advancing on the battlefield.

Agreed. You can negotiate with someone who wants war. I keep telling everyone until Putin sees actual costs of aggression he'll keep pushing and pushing. I'd rather fight a proxy war in Ukraine where we don't actually have to get involved instead of waiting till he invades the Baltic states where it WILL be our problem.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Agreed. You can negotiate with someone who wants war. I keep telling everyone until Putin sees actual costs of aggression he'll keep pushing and pushing. I'd rather fight a proxy war in Ukraine where we don't actually have to get involved instead of waiting till he invades the Baltic states where it WILL be our problem.

Wait, we had no business brokering a transition of power deal with the Ukrainian opposition last winter, nor do we have any business sending arms to Ukraine this winter, but now you are saying that if there is a conflict in the Baltics that we have somehow be involved next winter?

We had zero business getting involved in any of this mess. If it was such a big concern, let the EU handle it.

 

[Obsessed]

Agreed. You can negotiate with someone who wants war. I keep telling everyone until Putin sees actual costs of aggression he'll keep pushing and pushing. I'd rather fight a proxy war in Ukraine where we don't actually have to get involved instead of waiting till he invades the Baltic states where it WILL be our problem.

If he invaded the Baltic states, what would be our recourse? Would this be sanctions or??

 

[Burhead]

Wait, we had no business brokering a transition of power deal with the Ukrainian opposition last winter, nor do we have any business sending arms to Ukraine this winter, but now you are saying that if there is a conflict in the Baltics that we have somehow be involved next winter?

We had zero business getting involved in any of this mess. If it was such a big concern, let the EU handle it.

The Baltic's are NATO states and should Russia try it's special war there we have a treaty obligation to intervene. I will agree to the stipulation that we have no business being in Ukraine should you agree that Putin doesn't either.

If he invaded the Baltic states, what would be our recourse? Would this be sanctions or??

War. It would invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It remains to be seen if any NATO state would have the balls to live up to it's commitments though. Given the current state of America and Europe I think we would sacrifice them.

 

[Grand Vol]

Wait, we had no business brokering a transition of power deal with the Ukrainian opposition last winter, nor do we have any business sending arms to Ukraine this winter, but now you are saying that if there is a conflict in the Baltics that we have somehow be involved next winter?

We had zero business getting involved in any of this mess. If it was such a big concern, let the EU handle it.

You mean other than the fact the Baltics are NATO

ETA: Burhead beat me to it.

 

[Grand Vol]

Given the current state of America and Europe I think we would sacrifice them.

And that would be the end of NATO as we know it.

 

[Burhead]

You mean other than the fact the Baltics are NATO

ETA: Burhead beat me to it.

Given the current environment in both this country and Europe I don't see them living up to their commitments do you?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

That's a very difficult question, I think even the professionals are having a hard time figuring it out. I have a couple of theories;

Short-Term

Scenario 1

He wants to dismember Ukraine to the point where it is no longer a functional government. Once that is achieved he will freeze the conflict and will have achieved his goal of a buffer state. In this scenario the Donetsk People's Republic & Lugansk People's Republic remain nominally "independent". The rest of Ukraine will become Georgia with occupied territories.

Scenario 2

Same as the first, he wants to put Kiev in it's place. This time however he directly annexes the DPR and LPR into the Russian Federation in clear violation of international law and norms. This option would continue the isolation of Russia but I don't think Putin cares.

Scenario 3

In this scenario he decides that the West will not do anything and drives all the way to Odessa to create a land corridor for Crimea.

Scenario 4

Finally he decides to try and retake all of Ukraine. I don't this is feasible nor a reality given the current capabilities of the Russian Military and it's budget.

Long Term

Put wants to reassert Russian power on the world map. Not to mention he has dreams of recreating a new version of the Soviet Union. If the West does not stop him in Eastern Ukraine it will be Moldova next than the Baltic States, than Poland. The ultimate goal is to take America/NATO a step down and he is willing to do anything and suffer any loss to embarrass us.

I think that had the coup last February not occurred, you would still have a united Ukraine from now until whenever. Putin was more concerned with having a EurAsian trade zone than recreating a new Soviet Union. Which is why former republics like Kazakhstan and Belarus dont seem to be shaking in their boots at the fear of a new Red Empire.

But, as things are now, I think Moscow would be more than happy to have this entire ordeal resolved if the Minsk agreements are realized, which probably would end up leaving Ukraine divided into eastern and western sections.

If the US and NATO cool their jets and stop meddling in affairs that are not of their concern or engaging in activity that everyone on the planet knows would provoke a Russian response (NATO missiles and military hardware in the Baltics, Georgia and the remainder of Ukraine), I think we will be one step closer to peace.

 

[Burhead]

I think that had the coup last February not occurred, you would still have a united Ukraine from now until whenever. Putin was more concerned with having a EurAsian trade zone than recreating a new Soviet Union. Which is why former republics like Kazakhstan and Belarus dont seem to be shaking in their boots at the fear of a new Red Empire.

But, as things are now, I think Moscow would be more than happy to have this entire ordeal resolved if the Minsk agreements are realized, which probably would end up leaving Ukraine divided into eastern and western sections.

If the US and NATO cool their jets and stop meddling in affairs that are not of their concern or engaging in activity that everyone on the planet knows would provoke a Russian response (NATO missiles and military hardware in the Baltics, Georgia and the remainder of Ukraine), I think we will be one step closer to peace.

Guess you missed where Belarus has passed legislation saying that if "Little Green Men" start showing up in Minsk they will consider it an act of war? That said, why can't sovereign countries decide for themselves if they want in NATO or EU or not? Why must they consult with Russia? Second why must Russia use rump states to control interests in those regions as well?

I'll go one step further. Had Russia not annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, the people of Ukraine and Russia would still be friendly to each other. Not everything is a direct result of Western action my friend.

Edit:

Of course Russia would love to see a divided Ukraine. Putin truly fears a modern Western democracy on his border because he is afraid the same will happen to him.

 

[volprof]

Ras, noble defender of freedom worldwide.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I'll go one step further. Had Russia not annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, the people of Ukraine and Russia would still be friendly to each other. Not everything is a direct result of Western action my friend.

Well first off, Russia was already in Crimea. They could not afford to have the instability in Kiev jeopardize their naval base. Crimea will never fall out of Russian hands without a fight. Anyone with half a brain cell should have known this. But obviously, the war gamers in the US State Department didn't do their homework.

This entire situation was a result of western intervention... Obama admitted as much several days ago.

 

[Burhead]

Well first off, Russia was already in Crimea. They could not afford to have the instability in Kiev jeopardize their naval base. Crimea will never fall out of Russian hands without a fight. Anyone with half a brain cell should have known this. But obviously, the war gamers in the US State Department didn't do their homework.

This entire situation was a result of western intervention... Obama admitted as much several days ago.

So you're not even willing to agree Russia has a role in the destabilization of Ukraine?

 

[MG1968]

Well first off, Russia was already in Crimea. They could not afford to have the instability in Kiev jeopardize their naval base. Crimea will never fall out of Russian hands without a fight. Anyone with half a brain cell should have known this. But obviously, the war gamers in the US State Department didn't do their homework.

This entire situation was a result of western intervention... Obama admitted as much several days ago.

You give Obama way too much credit and don't give Russian media the skepticism they deserve.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Guess you missed where Belarus has passed legislation saying that if "Little Green Men" start showing up in Minsk they will consider it an act of war?

I think you may have missed some key points with that declaration.

Under New Belarus Law, 'Little Green Men' Would Mean War

The amendments would also apply to incursions from the West into Belarus, which borders three NATO nations.

The amendments stipulate that the "sending by a foreign country or countries or on behalf of a foreign country or countries of armed groups, irregular armed forces, mercenary groups or regular armed forces, who use arms against Republic of Belarus" will lead to an announcement of a state of war.

I think that is a swipe taken at the Blackwater mercenaries and military advisers that the US normally uses more than anything else.

 

[Pacer92]

Guess you missed where Belarus has passed legislation saying that if "Little Green Men" start showing up in Minsk they will consider it an act of war? That said, why can't sovereign countries decide for themselves if they want in NATO or EU or not? Why must they consult with Russia? Second why must Russia use rump states to control interests in those regions as well?

I'll go one step further. Had Russia not annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, the people of Ukraine and Russia would still be friendly to each other. Not everything is a direct result of Western action my friend.

Edit:

Of course Russia would love to see a divided Ukraine. Putin truly fears a modern Western democracy on his border because he is afraid the same will happen to him.

They didn't annex Crimea and certainly haven't invaded E Ukraine. Why do you insist on copy/paste of MSM in regards to the events in Ukraine? Kiev invaded E Ukraine without any negotiations!

Had Russia invaded Ukraine, this would of been over in mere weeks. Russia has no interest in claiming territory in E Ukraine and have stated so since the beginning.

Truly amazing at the blinders some people wear!

 

[Pacer92]

You give Obama way too much credit and don't give Russian media the skepticism they deserve.

This is the echo in this thread.....just an excuse!

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

So you're not even willing to agree Russia has a role in the destabilization of Ukraine?

Of course they have a hand in it. The west instigated the situation and the Russians responded as anyone would have (or should have) expected them to respond.

But no sir, they were not the catalyst. that is the fact that many of you seem to not want to come to terms with, even after Obama admitted it. We had the US State Department go into Ukraine and orchestrate a series of subversive and seditious events. Russia responded.

 

[Burhead]

They didn't annex Crimea and certainly haven't invaded E Ukraine. Why do you insist on copy/paste of MSM in regards to the events in Ukraine? Kiev invaded E Ukraine without any negotiations!

Had Russia invaded Ukraine, this would of been over in mere weeks. Russia has no interest in claiming territory in E Ukraine and have stated so since the beginning.

Truly amazing at the blinders some people wear!

You have no idea.

 

[volprof]

Well first off, Russia was already in Crimea. They could not afford to have the instability in Kiev jeopardize their naval base. Crimea will never fall out of Russian hands without a fight. Anyone with half a brain cell should have known this. But obviously, the war gamers in the US State Department didn't do their homework.

This entire situation was a result of western intervention... Obama admitted as much several days ago.

No, he did not. Stop!