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The academic scandal at UNC is currently being investigated by the state. State investigators have arrest and subpena powers. It is also illegal in many states to lie to investigators. (It is illegal to lie to Federal Authorities) The NCAA will probably wait until after the State of North Carolina finishes to start their inquiry. They will then just cut and paste what the state has produced.
The above being said, many of the people overseeing the investigation are either graduates of UNC or its Law School. They have huge offices with large rugs and access to big brooms. This will probably be the results of their investigation.
The two principal actors, Julius Nyangoro and Deborah Crowder (both now retired), acted in concert, but nobody in either the UNC Administration or Athletic Department had any knowledge of what they were doing. They managed for 18 years to fool everyone. They did this out of a misguided love for the university and a desire to help these young men continue to receive the benefits of an education there. (The fact that UNC directly benefited from their actions is irrelevant.) They take full responsibility for their actions and assure everyone they worked alone.
The NCAA will take this and say that rogue elements worked to deceive the university and thus the Athletic Department at UNC, thus little or no punishment is warranted.
Does this sound about right?
Partly.
The NCAA has been investigating this case on and off for years. The first time their investigation basically found that the paper classes had been offered to regular students as well as athlete's, thus, the athletes weren't getting anything that any other student at UNC could get.
Of course the findings of the Wainstein Report noted that academic advisors in the athletic department were in cahoots with the folks you mentioned above. This is a game changer imo.
But...if one thinks back to the Miami case, the one the NCAA bungled...it dragged on for several years for many reasons. For one thing, the misdeeds transpired for a decade and involved a lot of athletes and coaches. Imagine then how long it will take to interview all of the people involved going back about 20 years and involving 100's of athletes.
Further, several class action lawsuits have already been filed and more are likely to come.
Lawsuit claims UNC and NCAA broke promises in 'spectacular fashion' - CNN.com
In addition, Congress got involved back in December, writing the NCAA:
Reps. Elijah Cummings of Maryland and Tony Cardenas of California want the NCAA to explain how its practice of staying out of academic fraud cases if they involve all students promotes the NCAAs mission to maintain intercollegiate athletics as an integral part of the educational program and the athlete as an integral part of the student body.
Read more here: Two congressmen challenge NCAA’s handling of UNC academic fraud | Investigations Blog | NewsObserver.com
I understand the perception that UNC is a blue blood school and nothing is going to come of this scandal, but it seems highly unlikely, especially now that some heads have rolled/forced retirement...there will be many willing to cooperate with the NCAA. This was not the case three or four years ago.
It will take a long time in no small part due to the NCAA's failures with regard to Miami and Penn State. They cannot afford to repeat those mistakes in another high profile case.