Turnover Importance

#26

Doctrippin

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2013
Messages
808
Likes
826
#26
During the Vols and Arkansas game, the Vols only had 5 turnovers while Arkansas had 20. Arkansas only scored 4 points off Tennessee turnovers while the Vols scored 19 points off the Arkansas turnovers. Turnovers won the game for the Vols.
That's true. It means we can play lights out defense.... BUT..... an unranked AR team took us to the last 1.30 minutes in the game. We suck on offense right now and we have to fix that if we are going to win the conference and a trip to MM. GA and LSU both looked very good last night and then there is AL we have to beat next time
 
#27

cncchris33

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
23,720
Likes
18,783
#27
Another interesting non-conference/SEC split...

In 6 OOC games, Tennessee was +75 in total rebounds. +38 on ORebs. +37 on DRebs.

In 3 SEC games, Tennessee is -5 in total rebounds. +7 on ORebs. -12 on DRebs.

Part of that can be attributed to talent disparity in USC Upstate and Appy St vs the SEC.

Meanwhile, Pons has gone from averaging 5.66 rebs to 3.66 rebs, and he’s gone from averaging 1.17 blocks to averaging 4.33 blocks. Wonder if Pons may have reverted back to hunting blocks instead of rebounds, like last year?
 
#28

admiralkerr

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 16, 2012
Messages
60
Likes
39
#28
Given the turnover disparity, you would have thought we would have won easily. They just shot really well and we shot poorly.

I am not sure we really got out rebounded all that badly. Because of their turnovers and high shooting percentage, we had far fewer opportunities for defensive rebounds.
 
#30

cncchris33

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
23,720
Likes
18,783
#30
They outrebounded us by 9, but we had 33 missed shots and they only had 26 missed shots. So, both teams got around the same percentage of potential defensive rebounds available.
But wouldn't it then be fair to say that they were significantly more effective on the offensive boards if they got 6 on 26 missed shots and we also got 6 on 33 missed shots?
 
#32

Roustabout

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 11, 2010
Messages
18,597
Likes
14,471
#32
Yeah, and my assumption was they made up the distance with rebounding, but we made up ground there in the second to where they only ended up outrebounding us by five I believe. They just shot lights out and we, to put it nicely, didn’t
When teams shoot lights out in back to back games, can you really call your defense “elite.”
 
#33

Lankykong

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
2,767
Likes
1,143
#33
When teams shoot lights out in back to back games, can you really call your defense “elite.”
If your team is still top 10 in defensive efficiency on KenPom, yeah.

3 point percentage allowed is mostly luck based anyway, and we forced a ton of TOs. Can’t only look at one statistic as the determining factor of an elite defense.
 
#35

ndubvols

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2013
Messages
576
Likes
1,036
#35
Another interesting non-conference/SEC split...

In 6 OOC games, Tennessee was +75 in total rebounds. +38 on ORebs. +37 on DRebs.

In 3 SEC games, Tennessee is -5 in total rebounds. +7 on ORebs. -12 on DRebs.

Part of that can be attributed to talent disparity in USC Upstate and Appy St vs the SEC.

Meanwhile, Pons has gone from averaging 5.66 rebs to 3.66 rebs, and he’s gone from averaging 1.17 blocks to averaging 4.33 blocks. Wonder if Pons may have reverted back to hunting blocks instead of rebounds, like last year?
I think one of the contributing factors to this is opponents shooting percentages. I’m not sure what the averages for these group of games are, but 2/3 of the sec teams shot a decent percent higher than what we’ve given up on the season. This gives us less of an opportunity for defensive rebounds. Definitely a stat to monitor though, hopefully it doesn’t turn out to be as big of a problem as it was last year.
 
Likes: cncchris33
#36

kckempf

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
360
Likes
260
#36
When teams shoot lights out in back to back games, can you really call your defense “elite.”
With 20 forced turnovers the defensive efficiency ended up being around 1. It’s weird that we had something like 7 blocks and they still had over 50% shooting. Either their shot selection was incredible or they shot much better than usual.
 
#37

kckempf

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
360
Likes
260
#37
With 20 forced turnovers the defensive efficiency ended up being around 1. It’s weird that we had something like 7 blocks and they still had over 50% shooting. Either their shot selection was incredible or they shot much better than usual.
Correction, we blocked 9 shots. They only missed 14 shots within the arc, where all of the blocks happened. They missed 5 shots in the arc that were not blocked.
 
#38

tennrich1

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 5, 2008
Messages
4,449
Likes
3,860
#38
I think with the reputation of our defense, which is clearly elite, teams will be hyper-focused on scoring the basketball every night. And we will have to overcome that issue routinely. I always feel, whether basketball or football, turnovers always determine the outcome of a game in one respect or the other. The Vols seem to play with a "grind it out" mentality so we may see some odd stat lines this season but hopefully find a way to win anyways.
 
Likes: cardvolfan
#39

Roustabout

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 11, 2010
Messages
18,597
Likes
14,471
#39
Correction, we blocked 9 shots. They only missed 14 shots within the arc, where all of the blocks happened. They missed 5 shots in the arc that were not blocked.
What that tells me is UTs defense has great recovery. But recovery is due to a breakdown to begin with. Many of Pons’ blocks are on someone else’s guy.
 
Likes: cncchris33
#40

kckempf

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
360
Likes
260
#40
What that tells me is UTs defense has great recovery. But recovery is due to a breakdown to begin with. Many of Pons’ blocks are on someone else’s guy.
Pons has always gotten the majority of his blocks from help defense. The high block number combined with the high shot percentage suggests that Arkansas both chose high percentage shots and shot better than normal. Plenty of those shots were contested even without help defense, which is part of how Fulkerson ended up with 3 blocks.
 
Likes: cardvolfan
#41

cncchris33

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
23,720
Likes
18,783
#41
First half was bad, we lost by 7. Second half was better. We won by 12.
Second half was better (13-26, 50%), but first half wasn't bad (14-34, 41.2%). There seems to be this misinformed claim that we shot poorly, and it just isn't really true. We missed several layups and 8 attempts from 3, but we hit almost everything in the mid-range in that 1st half. The real reason it looked so ugly is because we were awful defensively. Arkansas was 11-17 on 2-pt shots in that half. Had they not been so sloppy and careless with the basketball, it could have gotten out of hand before halftime.

We weren't much better defensively in the 2nd half, either. Arkansas hit 10-18 2-pt shots, but cooled off from 3, a bit, and we upped our offensive efficiency while they continued to be careless with the ball.
 
#42

cncchris33

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
23,720
Likes
18,783
#42
I think one of the contributing factors to this is opponents shooting percentages. I’m not sure what the averages for these group of games are, but 2/3 of the sec teams shot a decent percent higher than what we’ve given up on the season. This gives us less of an opportunity for defensive rebounds. Definitely a stat to monitor though, hopefully it doesn’t turn out to be as big of a problem as it was last year.
Yes, that is true. 26 and 29 made FGs in the last two games represent season highs against us, but they both came on a high number of shots, as well. The Bama game more so than the Arkansas game.

Six OOC games average FG makes/attempts was 19.2/53.

Three SEC games average FG makes/attempts was 23.6-53.6. The Missouri game really drags that attempts average down because they only took 44 shots, 2nd lowest thru all 10 games, compared to Bama's 62 and Arkansas's 55.

So, on average, about 4.5 fewer opportunities. As you said, something to monitor.
 
#43

cncchris33

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
23,720
Likes
18,783
#43
What that tells me is UTs defense has great recovery. But recovery is due to a breakdown to begin with. Many of Pons’ blocks are on someone else’s guy.
I agree, and I think you have started to see a shift in Pons's defensive mindset which has resulted in 13 blocks thru 3 SEC games. His rebounding numbers have dipped as a result, but his block numbers have taken a huge jump. I think he was focused on rebounding better early on, and that has shifted, it seems.
 
#44

cncchris33

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
23,720
Likes
18,783
#44
Pons has always gotten the majority of his blocks from help defense. The high block number combined with the high shot percentage suggests that Arkansas both chose high percentage shots and shot better than normal. Plenty of those shots were contested even without help defense, which is part of how Fulkerson ended up with 3 blocks.
Yes, Arkansas got a lot of free runs into the paint and then hit layups or short runners in the paint. They got good looks because we played poor perimeter defense. They did just what Bama did, only they shot better than Bama.
 
#45

cardvolfan

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 13, 2007
Messages
3,293
Likes
2,853
#45
I think with the reputation of our defense, which is clearly elite, teams will be hyper-focused on scoring the basketball every night. And we will have to overcome that issue routinely. I always feel, whether basketball or football, turnovers always determine the outcome of a game in one respect or the other. The Vols seem to play with a "grind it out" mentality so we may see some odd stat lines this season but hopefully find a way to win anyways.
We've become the "hunted" and teams want to beat what is perceived by most to be the SEC's best team. Tennessee is getting everyone's best effort and we clearly have a bullseye on our jerseys. I'm quite frankly excited about a James, Johnson, Springer trio having significant minutes together on the court.
 
Likes: tennrich1
#46

Vol49er

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 6, 2018
Messages
1,832
Likes
3,813
#46
When teams shoot lights out in back to back games, can you really call your defense “elite.”
If one were to look at the last two games then they certainly wouldn't want to call our defense elite, thats for sure. No reason to use an artificially small sample, though. Its a worrying trend nonetheless, hopefully we bounce back tomorrow
 
#47

Roustabout

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 11, 2010
Messages
18,597
Likes
14,471
#47
If one were to look at the last two games then they certainly wouldn't want to call our defense elite, thats for sure. No reason to use an artificially small sample, though. Its a worrying trend nonetheless, hopefully we bounce back tomorrow
Unfortunately, that’s the only conference games we’ve played. Our win against Colorado is looking a lot better. They are 9-3 and buys beat Oregon.
 
#48

tennrich1

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 5, 2008
Messages
4,449
Likes
3,860
#48
We've become the "hunted" and teams want to beat what is perceived by most to be the SEC's best team. Tennessee is getting everyone's best effort and we clearly have a bullseye on our jerseys. I'm quite frankly excited about a James, Johnson, Springer trio having significant minutes together on the court.
Yeah I think it’s really about to get fun with those three!
 
Likes: cardvolfan
#49

Vol49er

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 6, 2018
Messages
1,832
Likes
3,813
#49
Unfortunately, that’s the only conference games we’ve played. Our win against Colorado is looking a lot better. They are 9-3 and buys beat Oregon.
Well and Missouri, who we held to 53 and who have otherwise scored 83 against #17 Oregon, 81 against #12 Illinois, and 81 against Arkansas (and 91 against Oral Roberts)
And yeah I said elsewhere on this board that I thought Colorado might be a paper tiger, as a lot of their wins were against fluff and they had already lost twice in conference, but that win against Oregon was big
 

VN Store




Sponsors
 

Top